Russia for the week (02.09-08.09)

1. Vladimir Putin’s visit to the Republic of Tyva

On Monday, 2 September, Vladimir Putin paid his first working visit to Kyzyl, the capital of the Republic of Tyva, for the first time in ten years. During the visit, the Russian president held several meetings with the leadership of the Republic and also took part in a number of events.

Open lesson ‘Talking about Important Things’

During his visit to Kyzyl, Putin visited one of the new schools, where he held a traditional open lesson ‘Talking about the Important’ dedicated to the beginning of the new school year. During his dialogue with pupils, the Russian president also raised a number of political issues.

Key talking points:

• «Of course, I congratulate all schoolchildren, students, teachers, parents of Russia on the beginning of the new school year. This is always a big event not only for pupils and students. It is always a big event for all members of the family, for parents, first of all, of course, for grandparents, for those who devote their lives to education issues».

• «I must say that even today those traditions that were established by our predecessors, our ancestors, grandfathers and grandmothers, are alive and being strengthened. I mean, among other things, that about 10,000 residents of the Republic of Tyva take the most active part in the [so-called] ‘SWO’. They, risking themselves, their lives, their health, are defending each of you and the country as a whole».

• «I would like to remind you that the beginning of the [so-called] “SWO” was connected with the endless provocations by our enemy and the [so-called] “coup d’état” in Ukraine, after which they began to suppress everything that was more or less positive towards our country. They started to create bases on this territory, on the territory of Ukraine, they started to suppress everything that was connected with the Russian language, our culture, historical memory. They began to create an anti-Russian enclave, an anti-Russia out of Ukraine. They started to actually build foreign military bases there and so on. They started suppressing, I repeat, people who wanted normal relations with our country».

• «We are protecting both those people who live in Donbass and our common future, the future of Russia, because we can not afford to have hostile structures created under our side, which are hatching aggressive plans against our country and are constantly trying to destabilise the Russian Federation».

• «Regarding the peace talks. I have always said that we want to solve all disputes by peaceful means. You are still young people, schoolchildren, but nevertheless you read, you know everything, because everything began, the hot phase began when our enemy threw out all the agreements related to the possibility of a peaceful settlement in Donbas. They announced that they would not fulfil the so-called Minsk agreements, when we had agreed then on how we should build relations with Ukraine and within Ukraine with those people who do not lose their ties with our country, with Russia. No, they threw away all these agreements and began preparations for military operations, which they have already conducted repeatedly on the territory of Donbas. In essence, what have we started to do? To protect people, our people who live on this territory. Nevertheless, we have always been in favour of a peaceful settlement».

• «What has this led to? If the fighting stops, the Ukrainian authorities will have to cancel martial law. And after the cancellation of martial law, presidential elections should be held immediately. And the current authorities are clearly not ready for this, because they have little chance of being re-elected. That is why they are not interested in the cessation of hostilities, that is why they made this provocation in Kursk region, and before that they tried to make the same provocation in Belgorod region, where your friend lives. I think it’s primarily connected with that».

• «Now we have a growing interest in the Chinese language. Why? Because there are a lot of contacts. Business is developing accordingly, there are a lot of partners between Russia and China. They appear naturally. We have a turnover of over 200 billion dollars with China, already 230 billion, according to various estimates. And the volume is increasing. And what does this mean? It doesn’t just mean that goods are transported from one country to another or our joint scientific teams are created and so on».

• «We don’t have hostile languages, we don’t even have hostile countries. We have hostile elites in some countries who have been fighting Russia for centuries, not just now, in order to weaken the country. Because they think it’s too big. They are ‘threatened’ by a country as big as Russia. They are trying to slow down our development, to ‘slow down’ a little bit, or maybe even ‘a lot’. Some of them publicly – you understand, I’m not inventing anything, it’s written in their books and articles – are thinking about dividing Russia into separate parts».

Meeting on socio-economic development of the Republic of Tyva

Also, after the open lesson, Vladimir Putin held an online meeting in Kyzyl on the socio-economic development of the Republic of Tyva. Following the meeting, Putin also held a separate working meeting with Vladislav Khovalyg, head of the Republic of Tyva.

