Tunisia’s presidential election: a funeral march for the Arab Spring

The optimism of the Arab Spring

For a long time, Tunisia was, so to speak, a kind of showcase of the Arab Spring. It became a pioneer, a country where the unprecedented happened: a bloodless change of power, but not from father to son, as the Assads did and Gaddafi and Mubaraki planned to do, but as a result of popular discontent and subsequent free elections.

On 17 December 2010, a young (only 26 years old) vegetable vendor named Mohammed Bouazizi entered the main town square in the town of Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia. He was carrying a small jerry can of petrol. Quickly opening it, Mohammed shouted, addressing the residence of the head of the province, “How am I supposed to make a living now?”. It was his protest against a state in which the smallest official wished to show off his power to those around him or counted on receiving a bribe. Although Tunisia did not require a licence for street trading, Bouazizi was constantly under pressure from the police, who extorted bribes to turn a blind eye to “illegal trade”. 

Moham-med tolerated the charges until on the morning of 17 December he was approached by a municipality employee. She declared that he could not trade here, confiscated the scales and knocked over the counter in farewell. Bouazizi went to the provincial head’s residence to seek justice. But there he refused to be received and listened to. The young merchant, in utter despair, said: “Then I will have to kill myself” and left. No one paid any attention to these words.

 As a result of the self-immolation, Bouazizi suffered severe burns and, although doctors tried to save him, died the following January. With this sad event began the revolution in Tunisia, followed by protests and revolutions in 19 other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Thus began the Arab Spring.

Bouazizi’s death unleashed a huge wave of public discontent in Tunisia. Many young Tunisians tried on the role of Mohammed and realised that they themselves might find themselves in his shoes. The authorities’ attempt to “hush up the case” caused gigantic indignation. It was announced that the head of the province would be punished, but this did not happen. The municipal official was not touched either. And the investigation of the case quickly died down. In addition, the fact that a man was insulted by a woman, albeit a woman in authority, was particularly outrageous in the patriarchal Arab society. 

Although Arab countries are considered undemocratic, there are still some media outlets in opposition to, or at least critical of, the government. The news of the suicide attempt was leaked to the press. At the same time, rumours circulated among the people, exaggerating what had happened and portraying the position of the authorities as completely unworthy. Social networks, which were just beginning to become popular, played a huge role in this process. Information was disseminated via Facebook and Twitter. It was through social networks that activists soon began to coordinate public protests. 

As early as 24 December, in the vicinity of Sidi Bouzid, youths began to gather in the streets of the city, shouting anti-government slogans. The police attempted to disperse the crowd but encountered serious resistance, being attacked with stones and Molotov cocktails. The police were driven to the local mosque and blocked there. At the same time, protesters burnt down the office of the ruling party, the city railway station was damaged by fire, and several cars were destroyed. One of the demonstrators was shot dead by the police, which provoked even more fury from the crowd.

Three days later, Tunisian trade unions organised a demonstration in solidarity with the citizens of Sidi Bouziz in the capital. It was broken up by the police. The disaffected were frightened, but the protests continued in other provincial cities of Tunisia. After Mohammed Bouazizi died in hospital, clashes with the authorities became permanent. Rebels burned police stations and government offices across the country, and in the capital, protesters began mass pogroms of anything they thought had anything to do with the authorities. 

A curfew was imposed and police opened fire on groups of protesting youth. Parliament called for the harshest measures to be taken against the rebels. The next day, more than a hundred thousand people took to the streets of the capital, and Tunisian President Ben Ali fled the country. Power passed to the military and an interim government headed by former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannoushi. The presidential palace, as well as many other government buildings, was seized and looted by protesters. The police were paralysed and completely out of order. The most important facilities were secured by regular army units. 

Opposition leaders began to return to Tunisia, feeling that the time had come to take part in the struggle for power. They received support from the West, where left-liberal circles were suspicious of President Ben Ali’s regime as archaic. Opposition parties refused to recognise the government as long as it contained members of the ruling Democratic Constitutional Union party of fugitive President Ben Ali. Radicals demanded its immediate ban. Under public pressure, ministers began to leave the ruling party (which still held the majority of seats in Tunisia’s parliament).

As a result, the provisional government became increasingly dependent on the opinion of the “street”. At the end of January, all ministers suspected of being “insufficiently revolutionary” were removed from the government, and a month later the first head of the provisional government, Ghannushi, resigned, the last person to link the new political regime with the old order. 

