Russia: weekly report (25.11-01.12)

OFFICIAL EVENT OVERVIEW

1. President of the Russian Federation

Compared to the previous period, last week was not eventful for the Russian president. At the same time, several important meetings were held and a number of statements were made, demonstrating the Kremlin’s readiness not only to increase escalation in foreign policy processes, but also to gradually form new negotiating positions to further discuss relations with key geopolitical players. 

Last week’s key event was Vladimir Putin’s visit to Astana for bilateral talks, as well as participation in the CSTO summit. 

On Wednesday, November 27, on the eve of the visit, the Kazakhstanskaya Pravda newspaper published an article by Vladimir Putin entitled “Russia – Kazakhstan: an alliance demanded by life and looking to the future”. Such publications are traditional on the eve of important visits and demonstrate the main emphases for the upcoming discussions and bilateral meetings. In particular, the article notes that Russia remains one of Kazakhstan’s largest economic partners, supporting projects within the Eurasian Economic Union. Mutual trade shows record figures: trade turnover last year exceeded 28 billion dollars, and settlements are increasingly conducted in national currencies, reducing the influence of external factors. More than 23 thousand Russian enterprises successfully operate in Kazakhstan, implementing major projects in industry, energy and high technology. The article pays special attention to humanitarian interaction: tens of thousands of Kazakhstani students study in Russian universities, and branches of leading Russian universities, including Moscow State University and MGIMO, are opening in the republic. Russia also promotes Russian-language education by supporting the construction of new schools.

In 2025, Russia and Kazakhstan will celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War. This important event emphasizes the common desire to preserve the memory of the heroic past, especially in the context of a multipolar world where both countries stand for equal cooperation and respect for international law. Russia and Kazakhstan work together within the CIS, CSTO, SCO and actively cooperate within the BRICS framework, where Kazakhstan has been invited to become a partner state. These initiatives strengthen not only regional stability but also global cooperation for sustainable development.

In the afternoon of November 27, Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana on a two-day state visit. He was met at the gangway by Kazakh President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, after which the two leaders went for informal talks and also took part via videoconference in the XX Forum of Interregional Cooperation held in Ufa. The event, dedicated to trade and economic interaction, gathered representatives of 30 Russian regions and 13 regions of Kazakhstan. Special attention was paid to the development of cross-border trade, industrial cooperation, logistics infrastructure and tourist exchanges.

As a result of the forum, a package of agreements was signed, including projects in the field of energy, machine building and agro-industrial complex. Among them are the launch of production of parts for KAMAZ in Kostanai, projects to modernize hydropower facilities and the construction of new power plants. Russia remains the largest investor in Kazakhstan, with total investments exceeding 13 billion dollars and mutual trade turnover reaching almost 30 billion dollars last year.

Special importance was given to educational projects. The first branch of the Kazakh National University named after Al-Farabi will be opened in Russia within the framework of the forum, which emphasizes the importance of humanitarian cooperation between the countries. Also, following the forum, the leaders of the two countries confirmed the focus on expanding cooperation in energy, transportation and tourism, as well as agreed to further develop joint logistics corridors, including the strategic route “North-South”. Kazakhstan granted a 50% discount on cargo transit, which demonstrates mutual interest in improving economic efficiency.

In the evening of the same day, the Akorda residence hosted talks between Vladimir Putin and Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, marking a new stage in the development of Russian-Kazakh relations. The talks included a small talk and extended international consultations. The central event was the signing of a joint statement on further deepening of strategic partnership in the new global order. This document reflects the aspiration of the two countries to strengthen mutual cooperation and adapt to the challenges of modernity. Within the framework of the state visit, a package of agreements covering key areas of interaction was concluded. 

Following the talks, the leaders made joint statements to the press, emphasizing the importance of working together to ensure stability and sustainable development of the region. Kasym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the historical importance of the visit and noted the role of Russia as a strategic partner of Kazakhstan. Vladimir Putin emphasized the effectiveness of the negotiations, which strengthened the foundations of strategic partnership. A number of documents were signed, including the Comprehensive Program of Economic Cooperation for 2021-2025 and the Joint Action Plan for 2024-2026.