Key points:

• Putin: ‘I will remind you once again that Tuva was the first state, then an independent state, which as an ally of the Soviet Union joined our joint struggle against Nazism and declared war on Nazi Germany and then on militaristic Japan.’

• Putin: ‘I note that Tuva has a rich mineral resource base. There are large reserves of lead, coal, non-ferrous and rare metals, including one of Russia’s largest deposits of lithium. It is known to be in demand for the production of batteries, electronics, and other components for the nuclear, space, and aviation industries, in short, for the industries of the future.

• Vladislav Khovalyg (Head of the Republic of Tuva): ‘80 years is a very small historical period. A lot has been done in Tuva. However, due to various reasons, we have not yet managed to overcome a number of infrastructural limitations. The size of the population’s income is also affected by the peculiarities of the demographic situation, which is twice as high as the Russian average birth rate, and the high proportion of families with many children’.

• Khovalyg: ‘Thanks to the programme of preferential mortgages at two per cent, which you supported, there has been a sharp increase in housing construction. But the most important thing is that people have got hope that they will be able to live in modern flats with improved layout in their small homeland. The quality of life and mood immediately improve. This is an important motivation for us to work even harder.

• Khovalyg: ‘One of the promising projects is the development of the Tastyg lithium deposit. The developer is Elbrusmetall-Lithium, which is part of Rostec. 

• Khovalyg: ‘Tuva is one of the six highly subsidised regions. Unfortunately, the growth rate of own revenues and subsidies lags behind the growth rate of social obligations, including the increase in the wage fund for public sector employees. In this regard, we are forced to allocate all additional sources to pay salaries and to carry out a kind of prioritisation among priority expenditures’.

At the end of the working meetings Vladimir Putin visited the Kyzyl Presidential Cadet School, as well as the Central Tuvan Buddhist Monastery. After that, the Russian president headed to Mongolia for a state visit.

Results/Predictions:

The visit is absolutely working, with no serious and far-reaching consequences. It is a technical stop on the way to Mongolia, which was given the status of a presidential visit to the region. Especially since 11 October is the 80th anniversary of Tuva’s joining the Russian Federation. 

But the important point was that the delegation did not include the Secretary of the National Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s ‘chief Tuvan’ and a native of Tyva. This indirectly confirms the information that Shoigu’s resignation may take place in the near future. 

2. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Mongolia

On Monday, 2 September, Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia on an official visit. The reason for the visit was the invitation of Mongolian President Uhnagiin Khurelsukh to take part in the celebrations marking the 85th anniversary of the joint victory of the Soviet and Mongolian armed forces over the Japanese militarists on the Khalkhin-Gol River. 

Also during the visit, the Russian president held a number of bilateral talks and took part in some events. At the same time, the main topic discussed during the talks with the Mongolian president was the continuation of construction of the second branch of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. 

It is noteworthy that for the world media, this visit was primarily interesting because Mongolia, which ratified the Rome Statute, legally should have detained Vladimir Putin upon his arrival at the airport and handed him over to the investigators of the International Criminal Court. However, this, for obvious reasons, did not happen. 

Already on 3 September, before the start of the talks, a ceremony of an official meeting between Vladimir Putin and Mongolian President Uhnagiin Khurelsukh took place on Sukhbaatar Square in Ulaanbaatar, during which the two heads of state introduced the members of their delegations. The two leaders then held talks in extended and narrow formats.

Speeches of the Presidents of Russia and Mongolia at the talks in the expanded format

• Khurelsukh: ‘I would like to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation from the Mongolian side for your official visit to our country in the year when we are celebrating, marking the 85th anniversary of the joint victory in the battle on the Khalkhin-Gol River.’

• Hurelsukh: ‘It is also gratifying to note that our relations – between our countries and peoples – are traditionally friendly, and that our neighbouring countries over time continue to strengthen these friendly relations and cooperation, to supplement [them] with new content. Now, at present, our relations and co-operation have reached the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership.’

• Hurelsukh: ‘Your present visit should give an additional impetus to the development of our trade and economic relations in order to fill them with economic content primarily in such areas as the fuel and energy complex, road and transport logistics, environmental protection, as well as in culture, education, healthcare and other sectors of humanitarian cooperation.’

