Russia for the week: 18.11-24.11

OFFICIAL EVENT OVERVIEW

1. President of the Russian Federation

Last week in the Kremlin was devoted to the escalation of the foreign policy situation. And it was about raising the stakes in relations with Europe, in the context of reduced energy supplies, as well as with the United States, in the context of major geopolitical processes. At the same time, it was NATO that posed the main challenge, which was the use of an unidentified type of intercontinental ballistic missile. At the same time, while actively strengthening the foreign policy track, the Kremlin continued to emphasize domestic political processes as well. 

Vladimir Putin started his working week with a meeting with the so-called “governor” of the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhya Region, Yevhen Balitskyy, who reported on the construction and renovation of important social infrastructure – schools and hospitals, road construction, the situation in the industrial and agricultural sectors. It is noted that an important part of the meeting was the discussion of Zaporizhzhya NPP. It is important to note that since last week, Russian troops have become significantly more active in the Zaporizhzhya direction, and many observers consider this section of the front as the most likely for a new Russian offensive.

1. On Tuesday, November 19, Vladimir Putin signed a decree “on the approval of the foundations of Russia’s state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence”. This event took place against the background of information about the firing of Western-made long-range missiles on Russian territory. This document defines Russia’s approaches to the use of nuclear weapons and specifies the conditions under which the country can use them. According to the new doctrine, the decision to use nuclear weapons is made solely by the president, while the policy itself has a declared defensive nature and considers the use of nuclear capabilities as a last resort. The document lists several key situations in which Russia could resort to the use of nuclear weapons. This is possible in response to the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies, as well as in the case of conventional aggression if it threatens the very existence of the state. In addition, the use of nuclear weapons is permitted if reliable information is received about the launch of ballistic missiles directed at the territory of Russia or its allies, or in the case of attacks on critical state or military facilities that could disrupt the country’s ability to retaliate. Particular attention is paid to provisions concerning aggression by military blocs. An attack by any member state of a military alliance against Russia or its allies would be considered an act of aggression by the entire alliance, which could be grounds for a nuclear response. The new doctrine replaced the previous version adopted in 2020. It not only clarifies the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, but also expands the list of potential threats under which this could happen. This step has caused considerable resonance both inside and outside Russia, emphasizing the importance of nuclear policy in the context of national security and global stability.

2. On Wednesday, November 20, Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with President of the Central African Republic Faustin Arcange Touadera. The two leaders discussed the strengthening of bilateral relations in the political, economic and humanitarian spheres, as well as regional issues, including combating the terrorist threat and ensuring stability in the CAR. Putin reiterated Russia’s readiness to continue providing assistance in strengthening the economy, security and sovereignty of the CAR. For his part, Touadera expressed gratitude for Russia’s support. 

3. Putin also held a meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who reported on the Government’s completion of work on the formation of eight national projects aimed at ensuring Russia’s technological leadership until 2030. The focus was on key areas: the industrial sector, new materials and chemistry, transportation mobility, space, healthcare, food security, new nuclear and energy technologies, and bioeconomy. Manturov noted that it is planned to allocate about 3 trillion rubles from the federal level for the implementation of projects until 2030, with comparable volumes of investment from the regions and businesses. Among the priority tasks are the production of 40 thousand robots, the creation of new high-speed trains, the development of the space industry and closed nuclear cycle technologies. Special attention was paid to the personnel policy necessary for the successful implementation of projects and measures to stimulate domestic demand for innovative products.

4. On Thursday, November 21, Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani. The leaders discussed key issues of bilateral cooperation, including the implementation of major energy projects, as well as interaction in trade and economic, transportation and logistics and humanitarian spheres. Special attention was paid to the continuation of coordination within the framework of “OPEC Plus”, which allows maintaining stability in the global oil market. The sides also discussed the situation in the Middle East amid growing regional tensions. The parties expressed mutual interest in deepening cooperation, continuing to build on the agreements reached during the talks in Moscow in October 2023.