The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cultural and educational ties. They discussed initiatives to build new schools, improve the quality of education in the Russian language and joint cultural projects. Concluding their speeches, the presidents expressed satisfaction with the results of the visit and outlined ambitious plans to further deepen the strategic partnership aimed at the well-being of the peoples of the two countries.

On Thursday, 28 November, a regular session of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was held in Astana. The event was attended by the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not attend the summit, continuing the line of “freezing” Armenia’s membership in the organization. 

The meeting discussed topical issues of international and regional security, summarized the results of co-operation within the CSTO, and considered plans for jointly celebrating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War.  The summit resulted in the signing of a number of documents, including a declaration of the CSTO Collective Security Council and a decision on further strengthening allied relations within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. 

For his part, Vladimir Putin noted that the CSTO continues to play a key role in ensuring security in the Eurasian space, stressing the importance of further strengthening interaction between the organization’s member states. In his speech, the Russian president emphasized the importance of allied relations and joint counteraction to security threats. He spoke in detail about the situation around the so-called “SWO” against Ukraine, emphasizing the escalation of the conflict and the use of Western long-range weapons. Special attention was paid to the topic of armaments. Putin stated that the production capacity of Russian military enterprises significantly exceeds the aggregate figures of NATO countries. For the first time in combat conditions, the hypersonic system “Oreshnik” was tested, which, according to him, has no analogues in the world. In addition, Putin noted the role of soldiers in determining the outcome of any military conflict, emphasizing the motivation and determination of Russian fighters to defend their homeland. He also thanked the participating countries for the memory of the Great Patriotic War and invited them to take part in the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Victory in Moscow.

The summit resulted in the signing of key documents, including a declaration on further strengthening allied relations. The chairmanship of the CSTO was handed over to Kyrgyzstan. Vladimir Putin assured that Russia would provide full support to Sadyr Zhaparov in carrying out this mission.

Armenia’s absence at the summit sparked discussions among experts and politicians. Some representatives of the Armenian opposition expressed the opinion that such a position of Yerevan requires certainty on the issue of CSTO membership. 

Following his state visit to Kazakhstan and the CSTO summit, Vladimir Putin held a press conference to answer journalists’ questions. Below are the key points from the Russian president’s statements: 

• “We have billions of investments in the economy of Kazakhstan, I have already said, under 30 billion trade turnover, it is growing constantly. Traditionally, the areas of our cooperation have been established. These are space, energy, and, nowadays, high technologies. Now it is possible to expand cooperation on energy projects in the field of nuclear energy, as we are already working together. Kazakhstan is the largest uranium producer in the world, and we are present in uranium deposits in Kazakhstan. In the field of industry, we have good prospects, especially in the field of cooperation”.

• “One of the problems was and partly remains the problem of settlements, but we have already converted over 80 percent of all settlements into national currencies. And this, of course, facilitates our work in the financial sphere.

• “I assess that we have very good prospects for the future. Yesterday, we discussed these prospects informally with President Kasym-Jomart Kemelevich over dinner all evening. I repeat once again: I assess them as highly positive.

• “As for the CSTO organization as such, of course, it is not just alive, it is alive and developing, and all countries that actively participate in its work are interested in maintaining these contacts both now and in the future.”

• “There are complicated processes going on in Afghanistan. We hope that we will be able to build relations with Afghanistan, and we cannot ignore the fact that the situation there is stabilizing. We have relations with the current leadership of Afghanistan, they will develop.”

• “Now as for Armenia’s position. Each country has the right to choose what it wants to do and how it wants to do it in the field of ensuring its security. I think that the current situation between Armenia and the CSTO is most likely dictated by internal political processes in Armenia itself. And of course, it is all connected with the consequences of the crisis in Karabakh. But I would like to emphasize that the CSTO has nothing to do with it.

• “Are there risks in strikes [with long-range missiles] on Russian territory – I’ve also talked about this many times. Of course there are. Because it means involving Western countries directly, involving them in an armed conflict. Well, how could it be? If their specialists lay down a flight mission, transmit intelligence information to themselves and coordinate strikes on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation. Of course they do. And I said that today they got an answer. For two days or so our Armed Forces have been launching a retaliatory strike. And today it was quite comprehensive: 90 missiles were used in the strike and 100 unmanned strike vehicles. We hit 17 facilities on the territory of Ukraine, different ones: military, military-industrial, and support facilities that work for the armed forces and industrial defense enterprises.”