• Putin: ‘In 1939, Soviet and Mongolian soldiers gave a decisive response to Japanese aggressors, defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Mongolia. The bonds of military brotherhood that united the peoples of our countries are still a reliable basis for friendship, cooperation and good-neighbourliness. I am confident that this legacy should be passed on to future generations.

• Putin: ‘Relations with Mongolia are among the priorities of our foreign policy in Asia and have been brought to a high level of comprehensive strategic partnership. A steady dialogue is being maintained through the leadership of governments, parliaments, public organizations, and in the field of security. A programme of action to develop interregional and cross-border cooperation is being implemented. As for trade and economic ties, they are developing successfully: in January-July this year trade turnover grew by 21 per cent.’

• Putin: ‘We traditionally pay great attention to humanitarian ties, including educational ones. A large number of Mongolian students study in Russia. Another 620 places are envisaged for the 2024-2025 academic year. And we appreciate the interest of Mongolian youth in learning the Russian language’.

• Putin: ‘I am confident that during today’s visit we will be able to thoroughly consider key issues of cooperation between our countries in contact with our Mongolian colleagues and friends in order to further deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Mongolia’.

Vladimir Putin and Uhnagiin Khurelsukh’s statements to the media

• Khurelsukh: ‘I am glad to note that the traditional friendly relations and cooperation between the peoples of our two countries, who are eternal neighbours, have been strengthened over time, filled with new content and have now reached the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership.’

• Hurelsukh: ‘Your current visit to Mongolia, honourable Vladimir Vladimirovich, is important for enriching the friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation between our two countries with concrete economic content, especially for further development of cooperation in the fields of fuel, energy, transport, environment, culture, education, health, as well as in the humanitarian sphere.’

• Hurelsukh: ‘Following the results of our negotiations, the parties signed an agreement between the Government of Mongolia and the Government of the Russian Federation on co-operation in the field of oil and oil products supply and an agreement on the development of a basic project for the reconstruction of the thermal power plant CHP-3 in Ulaanbaatar.’

• Hurelsukh: ‘The parties also paid special attention to the Egiin Gol HPP project, which has been discussed for many years, and signed a memorandum of understanding between the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of Mongolia and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation. Thus, I am pleased that as a result of the efforts of both parties, the Egiin Gol hydropower project has moved forward.’

• Hurelsukh: ‘During the meetings and negotiations, the parties also agreed to update and intensify the implementation of projects included in the Mongolia-Russia-China Economic Corridor Programme. This will create conditions for activation of trilateral cooperation within the framework of the Russian initiative ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’, the Chinese programme ‘One Belt, One Road’ and the Mongolian programme ‘Steppe Route’’.

• Hurelsukh: ‘Mongolia stands for the development and expansion of cooperation with its eternal neighbour the Russian Federation within the framework of its peaceful, independent, open and multi-vector foreign policy. We are committed to multi-vectorism in international relations on the basis of respect, pluralism, derived history, culture, civilisation, national interests and development paths of all countries.’

• Putin: ‘In Russia, the contribution of the Mongolian people to the fight against Nazism and militarism is well remembered and appreciated. During the Great Patriotic War, funds raised by Mongolian citizens were used to build fighters of the Mongolian Arat aviation squadron and tanks, which, as part of the Revolutionary Mongolia Brigade, travelled the glorious battle route to Berlin. Mongolia also supplied the Soviet troops with more than half a million horses, which at that time was also a considerable, solid help’.

• Putin: ‘In the course of today’s talks, President Khurelsukh and I considered a wide range of issues of co-operation in the political, economic and humanitarian spheres, exchanged views on the most pressing international and regional problems. As you have just seen, as a result, a number of bilateral agreements were concluded.’

• Putin: ‘Much attention was paid to building up mutually beneficial trade and investment ties. Russia is one of Mongolia’s main foreign economic partners, and in the first seven months of this year trade turnover increased by over 21 per cent. Moreover, commercial settlements between our two countries are already almost entirely carried out in currencies alternative to the dollar and the euro.’