Then, in October 2011, Tunisia held parliamentary elections in which supporters of laicité – that is, secularism – squared off against Islamists from the Renaissance Party (Al-Nahda), whose leader, Rachid Al-Ghannoushi, had returned from years of exile in London. “Al-Nahda won 41 per cent of the vote and secured 90 seats in the 217-seat Tunisian parliament.

Neither the elections nor the subsequent confrontation between secularists and Islamists in 2013 led to bloodshed and waves of violence like those that swept Yemen, Libya and Syria. Far from seizing power, the military played a huge role in the peaceful course of the second “Jasmine Revolution” (2010-2011). Back then, the Chief of General Staff refused to participate in the suppression of the protest movement, despite orders from President Ben Ali. And the Islamist Al-Nahda party, which, as we have already noted, won a majority of votes in the first parliamentary elections, then made concessions to other parties, and later abandoned political Islam altogether and announced its new credo – secular politics with religious roots.

Moreover, Al-Nahda formed a coalition with secular parties to draft a new constitution. However, in 2013, after mass protests and the start of the national dialogue, Al-Nahda lost power in the country. As a result of the 2014 elections, the secular political party Nidaa Tunisia (Call of Tunisia) came to power and won 86 seats in the elections to the local Assembly of People’s Representatives.

In January 2014, Tunisia adopted a new constitution, which many experts considered the most democratic in the Arab world. It guaranteed equal rights for men and women, freedom of the media and multiparty politics, and established a mixed parliamentary-presidential system. In December 2014, the second round of the first free presidential elections was held, which was won by 88-year-old Beji Kaidou El Sebsi, founder of the secular Nidaa Tunisia party. 

It soon became clear that the Tunisian experiment was unique; such a peaceful scenario has never been repeated. Neither in Egypt, where Islamists won the elections and Field Marshal al-Sisi, supported by millions of Egyptians at the time, seized power a year later. Not in Libya, where after a bloody war Gaddafi was killed and the state split into warring regions. Nor in Syria, where, with the help of Iran, Russia and China, Bashar al-Assad still clings to power. Yemen is mired in civil war, and in Bahrain protests were suppressed with the help of Saudi military intervention. 

To varying degrees, the protests affected Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Algeria, Morocco and Sudan. Somewhere the discontent of the population was flooded with money, somewhere the authorities made concessions or the opposition did not have enough strength. But the lull proved to be short-lived. In 2019, street protests led to the resignation of two presidents (in Algeria and Sudan) and two prime ministers (in Lebanon and Iraq). Although there was no radical change of state, as was the case in 2011, in any of the countries. 

In Algeria and Sudan, events followed a similar pattern: the military first protected protesters from the police and then took control of the situation in the country, fearing a repeat of the 2011 events in Libya and Syria. As a result, in each country, instead of a “victory of the revolution,” there was actually a military coup d’état. But the street also learnt the lessons of 2011 by not stopping the protests after the resignation of top officials. In Iraq and Lebanon, protest has turned into a permanent process. And while in Iraq the elites managed, at least after several attempts, to form an interim government to prepare the country for the elections scheduled for next year, in Lebanon the elites proved to be incapable and incapable.

In 2016, the Economist declared Tunisia the Middle East’s only democracy. However, despite this recognition, the economic situation continued to be difficult, reforms stalled, and with the constant terrorist threat from the Islamic State, freedom of expression was restricted. But the most important thing that predetermined the future decline of the Arab Spring was that there was no change of elites. There was simply a redistribution in the elite groups. The most toxic ones were removed, and then there was a redistribution of flows and political influence. The opposition that came to power became mired in squabbles among themselves, unable to form a stable government. In the 13 years since the Arab Spring, 12 governments have changed in Tunisia.

In July 2019, Tunisian President Beji Caid El Sebsi passed away at the 92nd year of his life and early presidential elections were scheduled for the month of November. Their outcome came as a big surprise to many. The winner turned out to be the unexpectedly appearing on the political arena law professor Kais Said. A completely independent candidate without a party, a political outsider who was generally incomprehensible to many. Who he was, who he was associated with, who promoted him. During the election campaign, he was nicknamed “robocop” for his resemblance to a famous film character and his mechanical monotonous manner of speech. His main rival, businessman and media tycoon Nabil Karoui, was dubbed the “pasta maker” by journalists for his habit of handing out bags of food at meetings with voters. 