• “And I would like to emphasize once again, I want to say once again now: of course, we will respond to such acts of aggression against the Russian Federation. How and when, with what weapons – this will depend on the targets that will be selected by the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense, because for each target we must use a different instrument, a weapon that is suitable for these purposes. Well, let’s say that it is pointless to strike a hypersonic missile at a seemingly insignificant target, small in volume, because it is like shooting sparrows with a cannon. But we will use the means at our disposal on significant targets, including – I also said this – we do not exclude the use of Oreshnik on military industrial facilities or decision-making centers, including in Kiev. Keeping in mind that the Kiev authorities today, as I have said, are continuing their attempts to strike at our vital facilities, including in St. Petersburg and Moscow”.

• “As for this, the missile we used, the appropriate elements were used, they are also defeatable elements. I’ve already said, these are quite powerful elements that heat up to a temperature of 4,000 degrees. I don’t know, you can look it up on the Internet, but on the surface of the Sun, I think it’s 5,600-6,000 degrees. It is comparable to the temperature on the surface of the Sun”.

• “What do you think, at the level of common sense, if the country with which we are, in fact, currently engaged in hostilities becomes a nuclear power, what do we do? In that case, we will take and use all – I want to emphasize this, exactly all – of the means of defeat available to Russia, everything. We will not allow this to happen.

• “We will not allow this to happen in Ukraine itself, we will follow every step that happens there. This was once a very high-tech, industrially developed republic of the Soviet Union. But everything has been lost, or almost everything that Soviet Ukraine could be proud of, has been lost. Therefore, today it will be almost impossible to do almost from scratch. Something dirty, as they say, a dirty bomb, just waste from nuclear power plants can be collected, of course, but even in this case the response will be absolutely adequate to the threats of the Russian Federation”.

• “You know, in Soviet times there was such a joke about weather forecasts. The forecast was: ‘Anything is possible today during the day'”.

• “As for the fluctuation of the ruble exchange rate, it is not only related to inflationary processes. It is also connected with payments to the budget, it is connected with oil prices. There are a lot of factors of seasonal nature. Therefore, on the whole, in my opinion, the situation is under control, and there are no grounds for panic, as you said. Yes, the processes in our country and in neighboring countries are not easy, but they are under control.

• “We don’t interfere in domestic political processes, we don’t meddle at all, we don’t touch it. But I can’t say the same about our Western ‘colleagues’. Whoever pays, orders the music, and they play it in the squares”.

• “Our attitude to the settlement of the situation in Ukraine has not changed. We are ready for the negotiation process on the terms that were set out in my June speech to the Foreign Ministry leadership”.

• “Europe has ceased to exist as an independent center of world politics. It dances to the tune of the American administration, even to its own detriment”.

• “We are ready for dialog with the United States, including with the future administration. However, the fall of the American political system emphasizes its degradation. Nevertheless, the United States remains a great country.”

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Last week turned out to be more intense for the Russian Foreign Ministry, especially in light of the intensification of the Middle East track, as well as increased escalation in the information space in relations with the West. Below are the key events worth paying attention to:

1. On Tuesday, November 26, political consultations between Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Rudenko and Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of the Philippines Maria Teresa Lazaro took place in Manila. The parties discussed a wide range of issues related to bilateral cooperation, including the development of political dialog, trade and economic interaction and humanitarian initiatives. Special attention was paid to the coordination of actions within the UN and multilateral organizations of the Asia-Pacific region, such as ASEAN, in particular in the format of the Russia-ASEAN Dialogue.

2. Speaking at the 43rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Subjects of the Russian Federation under the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov emphasized the steady development of Russian-Chinese ties despite Western pressure and the importance of their expansion in bilateral and multilateral formats, including BRICS. The main topic was agricultural diplomacy, which strengthens cooperation with the Global South and East, supporting food security. Lavrov recalled the food supplies to needy countries initiated by Vladimir Putin and the creation of the BRICS grain exchange. Special attention was paid to the initiative of the Tambov region to create the International Center for Food Security. Lavrov noted the contribution of agrarian regions and agricultural attachés to the promotion of Russian diplomacy. 