• Putin: ‘The real flagship of Russian-Mongolian economic interaction is the Interstate Joint Stock Company Ulan-Bator Railway. For 75 years it has been making a notable contribution to the Mongolian economy. The long-term programme for the development of the Ulaanbaatar railway, designed for the period up to 2030, is in full swing’.

• Putin: ‘Our partnership in the energy sector is not limited to hydrocarbon exports. The Russian company Inter RAO expects to join the modernisation and reconstruction of Ulaanbaatar’s CHPP-3, help install new equipment and triple the plant’s generating capacity. This will make it possible to increase the reliability of light and heat supply to the residents of the Mongolian capital. Russia will continue to supply Mongolian consumers with electricity’.

After the talks with the President of Mongolia, Vladimir Putin also held separate meetings with the Chairman of the Great State Hural of Mongolia Dashzegwyn Amarbayasgalan and the Prime Minister of Mongolia Luvsannamsrain Oyuun-Erdene. The Russian president also took part in the celebrations marking the 85th anniversary of the joint victory of the Soviet and Mongolian armed forces over the Japanese militarists on the Khalkhin-Gol River. In addition, the Russian delegation led by Putin visited the school of the Ulaanbaatar branch of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

Outcomes/Predictions:

Mongolia, sandwiched tightly between Russia and China, doesn’t play a particularly important role in the economy: a population of 3 million, half of which lives in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, a predominantly agrarian country dominated by the processing industry (with the exception of a mining and processing plant in the city of Erdenet). But it was important for Putin to show that not all countries in the world will honour the orders of the International Criminal Court, which issued the arrest warrant for the Russian president. This was the most important element of Putin’s visit to Ulaanbaatar. The fact that a number of countries (including Armenia) followed Mongolia in declaring their readiness to provide security and immunity guarantees for the Russian president in case of his visit to their countries means one thing: the system built on the Rome Statute has started to actively collapse. 

3. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Primorsky Krai

On Tuesday, 3 September, Vladimir Putin arrived in Vladivostok on a working trip to hold a number of meetings and participate in the IX Eastern Economic Forum, the theme of which this year is ‘Far East-2030. Joining Efforts, Creating Opportunities’.

On the eve of the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum, the Russian President visited the Primorsky Flotilla basing point, listened to reports by Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev and Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic Alexei Chekunkov, familiarised himself with an interactive presentation of the results of the development of the Far East and took part in the opening of new enterprises of residents of the advanced development territories via video link,

Putin also held meetings with representatives of other forum member states during the WEF.

Meeting with Deputy Chairman of the People’s Republic of China Han Zheng

• Putin: ‘In October we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between our countries, and this is an event that has had a very serious impact on our bilateral relations, on the formation of modern China, and on the construction of interstate relations’.

• Putin: ‘Thanks to joint efforts, relations between China and Russia have reached an unprecedentedly high level. We also attach great importance to interregional co-operation. I hope that during today’s meeting and tomorrow’s joint work at the Eastern Economic Forum we will be able to search and find new areas of our co-operation.

• Putin: ‘We are grateful to the President of the People’s Republic of China for sending such a representative delegation to the forum, and we would like to thank you for leading it and for working with us.

• Han Zheng: ‘This year marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. Under your strategic leadership and President Xi Jinping’s leadership, China-Russia relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation continue to develop on an upward trajectory in the new era.’

• Han Zheng: ‘You and President Xi Jinping have already met twice since the beginning of this year, and you have reached a series of important agreements that set the benchmarks for the further development of bilateral relations at the new historic start of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. China is ready to fully and conscientiously implement the important agreements of the two leaders with Russian partners, and to promote the continuous improvement of our cooperation.’

• Han Zheng: ‘Although we are now facing various challenges and risks, under the strategic guidance of our leaders, co-operation between the two countries is steadily advancing in all directions, especially in the trade and economic sphere, to which you pay great attention. We have fulfilled the set task in advance and reached the mark of bilateral trade volume up to 200 billion US dollars’.

Meeting with Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin

• Putin: ‘We have a lot of guests from a large number of countries, and they are representatives of various companies from almost all regions of the world, from Asia, from Europe. I think that in addition to the official discussion and official events, we will be able to communicate with colleagues from other countries, which is also valuable when holding events of this kind.