Said was very unusual for Tunisian society. His programme was as simple and clear as possible: let’s restore justice, let’s put everyone in jail, let’s destroy corruption, let’s put the oligarchs in jail, and so on. In general, the main components of his success were absolutely anti-elitist rhetoric, directed against the establishment and, of course, his new face in politics. As a result, Qais Said won the election with 18 per cent of the vote in the first round and 72 per cent in the second round.

Backsliding to authoritarianism

When he came to power, Qais Said tried to change the system to suit himself, legally at first. At first, he wanted to build a vertical power structure, but it did not work well. He surrounded himself with his own people and already in 2020 his first conflict with the parliament started. The president constantly resented the fact that the Constitution limits his powers to foreign policy and command of the Armed Forces. By law, disputes between MPs and the president were to be resolved by the Constitutional Court. However, due to disagreements over the appointment of judges, this body was never established. 

The president’s feud with parliament has prevented the executive from addressing Tunisia’s problems, including rising inflation, high unemployment, a national debt that has risen to 100 per cent of GDP, and the spread of coronavirus infections. The scapegoat for all the country’s problems has been Tunisia’s most influential political force, the moderate Islamist Al-Nahda party. Public opinion against it provided support for Cairo Said.

“Over the past few months, Al-Nahd and its leader, Rachid Al-Ghanoushi, have served as a target at which condemnations have flown from the president and from the rest of us. Many Tunisian politicians and commentators have accused Al-Nahda of all sorts of sins without providing any corroboration. Who could have imagined that in Tunisia, the most secular Arab country, an Islamist party could win a majority of seats in transparent and fair elections? Does Al-Nahda pose a serious long-term threat to Tunisia’s adored secularism? Maybe it does, but it is now a legitimate political force. Blaming Al-Nahda for a host of ills is a delusion that will have unpleasant consequences,” the Tunisian Middle East Monitor wrote at the time.

And then Qais Said showed that not only the bloodless experience of the Arab Spring can be unique. The country’s transition from democracy to authoritarianism was also unique in its own way.

In July 2021, Qais Said surprised everyone both inside and outside his country. He closed the democratically elected national parliament for 30 days, sacked Prime Minister Hichem Mecici, cancelled immunity for deputies and banned them from leaving the state. According to the Tunisian president, “Art. 80 of the constitution gives the head of state the right to impose such measures if he sees ‘an imminent danger threatening national institutions or the security or independence of the country’.” Qais Said claimed to be saving a Tunisia weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic and poor governance from corruption and plots fuelling civil war. 

However, most experts at the time called his actions an arbitrary coup d’état, believing that the leader had arrogated emergency powers illegally – the 80th article of the Tunisian Constitution, on which he relied, stipulates that the president must take power in coordination with the prime minister and the speaker of parliament, not alone. Nevertheless, day after day, the Tunisian president has applied more and more measures that raise his presidential powers to the level of Ben Ali, who was overthrown in the “Jasmine Revolution” in 2011.

Qais Said sacked the ministers of defence and justice, banned citizens from gathering in groups of more than three in public places and imposed a curfew from 7pm to 6am. Key government facilities were surrounded by soldiers preventing parliament speaker Rachid al-Ghannoushi – one of the most prominent Islamist politicians not only in Tunisia but across the Arab world – from entering the parliament building. Next, Qais Said sacked the chief prosecutor, and Tunisia’s judiciary announced it was launching investigations into the three main parliamentary parties: “Al-Nahda, Heart of Tunisia and Aish-Tounsi, who accused the president of a coup d’état. 

They were suspected of illegal “foreign funding and acceptance of funds of unknown origin” in 2019. The prosecution of parliamentary parties was followed by pressure on their financial patrons. The news that the president had demanded that 450 members of the business elite pay back $4.8bn obtained through tax evasion and fraud was thunderous in Tunisia. “The 450 figures looted this country, according to a report by the National Commission for Finding Bribery and Corruption. All these people are documented and identified. 

The amount requested to be returned to the state, according to this report, is 13.5 billion dinars ($4.8 billion),” Qais Said announced in a video message and suggested that those involved either go to jail or donate the money to build hospitals, schools and roads in Tunisia’s underdeveloped regions. The Tunisian street was generally supportive of the president’s decisions, which seemed to be an instant response to the unrest that had risen. According to local media, tens of thousands of people turned out to support the president in defiance of the curfew, while the number of parliamentary supporters who rallied was many times smaller. 