5. On the same day, Vladimir Putin made a statement in which he informed Russian citizens as well as the international community about the strikes by Western long-range weapons on Russian territory and the response. In his speech, Putin accused the United States and NATO of escalating the conflict, emphasizing that the use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and HIMARS missiles against military facilities in the Bryansk and Kursk regions was impossible without the direct involvement of specialists from Western countries. According to him, these actions have turned the conflict in Ukraine into a global one. The Russian president said the Russian army launched a combined strike on a defense plant in Dnipropetrovsk using a new hypersonic ballistic missile “Oreshnik”. The test of the missile, developed in response to the breakup of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missile Elimination Treaty, was successful. Putin emphasized that Russia reserves the right to use weapons against military facilities of countries that facilitate attacks on Russian territory. The president also noted that Moscow’s actions will depend on further steps by the US and its allies, warning of a mirror response in case of increased aggression. Putin concluded by pointing to the US responsibility for the destruction of the international security system and declared Russia’s readiness for both peace talks and any escalation scenario. 

6. On Friday, November 22, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomai Fay at the initiative of the Senegalese side. The leaders discussed issues of strengthening Russian-Senegalese relations, emphasizing the importance of cooperation in trade, economic and investment spheres. Special attention was paid to promising projects in energy, transportation and agriculture. Putin noted the importance of more active interaction between Russian business and Senegalese partners. The conversation also discussed the difficult situation in the Sahara-Sahel region and West Africa, where instability persists due to the actions of terrorist groups. It is noted that Putin invited Bassirou Diomai Faye to visit Russia. The invitation was gratefully accepted.

7. Vladimir Putin also held a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, representatives of the military-industrial complex and the developers of Russia’s new medium-range Oreshnik missile system. The Russian president expressed gratitude to the designers, scientists and production teams for creating the latest hypersonic non-nuclear equipped ballistic missile. According to Putin, tests of the Oreshnik system, conducted on November 21 in combat conditions, confirmed its unique characteristics and high efficiency. He noted that the missile is capable of overcoming any existing missile defense systems, and its use can be comparable in effect to the use of strategic weapons. The meeting also decided to mass produce the Oreshnik missile system and put it into service of the Strategic Missile Forces. The expansion of the line of medium- and shorter-range missiles under development was also discussed. Representatives of the military-industrial complex reported on the readiness of the enterprises to ensure serial production of the complex and fulfill the tasks of the state defense order. The commander of the Strategic Missile Forces said that Oreshnik is capable of hitting targets throughout Europe, which significantly expands the capabilities of non-nuclear strategic deterrence. Putin emphasized that the Oreshnik system is based on modern Russian technologies and demonstrates the potential of the domestic school of missile engineering. The President expressed confidence that the new missile system will become a reliable guarantor of Russia’s security and sovereignty. The developers of the system will be presented with state awards.

8. On Sunday, November 24, Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The leaders continued discussing the issues raised at their meeting in Kazan on October 23, focusing on improving the efficiency of bilateral trade and economic cooperation. The sides agreed to hold additional contacts at the level of specialized agencies to implement the agreements reached. A number of international topics were also discussed during the meeting. At the same time, it is important to note that the conversation took place against the backdrop of two important factors. First, Erdogan’s rhetoric regarding the need to freeze the war in Ukraine along the front line has recently changed noticeably. Second, Putin’s visit to Turkey to meet with Erdogan may take place in the near future. If the terms of the visit are agreed upon, a whole list of geopolitical issues may be discussed. 

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

For the Russian Foreign Ministry, the past week has been rich in international summits and other events that require active involvement. First of all, we are talking about the G20 summit, where Russia was represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, as well as the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s reaction to the escalation of military and political escalation, as well as involvement in a number of issues at the level of UN resolutions. 

Below are the main events to watch out for:

1. On Monday, 18 November, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said during a briefing that the editor-in-chief of the People’s Daily, Yuliya Kuznetsova, was killed in a strike by Ukrainian UAVs in Kursk Region on 17 November. During the attack, a vehicle carrying the editorial office’s archive was hit. In addition to the deceased, an employee of the newspaper and a law enforcement officer accompanying them were wounded. Zakharova also sharply criticized international structures, such as UNESCO and the UN, for their ignoring the facts of the murders of Russian journalists and their political engagement. She called the situation with the silencing of such crimes part of the West’s disinformation campaign.