• Putin: ‘As for our bilateral relations, they do not need special presentation, I mean the deep roots of our relations, the historical roots, and the spiritual closeness of the peoples of Russia, the Russian people, and the Serbian people.’

• Putin: ‘As you know, Russia plays a significant role in providing Serbia with energy resources, and it does so very correctly, at a high level, in a timely manner, on good, very good conditions for Serbia. We will talk about that as well. There are specific things that need to be addressed already. I mean, for example, that our gas supply contracts will expire in March 2025.

• Putin: ‘Of course, your assessments of what is happening in the region in terms of security, the fulfilment of previous agreements at the international level, I mean the Dayton Accords, are very interesting. On this whole range of issues, of course, it would be very interesting and useful to hear your opinion and your assessments.’

• Vulin: ‘As you know, Serbia is not only a strategic partner of Russia. Serbia is also Russia’s ally. That is why the pressure on us from the West is enormous. But the Serbia led by Aleksandar Vucic, the Serbia that will never become a member of NATO, that will never impose sanctions against the Russian Federation, that will never allow any anti-Russian operations to be conducted from its territory – Serbia has not become, will not become part of the anti-Russian hysteria.’

• Vulin: ‘We respect Russia, we value Russia, and the forum I am participating in shows how harmful it is to try to isolate Russia. It is impossible. Serbia will never participate in such a policy. You know that the situation in our region is very complicated when it comes to Serbia. There are unilateral attempts by Pristina to completely change the situation in the territory, to change Resolution 1244, to do ethnic cleansing of Kosovo and Metohija, but it is just as complicated that Pristina does not respect its own decision and its own signature to form the Association of Serbian Municipalities and to implement the Brussels Agreement.’

• Vulin: ‘Republika Srpska is also a matter of our concern because there is strong pressure to reduce Republika Srpska and change the Dayton Agreement. It is impossible to do that. If you want peace, if you want stability, President Vucic is the guarantor of peace, the biggest guarantor of peace and stability in our region. I am very grateful for the opportunity to pass this information to you.’

• Vulin: ‘And we know that wherever the voice of Russia is heard, the voice of Serbia is heard, wherever there are attempts to elide the loud voice of Russia, there will be no Serbia there. And rest assured that the Serbian people, led by President Vucic, will never allow our brotherly relations, our strategic partnership relations to be spoilt.’

Meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim

• Putin: ‘You know that we pay great attention to the development of relations with Southeast Asia, with ASEAN. It is well known that Malaysia plays a leading role in this association. Next year Malaysia will chair, as far as I know, ASEAN. And we are very much looking forward to finding new areas of co-operation with this fast-growing and promising region of the world during your presidency.’

• Ibrahim: ‘You have done so much, and for us in particular, because we cooperate in many different areas, and you have shown that you are eager and ready to overcome difficulties, to survive, and this will really benefit us as well.’

• Ibrahim: ‘And ASEAN also hopes that you will participate in our activities. We co-operate with Russia, we have open trade. We focus on semiconductors, for example, development of other areas. We are ready to work with you, with your team.’

Outcomes/Predictions:

The data from the meeting shows that Russia is trying to have a more active influence on the situation in the Pacific region. This is what the Eastern Economic Forum, the second most important discussion platform in the Russian Federation (after the St Petersburg Economic Forum), is dedicated to. However, Alexander Vulin’s participation in the forum shows that Russia continues to hope for Serbia’s role as a major partner in the Balkans. Notably, the meeting with Han Zheng (the second person in the Chinese hierarchy) is one of a number of meetings with senior Chinese officials and politicians planned for the near future – until Xi Jinping’s visit at the end of December. The meeting with the Malaysian Prime Minister means that one of the key players in Indochina is gradually reorienting towards China and Russia, which could be very painfully perceived in the US. 

4. Putin’s participation in the ninth plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum

On Thursday, 5 September, Putin took part in the plenary session of the ninth Eastern Economic Forum. The theme of this year’s forum is ‘The Far East – 2030. Joining Efforts, Creating Opportunities’. Also participating in the plenary session were Han Zheng, Vice-Chairman of the People’s Republic of China, and Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia. The discussion was moderated by Alexandra Suvorova, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Rossiya-24 TV channel.