3. On the same day, British Ambassador to Moscow Nicholas Casey was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry and strongly protested against the actions of Edward Wilkes, the second secretary of the British Embassy. The Russian side accused the diplomat of providing false information when obtaining an entry permit, which violates the Russian law on entry and exit procedures. Wilkes was also found to be linked to the UK intelligence services and to have conducted intelligence and subversive activities in Russia. In response to these violations, Wilkes’ accreditation was revoked under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. The Russian side announced the introduction of stricter questionnaire requirements for British diplomats and recommended that British citizens provide accurate information when submitting visa applications.

4. Later, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the introduction of new personal sanctions against representatives of the British political establishment, military structures, high-tech sector and journalists. The reason for this was the aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric of the British authorities, their support for Ukraine and the introduction of illegitimate unilateral restrictions. Moscow emphasized that such a policy of London leads to the escalation of the conflict and does not contribute to stability. As a retaliatory measure, the Russian “stop list” included key British officials, military personnel and journalists who are now banned from entering Russia. Among them are Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, as well as representatives of high-tech companies and well-known journalists (30 people in total).

5. Mikhail Bogdanov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East and African Countries, met with Iraqi President Abdellatif Rashid in Baghdad. The sides discussed issues of strengthening Russian-Iraqi ties, including political dialog, and paid attention to the situation inside and around Iraq. Russia expressed support for Iraq’s efforts to strengthen stability, improve the socio-economic situation and enhance the country’s role in pan-Arab affairs. Special attention was paid to regional security. The sides expressed the need for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, as well as to prevent the conflict from spreading to neighboring states, including Iraq. The common desire for a political and diplomatic settlement of the Middle East conflict in accordance with the UN decisions and the need for urgent humanitarian assistance to the victims were reaffirmed.

6. Speaking at the Meeting of Heads of CIS Security and Intelligence Agencies in Moscow, Sergey Lavrov emphasized the importance of collective efforts in ensuring regional security. The minister noted that the main challenge remains the actions of the “collective West” seeking to maintain dominance through information wars and “color revolutions. Lavrov focused on the fight against terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking, stressing the importance of the recently adopted Program of Cooperation in the field of deradicalization for 2025-2027. He also pointed to the need to protect the CIS external borders, especially in the context of the Afghan threat, and to create conditions for legal migration. The Minister condemned NATO’s expansion into the Asia-Pacific region and public threats against Russia, calling for building regional security mechanisms without interference from external players. He emphasized the importance of CIS cooperation with the SCO, the CSTO and the Union State for strengthening stability in Eurasia.

7. On Wednesday, November 27, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper published an interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In it, the Foreign Minister commented on key international issues, touching on anti-colonial practices, the climate agenda, the crisis in the Middle East and the situation in Ukraine. In particular, Lavrov emphasized that the exploitation of the resources of the Global South remains a constant goal of the West. He condemned the use of sanctions and unequal agreements, highlighting examples of US financial fraud in Haiti, Iraq and Afghanistan. The Minister pointed out the injustice of the international division of labor, where poor countries receive minimal benefits. Russia, together with the BRICS, is in favor of reforming the Bretton Woods institutions to reflect the new economic reality. Lavrov also highlighted the importance of depoliticizing the climate agenda, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to the energy transition. He warned against a forced “green” transformation leading to higher prices and worsening energy poverty. Russia supports the development of all fuels, betting on natural gas as a transitional solution. The Russian Foreign Minister condemned Israeli aggression and US support, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and the realization of a two-state settlement formula. He emphasized the importance of focusing on the opinion of the countries of the region rather than external players. Commenting on the situation in Ukraine Lavrov said that escalation, including missile strikes on Russian territory, distances the prospects for a settlement. Russia firmly adheres to the goals of the special military operation and insists on demilitarization, denazification and recognition of territorial realities. A settlement is possible only if threats to Russia’s security are eliminated and the rights of the Russian-speaking population are protected.