2. During the briefing, Zakharova also commented on Western media reports about the alleged authorization given by the United States, France and the United Kingdom to use ATACMS, SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian territory. She noted that the origin of such statements is still unclear, but they clearly fit into the West’s course of escalation of the conflict. According to Zakharova, Western countries are trying to compensate for the Kiev regime’s defeats during a special military operation, counting on “miracle weapons.” She emphasized that such actions are not capable of changing the course of hostilities. Zakharova recalled Vladimir Putin’s words of October 25, where he emphasized that Ukraine cannot strike with long-range weapons without the direct involvement of NATO specialists and their satellite technologies. It also warned that Kiev’s use of Western missiles to attack Russian territory would be seen as direct involvement of NATO countries in the fighting, which would change the nature of the conflict. Russia’s response in such a case would be, in her words, “adequate and tangible.”

3. On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Rio de Janeiro on the sidelines of the G20 summit. The parties positively assessed the dynamics of political dialog and practical interaction between Russia and China, noting their importance in the context of global instability. Special attention was paid to the implementation of the agreements reached at the highest level, including the outcome of the BRICS summit in Kazan. The Ministers emphasized the need to strengthen coordination of foreign policy actions in international platforms such as the UN, BRICS, SCO and G20. The Ministers also had a detailed exchange of views on the global and regional agenda.

4. The Russian Foreign Ministry also reported that on November 18, the UN Security Council considered a draft resolution on the protection of civilians in Sudan proposed by the United Kingdom. Russia voted against the document, pointing to its hidden purpose of interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign country. The Russian side emphasized that the draft actually ignored the role of the legitimate government of Sudan in ensuring security, humanitarian aid and national sovereignty. The text contained proposals to create an external mechanism to punish violence, which Russia characterized as a manifestation of Western neo-colonial practices. Of particular concern was the mention of the possible deployment of international forces in Sudan, despite the conclusions of the UN Secretary General that there were no conditions for such a step. As a result of the Russian “veto” the resolution was not adopted.

5. On Tuesday, November 19, the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, which was attended by Sergey Lavrov on behalf of the Russian President, came to an end. According to the Russian side, the event resulted in a leadership declaration reflecting the participants’ collective views on key global challenges. On the initiative of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Global Alliance to Fight Hunger and Poverty was launched, which Russia joined together with more than 80 founding countries. The summit discussed reforms of global institutions, promotion of sustainable development and ensuring economic growth. Political issues in the final document are reflected in the wording satisfactory to Russia. Special attention was paid to new formats of cooperation: for the first time representatives of the New Development Bank and the Arab League took part in the summit. The G20 presidency for next year has been handed over to South Africa, another BRICS country.

6. During the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Sergey Lavrov commented on reports about the alleged US authorization for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory. The Russian Foreign Minister emphasized that the information published in the New York Times could be both true and an attempt to “probe the ground”. Nevertheless, he noted that the use of ATACMS missiles, including their launch on the Bryansk region, is impossible without the direct participation of American specialists. Lavrov also pointed to the statement by EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrell that European countries would independently decide whether to provide Ukraine with their long-range weapons. Answering a question about Russia’s reaction, the minister recalled that the updated “Fundamentals of the Nuclear Doctrine of the Russian Federation” had recently been published, which enshrined Russia’s position in the security sphere. He expressed hope that this document would be scrutinized and not interpreted one-sidedly, as is often the case with the UN Charter.

7. On Wednesday, November 20, the UN Security Council considered a draft resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the release of hostages and provision of humanitarian aid to the victims. The document, prepared by non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, was supported by 14 countries, but its adoption was blocked by the United States, using its veto for the sixth time. Washington opposed proposals to stop the fighting, release hostages and unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to the enclave suffering from famine, epidemics and mass destruction. According to data announced at the meeting, the escalation in Gaza has already killed 44,000 people, most of them women and children. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the U.S. actions the main factor preventing the cessation of violence and suffering of civilians, not only in the Gaza Strip, but also in other regions of the world. The Russian side also stated that it intends to continue active efforts in the international arena, including the UN Security Council, in order to achieve an immediate ceasefire and ensure long-term stability and peace in the Arab-Israeli conflict zone on the basis of international law.