In September 2021, not only was the curfew lifted, but a new government was formed headed by the first woman in Tunisia’s history, Najle Boudin Romdan. This was another move by Said, seemingly showing his democratic credentials. But, as it turned out later, it was only for “diversion” and to soften the tense situation. At the same time, the confrontation between the parliament and the president continued. A group of deputies of the suspended Tunisian parliament called on the government not to fulfil the orders of the country’s President Cais Said. Issam Chebbi, secretary general of the Republican Party of Tunisia, said that “it is necessary to refuse to fulfil the orders of Cais Said and return the country to the constitutional path of development.” For his part, Democratic Bloc leader Khalil al-Zawiya said that “the Tunisian president intends to rule the country alone without the involvement of other political forces.” He accused Kais Said of involving foreign structures in the internal political affairs of the country. The situation continued to escalate. 

In March 2022, Qais Said announced the dissolution of Parliament. The President explained that his move was in response to MPs who had met via video link to approve a bill cancelling the exceptional measures and decrees of the Head of State. In a meeting with Prime Minister Najla Boudin Romdan at the Palace in Carthage, Said accused the ANP MPs of seeking to “divide the country and thus plot against the internal security of the state” and said parliamentary elections were postponed indefinitely.

Seeking to maximise his power, in July 2022 Said held a referendum on a new draft constitution that would give the head of state greater powers: he would be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, as well as head of the executive branch, and would be able to appoint and remove the prime minister at his discretion, and would have a preferential right of legislative initiative. 

Shortly before the referendum, Tunisia’s official newspaper published the text of the new constitution as drafted by the president, which, according to Sadok Belaid, head of the advisory committee for drafting the document, had “serious discrepancies” with the draft he had proposed earlier. Belaid pointed to the presence of “unacceptable chapters” in the text that allowed the country’s president to establish a “dictatorial regime.” A number of political and public figures said that Tunisian President Cais Said had removed from the constitution proposed by Sadok Belaid all provisions limiting the powers of the head of state and weakening the role of parliament and the judiciary. In their view, “this negates the democratic gains” won by Tunisians during the 2011 revolution. 

The Tunisian president rejected the allegations and said his version of the constitution did not violate human rights and freedoms. “The Basic Law is first and foremost a reflection of the spirit of the nation, it does not in any way infringe on the rights and freedoms of citizens,” he said. Kais Said called the referendum on the constitution “an opportunity to save the country” and urged Tunisians to approve his proposed version of the new basic law. The adoption of Tunisia’s new constitution was supported by 94 per cent of the referendum participants. In an interview with the New York Times, to all accusations of usurping power, he quoted former French president Charles de Gaulle, saying: “What makes you think that at the age of 67 I would start a career as a dictator?”.

Parliamentary elections were held on 17 December 2022, which were boycotted by the opposition Front for National Salvation alliance, which included the Islamist Al-Nahda party, the social-democratic Heart of Tunisia party and a number of other political forces that held a total of 111 seats in the lower house of parliament out of 217 at the time of its dissolution by President Qais Said. According to opponents of the head of state, an election in which the leading opposition parties do not participate will lead to a political system in which power will be concentrated in Said’s hands. 

Meanwhile, the President himself made a short statement to the press after visiting the polling station. “This is a historic opportunity to restore your legal rights,” he said, addressing the nation and talking about the significance of the elections. – We have broken with those who have ruined the country.” Despite the expected victory of the pro-presidential forces, the low turnout of 11.2 per cent gave the opposition an excuse to claim that the majority of the population did not support Qais Said. The president himself did not see any problem with the low turnout in the early Assam-Blaya elections for people’s representatives, saying that a turnout of 9 per cent or 12 per cent was better than the 99 per cent announced in previous elections, which were welcomed by foreign capitals who knew they had been rigged.

The consolidation of Said’s regime of personal power was accompanied by strong coercive pressure on the president’s critics. For example, the former chairman of the Assembly of People’s Representatives (lower house of parliament), dissolved by the president in 2022, 81-year-old Rashid Ghannoushi, was sentenced to one year in prison. He was accused of “provocative statements” during a meeting of opposition forces on the anniversary of the founding of the National Salvation Front (FNS, an alliance of parties and movements). He said at the time that “Tunisia faces civil war if political Islam is eliminated in the country”. 