8. On the same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin held consultations in Beijing with representatives of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, including Liu Bin and Li Hui, to discuss key post-Soviet issues. Discussing the Ukrainian issue, the Russian side emphasized the need to address the causes of the conflict, including security threats from the West and the trampling of the rights of the Russian-speaking population. Moscow praised Beijing’s efforts to promote a political and diplomatic settlement. The consultations also highlighted the high dynamics of cooperation with Central Asian countries and the positive role of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. The importance of stabilization efforts in the South Caucasus and concern over the situation in Moldova were stressed. In addition, the importance of such associations as the EAEU, the CSTO and the CIS for strengthening security and interaction in Eurasia was emphasized.

9. On November 27, a long-term cessation of hostilities agreement between Israel and Lebanon’s Hizbullah was announced to have entered into force. The agreement includes a 60-day transition period during which the Israeli military will withdraw from Lebanese territory and Hizbullah will withdraw its forces north of the Litani River in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Additional Lebanese army units will be deployed in the border zone, and the implementation of the agreement will be monitored by a committee led by the U.S. military with the participation of France, Lebanon, Israel and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow views the agreement as an important step toward reducing tensions in the Middle East, noting that the peak of escalation may have passed. Russia expresses hope for strict compliance with the agreements and the creation of conditions for sustainable stabilization in the region. The Russian side intends to continue to participate actively in international efforts to achieve a comprehensive political and diplomatic settlement based on the resolutions of the Security Council and the UNGA.

10. During his visit to Astana and bilateral talks between Russia and Kazakhstan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, responding to a question about the ongoing strikes on Russian territory using ATACMS missiles, said: “We have many proverbs reflecting the character of our people: ‘Measure seven times and cut once’, ‘God has endured and commanded us to endure’. But patience, if it is endlessly tested, is bound to come to an end.” He also added: “Another proverb that should be in the brains of Western officials in this situation is ‘the Russian man takes a long time to harness…'”.

11. On the margins of the 10th Global Forum of the UN Alliance of Civilizations in Cascais, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin met with UN Secretary-General António Guterres.  During the conversation, they discussed key issues of Russia’s interaction with the UN Secretariat, including current international and regional issues. Special attention was paid to the situation in the Middle East, in particular in the occupied Palestinian territories and Lebanon, as well as possible ways out of the current crisis. In addition, the parties considered the tasks related to the normalization of Russian supplies of agricultural products and fertilizers to the world market. This discussion was held in the context of the implementation of the memorandum between Russia and the UN aimed at strengthening global food security.

12. On Thursday, November 28, following a meeting on the sidelines of the CSTO summit, the foreign ministers of the organization’s member states stressed the need to strengthen regional cooperation on issues related to Afghanistan, paying special attention to countering the threats of terrorism, extremism and drug crime. It was noted that an inclusive government in Afghanistan, representing the interests of all ethnic and social groups, is an important step towards peace and stability. Of particular concern was the increase in terrorist threats, especially in provinces adjacent to the Central Asian region. Keeping the territory of Afghanistan and neighboring countries free of military infrastructure of third States is recognized as an important step. The Ministers called on the de facto authorities of Afghanistan to intensify the fight against terrorism and the drug threat, and noted the importance of continuing international efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people and to remove unilateral sanctions. The course on implementation of the CSTO Targeted Interstate Program on strengthening the Tajik-Afghan border was confirmed. 

13. The Foreign Ministers of the CSTO member States, marking the 20th anniversary of the Organization’s observer status in the UN General Assembly, expressed satisfaction with the development of partnership relations between the CSTO and the UN. Compliance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and active co-operation between the organizations within the framework of Chapter VIII of the UN Charter were confirmed. It was stressed that the cooperation covers key areas, including peacekeeping, countering terrorism, organized crime and drug trafficking. Joint work in the field of peacekeeping and conflict resolution, as well as combating natural and man-made disasters was named an important part of cooperation.

14. On November 28, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko held political consultations with Thai Vice Foreign Minister Robert Chalitian in Bangkok. During the talks, the parties discussed prospects for the development of Russian-Thai cooperation in trade and investment, scientific, technical and humanitarian spheres, as well as the expansion of the legal framework for bilateral ties. The sides reaffirmed their desire to strengthen comprehensive contacts at various levels and exchanged views on the international and regional agenda, noting the closeness of the two countries’ approaches. Special attention was paid to strengthening interaction within the framework of the ASEAN-centric mechanisms and the Russia-ASEAN Dialogue.