Key points from Putin’s speech:

• ‘Our Far Eastern regions give direct access to these growing, promising markets, allow us to overcome the barriers that some Western elites are trying to impose on the whole world. And most importantly, as I have already said, our Far East is a huge space for the manifestation of business initiative, for launching the most complex projects and forming entire new industries.’

• ‘In fact, today the Far East has become, without any exaggeration, the most important factor in strengthening Russia’s position in the world, our flagship in the new global economic reality. And the future of our entire country largely depends on how the Far East will develop.’

• ‘I would like to remind you that there are now 16 advanced development territories and the free port of Vladivostok operating in the Far East. A preferential regime has been launched in the Kurils. A special administrative district has been created on Russky Island, where our meeting with you is taking place. By the way, this district has already ensured that assets worth over five and a half trillion roubles have been returned to Russia from offshore and foreign jurisdictions. More than a hundred companies have become its residents to date.’

• ‘The volume of energy consumption in the Far East is growing. Today it is 69 billion kilowatt-hours per year, and by the end of the decade it is forecast to reach 96 billion. At the same time, some districts, settlements and major Far Eastern investors are already facing power shortages, having to wait for the commissioning of new power plants, which is holding back construction, industrial facilities and infrastructure.’

• ‘The large-scale development plan for the Northern Sea Route has been rolled out. We are building icebreakers, developing the satellite constellation, strengthening the coastal infrastructure, the network of rescue centres. To roll out new logistics routes, so to speak, cabotage voyages were launched along the Northern Sea Route two years ago. Today, 14 ports in the Northwest, Arctic and Far East are in the scheme.’

• ‘Today, the Far East produces all of Russia’s tungsten, tin, fluorspar and boron ores, 80 per cent of diamonds and uranium, more than 70 per cent of the country’s silver and 60 per cent of its gold. At the same time, in key mining centres, including Yakutia and Chukotka, reserves have been developed for a long time and are objectively limited, while demand for minerals is growing, not only for export, but also in our domestic market.’

• ‘First of all, I would like to say that we are not pursuing a policy of dedollarisation. We did not refuse to settle accounts in dollars – we were denied settlements, and we just have to look for other opportunities, that’s all. But that’s not the main thing – the main thing is different.’

• ‘After the Second World War, the United States, of course, used, successfully used the results of the Second World War in the economy, carried out the Marshall Plan for Europe, created one world system – the Bretton Woods system, then it was renovated a little bit, another one. They created a single world currency – the dollar. It depended and still depends, as I repeat, on the amount of power of the country’s economy.’

• ‘Today the Chinese economy, we know it well, is the first in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. Yes, the American economy is powerful, good, its structure is favourable, but the volume of the economy of the People’s Republic of China is bigger. In second place is the United States. But the gap between the two economies is constantly widening, year after year. The use of, say, the yuan in international settlements is also connected with this. The US is in second place, and India is in third place. Russia is already the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. We have overtaken Europe’s leading economy, the Federal Republic of Germany, and more recently – this is international settlements, not ours – we have overtaken Japan.’

• ‘As for the military side of things [the situation in Kursk region], I have already mentioned it. The enemy’s goal was to make us nervous, fuss, move troops from one area to another and stop our offensive in key areas, first of all in Donbass, the liberation of which is our primary goal. Did it work or not? No, the enemy has not succeeded.’

• ‘It’s been a long time since there have been such territorial acquisitions. The day before yesterday only, for example, the Vostok group captured a seven by five kilometre triangle in a single blow. The Centre group is also operating very successfully in the Donetsk, Pokrovsk area. There, too, acquisitions are no longer counted in hundreds of metres, but in square kilometres – four by five, three by five and so on. This is the second.’

• ‘And finally, no less important: the enemy is suffering very heavy losses in both manpower and equipment. I won’t enumerate now, the Ministry of Defence gives these data – I consider them objective, because they are confirmed from several sources at once. And this is fraught, on the one hand, with the destruction of the front in the most important areas, and the losses may simply lead to the loss of combat capability of all armed forces, which is what we are seeking.’