8. On Thursday, November 21, the third meeting of the Interdepartmental Commission on Caspian Cooperation was held at the Russian Foreign Ministry under the chairmanship of Sergey Lavrov. The event was attended by representatives of federal authorities, as well as the heads of the Astrakhan region, the Republic of Dagestan and the Republic of Kalmykia. The meeting discussed a wide range of issues related to the realization of Russia’s national interests in the Caspian Sea region. Particular attention was paid to deepening regional cooperation, planning significant events and solving problems related to the shoaling of the Caspian Sea. Active work of the coastal regions in cooperation with the federal authorities on the implementation of specific projects aimed at developing Caspian cooperation was noted.

9. On the same day, the IAEA Board of Governors considered a resolution on the application of safeguards in Iran proposed by Britain, Germany, France and the United States. Russia opposed the document, calling it a step in the wrong direction that does not contribute to resolving nuclear nonproliferation issues and undermines interaction between Iran and the Agency. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the initiators of the resolution were using Iran’s nuclear program to escalate tensions in the Middle East, seeking to divert attention from the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Russia accused Western countries of violating UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and sabotaging the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The resolution was adopted by a vote of 19 out of 35 members of the Governing Council, while the rest abstained or voted against it. The Russian side emphasized that the document, circulated long before the publication of the IAEA reports, undermines the prospects for constructive cooperation between Tehran and the Agency.

10. On Friday, November 22, Brest (Belarus) hosted the annual joint meeting of the Collegiums of the Foreign Ministries of Russia and Belarus, as well as talks between Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Sergey Ryzhenkov. The meeting discussed key issues of bilateral cooperation and further development of integration processes within the Union State. Special attention was paid to foreign policy coordination on international platforms and cooperation with the states of the Global South and East, including interaction within the framework of the SCO and BRICS. The participants discussed sanctions pressure from the West and agreed on measures to counteract these actions and their consequences. The meeting resulted in the approval of the Plan of Inter-Ministerial Consultations for 2025, as well as the signing of a number of documents, including a statement on the Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity.

3. Government of the Russian Federation

The Russian government worked in a regular mode last week. Below are the main events worth paying attention to:

1. On Monday, November 18, under the leadership of Mikhail Mishustin, a meeting was held to discuss the restoration of infrastructure in the self-proclaimed “LNR”, the preservation of cultural heritage sites and the fight against diabetes. The Prime Minister said that 700 million rubles had been allocated for the construction of communal infrastructure in temporarily occupied Luhansk to speed up the restoration. Hundreds of schools, hospitals and residential buildings have already been restored in the region. A pilot program of preferential lending for the restoration of cultural monuments has been launched in eight Russian regions. It is planned to allocate more than 50 billion rubles for this purpose until 2030. Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova reported on the implementation of the federal project to combat diabetes mellitus. Thanks to the provision of medical institutions with modern equipment and the opening of schools for patients, 3 million people have already been examined, and more than 560 thousand people have been trained to live with this disease. Special attention is paid to providing children and pregnant women with glucose monitoring systems. Mishustin emphasized the importance of further work to improve the quality of life of patients and preserve cultural heritage.

2. On Tuesday, November 19, Mikhail Mishustin held a strategic session on the quality of general and vocational education at the Government Coordination Center. The session was held on the Day of Higher School Teacher and on the birthday of Mikhail Lomonosov, which emphasized the symbolism of the event. Mishustin noted that in five years, 1.3 trillion rubles has been allocated for modernization of educational infrastructure across the country within the framework of the national projects “Education” and “Science and Universities”. Thousands of institutions, including kindergartens, schools and universities, have been built and upgraded, and key projects such as “Professionalitet”, “Advanced Engineering Schools” and “Priority-2030” have been launched. One of the key topics was the elimination of the bureaucratic burden on educators and solving the problem of teacher shortage. A comprehensive plan has already been adopted to improve the teaching of math, physics and other science disciplines, as well as teacher training.