3. Government of the Russian Federation

The Russian government worked in a regular mode last week. Below are the main events worth paying attention to:

On Monday, November 25, an operational meeting with deputy prime ministers was held under the chairmanship of Mikhail Mishustin. The key topics of development of social, educational and industrial spheres were discussed. Mishustin emphasized the importance of improving the quality and safety of children’s goods produced in Russia. A six-year roadmap was approved to expand the infrastructure for the production of goods such as toys, clothes, books and sports equipment. The Ministry of Industry and Trade was instructed to report annually on the results of the work in order to keep this topic under constant control. Also discussed was the implementation of social contracts, allowing citizens to undergo retraining, start their own business or develop a private subsidiary farm. An additional 650 million rubles has been allocated for 20 regions to provide financial assistance to low-income families. Golikova has been instructed to ensure timely and full fulfillment of obligations to citizens. Special attention is paid to the development of a world-class campus at Bauman Moscow State Technical University. More than 1.5 billion rubles have been allocated to equip the cluster “Quantum Park”, which will be spent on equipment and preparation of premises. “Quantum Park” will become a key scientific center contributing to the training of specialists capable of strengthening Russia’s technological and industrial potential.

Vladimir Putin has appointed Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev as special representative for the development of the North-South international transportation corridor. The relevant decree came into force upon signing. The North-South International Transport Corridor connects Russia, India, Iran, the Persian Gulf and South Asia, offering an alternative route bypassing the Suez Canal. This corridor significantly reduces the time and cost of transportation, annually transporting up to 25 million tons of cargo from Europe via Iran to the Middle East and South Asia.  

On Tuesday, November 26, Mikhail Mishustin held a strategic session dedicated to improving the energy and resource efficiency of the Russian economy. In his opening remarks, he emphasized that these areas play a key role for the sustainable development of the country and the achievement of national goals. He noted that the modernization of infrastructure, conversion of boiler houses to more economical fuels and introduction of renewable energy sources have already brought tangible results. However, further work was needed, taking into account the new energy strategy covering the period up to 2050, which was being finalized. Special attention was paid to the need to reduce the energy intensity of the gross domestic product, which should help increase the production of goods and services. Mishustin stressed the importance of upgrading equipment at generating stations, replacing outdated technologies and active participation of regions in the modernization process, especially the Far East, where energy consumption is growing faster than the Russian average. The role of the construction industry as one of the drivers of the economy was also discussed. In this context, it was highlighted that it is necessary to continue introducing innovative technologies, optimize administrative procedures and improve resource management to achieve maximum efficiency.

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak made a working visit to Baghdad, where he held a trilateral meeting with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, and Ali Maarij, Acting Minister of Oil of Iraq. During the meeting, the importance of maintaining stability and balance in the global oil markets was discussed. The participants noted the key role of the OPEC+ group in these processes, and reaffirmed the commitment of all parties to the production cut agreement. It was emphasized that voluntary reductions, including measures agreed by the eight participating countries, and compensation for excess production remain priorities. The Iraqi side reaffirmed its full commitment to these commitments and submitted an updated schedule for offsetting production increases to the OPEC Secretariat.

On Wednesday, November 27, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak held trilateral talks in Astana with the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Almasadam Satkaliev and the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud. The parties emphasized the key role of the OPEC+ group in ensuring stability and balance in the world oil markets. They reaffirmed commitment to the agreement on oil production cuts, including voluntary reductions agreed by the eight member countries and the obligation to compensate for previous overproduction. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister reiterated his country’s readiness to comply with the terms of the agreement, including voluntary production cuts and the implementation of the updated schedule of compensation for increased production submitted to the OPEC Secretariat.