• ‘Speaking of which, diverting to the issue as a whole, one of the enemy’s tasks, of course, was to sow panic in us, to rock the internal political situation in Russia, to sow uncertainty in our actions and so on. But what did it lead to? On the contrary, to the consolidation of society – as is always the case in such cases in Russia, as evidenced by the fact that the number of people, our men, who feel the need to defend the Motherland, the Fatherland, has increased dramatically, the number of people who sign contracts with the Armed Forces has increased.’

• ‘We have already talked about this many times: we have reached almost all the parameters of a possible peace agreement with the government representatives in Kiev, we have agreed on everything. Moreover, the head of the negotiating delegation – and he still heads the ruling party’s faction in the Rada, in parliament – has signed off on these agreements. Yes, there were some things that needed to be finalised, but on the whole, the visa is worth it, it’s a document.’

• ‘Then Mr Johnson came – as you know, the British authorities don’t deny it, they confirm it – he came and instructed the Ukrainians to fight to the last Ukrainian, which is what is happening today, in order to achieve a strategic defeat of Russia. That’s not working out. And the Ukrainian official authorities have publicly stated that if they had done what we agreed with them then, rather than listening to their masters from other countries, the war would have stopped a long time ago. But they took a different path. This is the result.’

• ‘We respect our friends, our partners, who I believe are genuinely interested in resolving all issues related to this conflict. This is first of all the People’s Republic of China, Brazil, India. I am constantly in contact with our colleagues on this issue. I have no doubt that the leaders of these countries – we have trusting relations with them – are sincerely keen to help sort out all the details of this complex process, which, of course, I want to remind you of this, started with the [so-called] ‘coup d’état’ in Ukraine in 2014. After all, that’s where it all started!’.

Outcomes/Predictions:

One of the programme speeches focusing on Russia’s activities in the East. However, it is noteworthy that Putin seems to be making excuses for his actions in Ukraine, trying to justify the unleashed war in Ukraine. The tone of the speech betrays uncertainty and doubt – this is very important for understanding the possible interaction between Russia and the East (primarily China) when discussing the Ukrainian issue.

5. Meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council

On Friday, 6 July, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council via videoconference. The main topic of the meeting was the issue of the airspace control system over the territory of the Russian Federation. It is noteworthy that the speakers on this topic were not announced.

The meeting was attended by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Federation Council Chairman Valentina Matvienko, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, Head of the Presidential Administration Anton Vaino, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, Presidential Aide Nikolai Patrushev, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin, Special Presidential Representative for Environmental Protection, Ecology and Transport Sergei Ivanov.

Outcomes/Predictions:

The issue of air security has recently become a top priority issue for Russia. Ukrainian drones and missiles have increasingly started hitting important targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. Russia is also preparing for the fact that the US may give the go-ahead to use long-range weapons. That is why the issue of the country’s air defence is high on the agenda. Obviously, the main report was to be presented by Lieutenant General Andrei Semenov, commander of the air defence forces. However, there have been a lot of questions about his work recently. It is not excluded that personnel reshuffles may be adopted based on the results of the report.

6. Sergey Lavrov’s interview with the RBC media holding company

On Friday, 6 September, the Russian media holding RBC published an interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recorded on the margins of the Eastern Economic Forum. In it, the Russian Foreign Minister voiced the current foreign policy positions of the Russian Federation, as well as once again raised the topic of relations with the West and the ‘negotiating’ position with regard to Ukraine. 

Key points:

• ‘It is a question of finding opportunities that allow us not to depend on the unipolar world system that Washington and its allies (it has “swept” them under itself as well) are trying to impose in the hope of preserving hegemony. Just as for many centuries the West lived at the expense of former colonies, so now it is trying to live at the expense of others in a more ‘favourable’ form. There are opportunities to circumvent the obstacles erected by the West, using the mechanisms and tools of ‘globalisation’ created by it and offered to everyone else.’