Ghannushi was also charged with “conspiracy against state security, actions aimed at changing the current regime, as well as incitement to infighting among the citizens of the country”. Ten months later, 82-year-old Rashid Ghannushi was given a new sentence of three years’ imprisonment for receiving external funding. Rafiq Ab-Dessalem, Ghannushi’s son-in-law, received the same sentence. 

Time bomb

Against a backdrop of increasing repression, Said’s progression towards authoritarianism coincided with the decline of Tunisia’s economy. Inflation has reached double digits, periodic shortages of subsidised goods and power and water cuts have become the norm.  The authorities have struggled to meet their debt servicing needs, which are set to reach a record 41 per cent of public spending this year. Negotiations over a $1.9bn bailout package from the IMF have stalled, alarming bondholders. Some experts predict the economic situation could deteriorate to the extent of Lebanon’s economic crisis. But financial aid from Saudi Arabia, unexpectedly high olive oil revenues and tourism earnings are helping the economy stay afloat. However, the unemployment rate, according to the World Bank, stood at 16 per cent and has forced many young people to emigrate. 

The country has become a key transit point for migrants travelling to Europe. A significant number of migrants who reached the territory of Italy came from Tunisia. That’s why Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni became a new friend of the Tunisian president, sharing with the Tunisian leader the idea of fighting illegal migration, one of the problems that brought her to power in 2022. Last year, the countries signed an agreement to curb attempts to cross the border illegally. It has resulted in a 60 per cent reduction in illegal migrant arrivals by sea, totalling just over 50,000 people year-on-year, according to the Italian Interior Ministry.  

During her fourth visit to Tunisia in April 2024 and meeting with President Kais Saib, the Italian Prime Minister signed three documents at the Palace of Carthage as part of Italy’s “Mattei Plan” for cooperation with African countries, which envisages €5.5 billion in loans and other programmes. In particular, an agreement was signed on direct support for the Tunisian state budget, with 50 million euros to support energy efficiency and renewable energy; a credit line of 55 million euros for small and medium-sized Tunisian businesses; and a memorandum of understanding between the Italian Ministry of Universities and Research and the relevant Tunisian ministry, which will provide a framework for co-operation in this field between the two countries. 

Meloni is also trying to export this partnership to a broader format with the EU. It was Italy that was the main lobbyist for the July 2023 Memorandum of Understanding signed between Tunisia and the EU on a strategic and comprehensive partnership, which envisages the two sides working together on the issue of countering illegal migration. For the sake of the deal, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen promised Tunisia a “strengthened partnership” and financial assistance of more than a billion euros. 

The EU could provide 150 million euros of this amount immediately and the remaining 900 million euros later as long-term support. The EU has already concluded similar agreements with several other African countries. Although Tunisia and the EU have signed a broad agreement, it has not yet been implemented and has been heavily criticised within the EU. It has come to the point where Tunisia has returned the 60 million euros that Brussels allocated to it. Kais Said rejected the financial offer, saying it was “humiliating” and contrary to the terms of the agreement. These harsh remarks caused outrage in Brussels, where the memorandum was presented as a model for future agreements with neighbouring countries to curb migration flows. 

The return of the money is yet another deterioration of the already fragile EU-Tunisia relationship, which the association is desperately trying to salvage for the sake of its migration policy. And although there has been some progress in implementing the Memorandum, Said’s unpredictability and his negative reaction to any EU criticism of the presidential elections could derail or delay the agreement. There is little to stop Said, for example, from resuming sending migrants rushing to Europe via the Mediterranean and declaring that Europe cannot use Tunisia as its dependency. It is not for nothing that the cautious Meloni rejects all accusations of Said’s authoritarianism.

And the trend of Tunisia’s rapprochement with China, Russia and Iran makes Brussels even more accommodating and “turning a blind eye” to all the authoritarian “pranks” of Kais Said and undemocratic elections. However, despite the current decline in the flow of illegal migrants to Europe from Tunisia, the vast majority of the country’s young generation is increasingly facing diminishing opportunities for life in the country. Nihilism prevails among the youth. They tried revolution but it didn’t work out, so they are mostly keen to leave. In this respect, Tunisia’s new autocracy could prove to be a real time bomb for the EU.