On Thursday, November 28, a meeting of the Russian Government chaired by Mikhail Mishustin was held in Moscow. The main focus was on the execution of the federal budget for 9 months of 2024, the development of transport corridors and subsidies to support housing and utilities in the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine, which Russia positions as “new regions”. Mikhail Mishustin noted that the budget was executed with a surplus, reaching 580 billion rubles due to the growth of revenues from non-resource industries and the oil and gas sector. Support for innovative enterprises, the launch of new production facilities and the implementation of national projects remain key priorities. Anton Siluanov said that the GDP growth rate amounted to 4.2%, while the federal budget revenues reached Br26.3 trillion. Expenditures amounted to 68% of the annual plan, which is one of the best indicators in recent years. Special attention was paid to social programs, such as family mortgages and support for teachers. The development of international transportation corridors, including “North-South” was discussed. Mikhail Mishustin emphasized the importance of increasing freight traffic to friendly countries and updating road maps to improve the competitiveness of routes. Progress in modernizing infrastructure, including railroads and seaports, was also reviewed.

On Friday, November 29, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak paid a working visit to the Republic of Mali. This is the first visit of a representative of Russia’s top leadership to this African country. The delegation included representatives of the Russian business community. During the trip Novak held talks with President of the Transitional Period Assimi Goyta and Prime Minister of the Transitional Period Abdoulaye Maiga, as well as met with members of the Government of Mali. The main topics of discussion were strengthening trade and economic cooperation, development of energy, transportation, infrastructure, agriculture and mining.

After Mali, Alexander Novak visited Burkina Faso, which was also the first visit by a representative of this level from Russia in the country’s history.  In the country’s capital, Ouagadougou, Novak held a meeting with Prime Minister of the Transitional Period Apollinaire Joachim Kielem de Tambela. The talks focused on bilateral cooperation, including the development of economic ties and interaction in the international agenda.

Alexander Novak also visited Niger at the head of the Russian delegation. In Niamey, the capital of the country, Alexander Novak held meetings with Ali Mahaman Lamine Zein, Prime Minister of the Transitional Period of the Republic of Niger, and Abdurahman Chiani, Head of State and Chairman of the National Council for the Defense of the Homeland. The sides emphasized the importance of bilateral partnership and discussed key areas of cooperation. Special attention was paid to the possibilities of practical cooperation in the spheres of energy, agriculture, infrastructure projects, geological exploration and development of minerals. Prospects for cooperation in the humanitarian sphere, including education, culture and sports, were also discussed.

OVERVIEW OF IMPORTANT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS IN RUSSIA

1. Sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate: causes and consequences

Last week, the Russian ruble weakened significantly, reaching its lowest values since March 2022. As of the end of the week, the dollar exchange rate amounted to RUB 106, while the euro – RUB 112. Such a fall caused a wide discussion in expert circles and social networks, where the reasons for the weakening of the national currency are attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions. Some observers attribute the fall in the exchange rate to the market’s reaction to the recent strikes by Western long-range missiles on Russian territory and Vladimir Putin’s statements about a possible tough response. However, the reality points to deeper economic reasons as well as financial moves by the Kremlin to address current challenges.

It is important to note that the fall of the ruble is directly related to several factors. First, problems with export revenues. Recent US sanctions against Gazprombank, a key player in settlements for Russian gas, have created difficulties for foreign currency earnings. As a result, the volume of foreign currency coming into the country has temporarily decreased. Secondly, support for exporters. With the Central Bank’s key rate high, the Russian authorities decided to use the weak ruble as a way to support exporters. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov directly stated that the current exchange rate is favorable for export-oriented companies, which helps them compensate for the high cost of borrowed funds. Thirdly, the increase in budget revenues. Ruble devaluation is a traditional tool for increasing tax revenues from exporters. In the context of war and growing defense spending, the authorities seek to increase budget revenues by using a weak currency to increase tax revenues from oil, gas and other commodity exports.

Despite the possibility of using devaluation to solve current problems, this instrument is not infinitely sustainable. The fall of the ruble leads to an increase in inflation, which negatively affects the purchasing power of citizens. The increase in prices for imported goods also creates additional pressure on the domestic market. On the other hand, relatively low external debt and weak dependence on critical imports make devaluation less painful for the Russian economy than for many other countries.

It can already be predicted that further dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will depend on several factors. First, oil and gas prices, which remain the main source of budget revenues. Secondly, sanctions pressure, especially on the financial sector and key exporters. Third, the state of the economy and financial markets in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

In the short term, the ruble may continue to weaken in the event of new sanctions or force majeure. However, strengthening is possible in the case of rising export prices, easing of sanctions pressure or reduction of military spending. It is important to note that during the press conference following his visit to Astana, Vladimir Putin commented on the situation with the ruble, saying that this factor does not pose a serious threat to further political processes and does not require adjustments. 

2. Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Afghanistan: strengthening cooperation and security issues

On Monday, November 25, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu paid an unannounced working visit to Afghanistan. During the one-day trip, he held meetings with acting Afghan Deputy Prime Ministers Abdul Kabir and Abdul Ghani Baradar, as well as with Interior and Defense Ministers Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mohammad Yaqub. The visit was the first of its kind since the change of power in Afghanistan.

During the visit, key issues of regional security, combating international terrorism and strengthening bilateral cooperation were discussed. The main focus was on stabilizing the situation on Afghanistan’s border with Central Asia, which remains a zone of heightened tension for neighboring states, including members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Within the framework of the visit, the topic of humanitarian and military assistance to Afghanistan was touched upon. Sergey Shoigu offered support in the form of supplies of medical equipment, food, and means to strengthen the security system. The Russian side expressed readiness to exchange experience in border control and the fight against drug trafficking, which poses a serious threat to the entire region.

Shoigu’s visit underscores Afghanistan’s growing role in the regional security system. Moscow is interested in Kabul becoming a partner capable of effectively countering extremist threats. Special attention is paid to cooperation within multilateral formats, such as the CSTO and the SCO, as well as within the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan.

3. Statement by Sergey Naryshkin on Ukraine

The director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, said on Tuesday, November 26, that Russia categorically rejects any proposals to freeze the conflict in Ukraine, including the Korean scenario. He said this to journalists following the 20th meeting of the Council of Heads of Security and Intelligence Services of the CIS member states.

Naryshkin emphasized that Russia is interested in achieving a “durable and long-term peace” that would ensure security not only for Russia but also for the whole of Europe. He noted that any attempts to freeze the conflict, whether through the creation of a demilitarized zone or preservation of the current status quo, are unacceptable to Moscow.

“We need a peace that will guarantee long-term stability and security for Russian citizens and the country as a whole. This peace must be ensured on the entire territory of the European continent,” Naryshkin said.

He paid special attention to the reasons that led to the current conflict. According to him, a settlement is possible only if the “root causes” are eliminated, among which he mentioned NATO’s eastward expansion and alleged discrimination against the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine.

The SVR director also emphasized that Russia was ready for peace talks, but on the terms previously voiced by President Vladimir Putin. Among the key demands is the transfer of control over Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions to Russia.

RESULTS OF THE WEEK: ANALYTICAL REVIEW BY ASCOLTA

Фото 5

The past week brought new challenges to the Russian Federation. First of all, they were related to the fact that the situation in Syria suddenly got out of control: rebel troops from the Sunni radical group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham captured Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo. These actions could bring very serious changes to the balance of power in the Middle East and mix the cards in the Kremlin’s political game: if it suddenly turns out that Putin, considered the power that controls some levers of influence in the Middle East, is unable to influence the situation, it will weaken Russia’s negotiating position during the projected meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States. 

In addition, there are doubts about President Turkiye Erdogan’s sincerity regarding allied prospects in Syria – Erdogan seems to have started an independent game, without taking Russia’s interests into account. 

In this situation, the whole house of cards of Middle East policy, carefully built by Russia over the past decades – from the “Primakov Doctrine” to the introduction of troops into Syria – may come tumbling down. 

At the same time, Russia began to send signals about its readiness to start negotiating a ceasefire (or peace terms) in Ukraine. The conditions on Russia’s part have not undergone significant changes. They are still centered around the demands to recognize the captured territories and the neutral status of Ukraine. At the same time, it is worth noting that Ukraine’s position has again undergone some changes: it is no longer so categorical in its demand to return to the 1991 borders and the exclusively military way of resolving the conflict. 

Inside Russia, processes have also intensified that may bring a new elite into the managerial environment – people who have gone through the war in Ukraine. Not only are new presidential programs being initiated for them, but they are also being offered all sorts of seminars and trainings to understand the basics of public administration. It seems that Putin is creating his “oprichnina,” which will create the prerequisites for a painless transit of power in the Russian Federation over the next few years.