• ‘More and more countries (in fact, all normal, independent countries) have realised that no one is immune from the actions taken now by the West for the sake of maintaining its dominance and in relation to Russia (this is the most striking example), as well as countries such as Iran, Venezuela, the DPRK and increasingly China. It is about the desire to limit its technological development, to prevent China’s competitive advantages, when artificially high tariffs are created on imports of Chinese electric cars. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, says that they do this because China supplies too cheap products to Europe. Where is the fair competition then?’

• ‘As for NATO membership and EU candidate status, which Turkey has had for almost 70 years, as a Turkish official said recently, there are no rules in BRICS that say members of certain organisations cannot have anything to do with the association. The main thing for full members and for countries developing co-operation with BRICS in various forms is to share common values, not the values that the EU constantly defends in Ukraine. They claim that Ukraine is defending ‘European values’, therefore they are obliged to defend these ‘European values’.’

• ‘We do not need the values of Nazism, theories, practices of Nazism, banning freedom of speech, national languages, cultures, traditions, closing canonical churches and others. We have values that can be understood by studying the UN Charter. It says the following – sovereign equality of states, non-interference in their internal affairs, peaceful settlement of disputes, respect, sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. But the General Assembly later clarified that this applies to countries whose government represents all the people living on the territory in question.’

• ‘What the Georgian government is doing now is for them to realise their national identity, and to understand that the Georgian people have the same values of Orthodoxy, of national culture, which will be eroded, erased and subverted by the “rules” that the West is imposing on everyone, primarily in the context of the values of liberal democracy or, if you will, democratic liberalism. Georgians are not satisfied with this. Nor is it satisfied with the unbridled imposition of the LGBT agenda.’

• ‘The Istanbul Principles guaranteed Ukraine’s non-admission to NATO, preserved its non-aligned status, and described security guarantees for Ukraine to feel at ease. Ukraine’s non-accession to NATO is part of the Russian Federation’s guarantees. These principles remain in the works. At least, we are ready to return to them, but, of course, taking into account the new realities. Because more than two and a half years have passed since that moment. President Putin outlined these realities on 14 June, speaking at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He articulated a way to resolve the situation between Ukraine and Russia and the West.’

• ‘I don’t see any possibilities to link any expectations with what is going on in the Ukrainian governing spheres. It’s not only Kuleba who resigned there. There are 7-8 people, including deputy prime ministers and heads of various foundations. There is some kind of squabble in the Verkhovna Rada, someone is ‘not released’, someone’s resignation is ‘approved’. I do not show much interest in it. There are versions that many people are ‘spreading’ in the information space, in particular, that Zelensky wants to change the leading part of the team in order to accuse them of failures and to tell the West again that now, they say, he will make money, but only give him weapons. Some think it’s ‘rats fleeing the ship’. Honestly, I don’t know. I’m not particularly interested in this.’

• ‘About the statements that Ukrainian officials make about the relations of third countries with the Russian Federation – it’s hard to call it anything but boorish. Let’s not forget that after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russian Federation, Zelensky himself said that Modi had dealt a death blow to ‘settlement efforts’. Nevertheless, the Indian prime minister then travelled to Kiev and I’m sure he explained to Zelensky that decent people don’t behave like that’.

• ‘In general, a situation was created on the planet that was revolutionary. As it was in Tsarist Russia at one time. This revolutionarity consisted in the fact that the system of globalisation, created by the Americans, guided by their own interests, lured everyone into it, explaining that it was based on such progressive principles as freedom of market forces, fair competition, inviolability of property, presumption of innocence and much more. They say that this system belongs to the whole world and serves all, without exception, participants in the process (i.e. all countries on Earth). I remember how one of the American politicians in those years promoted the thesis, saying, ‘Don’t think, the dollar is not their national currency. It is a global, world-wide, all-civilisational asset, the ‘circulatory system’ of the world economy, world finance.’

Outcomes/Predictions:

Sergey Lavrov essentially said nothing new. He repeated almost all the same theses as before, making it clear that Russia is ready for negotiations, but not with Ukraine. Russia still considers the war in Ukraine not a self-sufficient process, but an element of confrontation with the West, and therefore intends to negotiate only with the West. That is, the claims and main points regarding the peaceful settlement of the ‘Ukrainian issue’ remain unchanged.