Said’s triumph or farewell to democracy

Having limited threats on the external circuit, Qais Said went to the presidential elections. He announced his intention to run again as early as 19 July: “If I had a choice, I would not run. But when it comes to the national debt, there is no room for hesitation. I am running for the presidential election to continue the struggle for national liberation.” He was the first among the candidates to submit his documents to the Independent Supreme Electoral Authority (ISIE). And “unexpectedly” on the same day, five potential presidential candidates received prison sentences and could not participate in the presidential election under current law. A court in the capital handed down sentences to prominent Tunisian politician Abdellatif Mekki, activist Nizar Chaari, judge Mourad Massoudi and another potential presidential candidate, Adel Dou. They were all sentenced to eight months in prison on charges of vote-buying. 

Another court sentenced Abir Moussi, a lawyer and fierce opposition activist, to two years’ imprisonment. She was accused of insulting the electoral commission. Earlier, a court sentenced Lotfi Mraikhi, another potential presidential candidate and fierce critic of Mr Said, to eight months in prison on charges of vote-buying. The court also banned him from running in the presidential election. As The Guardian notes, citing Bassam Khawaja, deputy Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch, “Since the start of the electoral process on 14 July, authorities have prosecuted, convicted or detained at least nine potential candidates.” 

The originally long list of 17 candidates has been reduced to three. In addition to Qais Said, it included Zouheir Maghzaoui, a mathematician, secretary general of the Harakat al-Shaab party, elected to parliament in 2014 and 2019. A supporter of Nasserism, in opposition to Islamists. In 2022, supported Qais Said’s initiative to dissolve parliament and referendum on a constitution that strengthened presidential power. Election programme emphasised agricultural and industrial development, promises to increase minimum wage to 420 dinars or $137.

And also Ayachi Zammel, a chemist and businessman who heads the Ayachi Group, a food and beverage company. In 2019, he was elected to the Assembly of People’s Representatives from the Tahia Tunisia party, but left after one year. In 2020-2021, he chaired the health and social affairs committee. In June 2022, founded the Azimoun party, opposed dissolution of parliament and referendum. Promised economic growth of at least 4.2 per cent per year, self-sufficiency in wheat and vegetable oils at 70 per cent in five years, a reduction in unemployment below 10 per cent and an increase in annual income per person to $6,000. 

However, he conducted his election campaign while in prison. On 1 October, Zammel was sentenced to 12 years in prison on charges of fraudulent sponsorship. Convicts cannot run for the state’s highest office, but his lawyer said the defence will use all legal means, including international justice, to defend the candidate’s rights. And Zammel’s name did appear on the ballot papers.

According to Bassam Khawaja: “Holding elections under such repressive conditions makes a mockery of the right of Tunisians to participate in free and fair elections. There was no electoral campaign alternative to Said’s. There were no rallies before polling day, no public debates, and almost all campaign posters on the streets called for a vote for Said. As Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specialising in the Middle East, noted in a BBC commentary, “Said has brought the political and legal situation to the point where he has no competitors – he is the only viable candidate.” 

The International Crisis Group think tank stated on the eve of the election that “…the president’s nationalist discourse and economic difficulties have corroded any enthusiasm ordinary citizens may have had for the elections”. On the eve of polling day, hundreds of people protested in the capital, marching along the heavily policed Habib Bourguiba Avenue. Some demonstrators carried placards condemning Said and calling him a “pharaoh who manipulates the law”. For his part, Qais Said called for a “massive turnout for the vote” and the start of what he called an era of “reconstruction.” 

He referred to a “long war against conspiratorial forces linked to foreign circles,” accusing them of “infiltrating many government services and disrupting hundreds of projects” during his tenure. And it must be said that Saeed’s policies resonate with his supporters. For example, fruit seller Salem Lakhmar told Reuters, “Said is the first president who fought corrupt politicians and powerful businessmen, so we will elect him and renew our support.”

The actual result of the elections turned out to be quite predictable. According to preliminary data, Kais Said won 90.7 per cent of the votes and was re-elected for a second term, having won the first round of the presidential election. Ayashi Zammel, a former MP from the left-wing Azimoun party sentenced to 12 years in prison, got 7.4 per cent, while Zouheir Maghzaoui, a former popular favourite from the social-democratic Harakyat al-Shaab party, got 1.9 per cent. Turnout in Tunisia’s presidential election was 27.7 per cent. In comparison, the previous 2019 presidential election had a first-round turnout of 48.98 per cent.

Now that presidential elections are history, many fear that Said’s new mandate will only exacerbate the country’s socio-economic problems, as well as accelerate the regime’s authoritarian drift and end Tunisia’s experiment with democracy.