3. On Thursday, November 21, Mikhail Mishustin held a meeting of the Government to discuss the readiness of housing and utilities and energy sector for the autumn-winter period, subsidizing the electronics industry and equipping medical facilities in new regions. Construction Minister Irek Faizullin reported on the readiness of 99% of housing and utilities facilities and 99.8% of social and cultural institutions for the heating season. In the new regions of Russia 212 emergency recovery teams have been created for winter work. Special attention was paid to border areas, including the Kursk region, where more than 900 million rubles were allocated for the installation of 37 modular boiler houses. Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev noted that the country’s energy system is ready for winter loads, fuel reserves have been formed, and more than 150 thousand specialists have been engaged to eliminate accidents. Plans for modernization and construction of generating capacities in the Far Eastern and Siberian regions were also discussed. An additional RUB 18.5 billion has been allocated to subsidize soft loans to electronic industry enterprises. This measure is aimed at developing a strategic industry on which the country’s defense capability and technological sovereignty depend. The Government has also allocated more than Br750 million to equip medical institutions in the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. The funds will be used to purchase CT, MRI and X-ray units, which will make it possible to expand access to high-tech medical care for residents of the new regions.

4. On Friday, November 22, Moscow hosted the ninth meeting of the Russia-OPEC Energy Dialogue co-chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais. Novak emphasized Russia’s role as a reliable supplier in the global oil market and the importance of OPEC+ flexibility and responsiveness in responding to changes in market conditions. According to him, the OPEC+ agreement mechanism remains the most effective tool for maximizing the efficiency of oil production and ensuring the income of the states. Haitham Al-Ghais noted the importance of the Energy Dialogue as a platform for sharing experience and ensuring market stability, benefiting both producers and consumers. Attention was paid to the short- and long-term prospects for the energy market, including energy security, investment and stability. The meeting also discussed the outcome of the COP29 climate conference in Baku and the role of OPEC and Russia in stabilizing the global energy market. The participants highly appreciated the results of the technical meetings held earlier and agreed to continue cooperation at the research level. The next meeting in the format of the Russia-OPEC Energy Dialogue will be held in 2025 in Vienna.

RESULTS OF THE WEEK: ANALYTICAL REVIEW BY ASCOLTA

The past week in the Russian Federation was characterized by attempts to raise the stakes in the political and military confrontation with the West. Vladimir Putin’s video message regarding the possible results of the use of weapons against facilities on the territory of NATO countries, as well as a demonstrative strike by a supposedly state-of-the-art Kedr missile (Project Oreshnik) on the territory of the Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro, is yet another signal to the West regarding a possible new wave of escalation. The fact that Putin recorded his video message in the same office from which he announced the start of the so-called “NWO” in February 2022 should have left no one in doubt that Russia is capable of launching hostilities in Europe as well.

Meanwhile, Putin has left time for reflection. Apparently, the issue of threats escalating into actual hostilities will be discussed during Putin’s conversation with his CSTO colleagues next week, and there will be consultations with at least two of Russia’s partners, Iran and China. 

In our opinion, Russia is now going through a very difficult period of choice. On the one hand, it is constantly being provoked to take more active steps towards NATO states (according to the Western strategists, this could draw Russia into a war and at the same time deprive it of China’s support). On the other hand, Russia realizes that it needs to bide its time (less than 2 months), after which it can sit down at the negotiating table with the new US administration. If hostilities start now, it will be too late to talk to Trump about anything.

In part, Russia managed to strengthen its position at the G20 summit, where participants adopted a much softer resolution on Ukraine than last year. This has already been credited to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Russia also continues to quietly and calmly promote its interests in European states, actively influencing public opinion (as evidenced, for example, by the election results in Romania). 

Most likely, in the near future we will witness a new wave of escalation in relations between Russia and the West. Especially since Ukraine, which acts as a trigger for these relations, has not given up the use of longer-range missiles against objects located on Russian territory.