Moldova: waiting for a new president and European integration

Maia Sandu – all in white 

On 22 August, Moldovan President Maia Sandu officially announced her participation in the presidential election and launched her campaign. On this day, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) solemnly presented its candidate for the presidential election. The ceremony took place in the capital’s Digital Park. Maia Sandu came in white, and the whole event was in white and blue tones, with light touches of yellow, the party colour of the pro-presidential party PAS. The same, apparently, will be the colour scheme of the entire election campaign. And it is symbolic: Sandu will distance herself a little from the “yellow” PAS, but not too far. After all, the parliamentary elections are still ahead.  

The event was attended by Prime Minister Dorin Recean and Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu.  Sandu herself stated that she is a “simple Făleşti woman” (Sandu comes from the Făleşti district) working for the people: “In 2024, we will make the most important decision for the country since independence. We will determine our external course in a referendum. I am sure that our people choose peace and freedom. Also in 2024, we choose a president. My programme is clear: better living conditions and mutual understanding,” Maya Sandu said. 

The presentation was made by supporters of the president and members of the initiative group: Mihai Poiate, a member of Moldova’s first parliament, Vitalii Vrabie, the mayor of Ungheni, Maria Akbash, a businesswoman from Gagauzia (she spoke Gagauz and Russian) and others. The initiative group to nominate the candidate was headed by lawyer Eduard Digore. Maia Sandu will go to the elections under the slogan “For Moldova!”.  Sandu’s nomination from PAS is not accidental.  Firstly, she is the creator of PAS. Another important reason for nomination from the party is to balance the ratings. The fact is that, according to polls, Sandu’s rating is higher than that of PAS. And between the presidential and parliamentary elections there is a little more than half a year. And at the parliamentary elections, perhaps, more will be decided than at the current presidential elections. 

There is a situation in which Sandu will have to pull up the PAS rating with her own rating, but at the same time not to lower her rating because of PAS. Therefore, she will once again become the party “locomotive” and will promote the whole party with her charisma and personal rating. Therefore, nomination from the party is rather a forced measure to transfer a part of her personal rating to the party. As an independent candidate, Sandu would look more attractive – without the “plume” of PAS and many mistakes made by this party while in power.

It should not be overlooked that the upcoming elections will be the first to take place against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine. And in this confrontation, the Moldovan authorities are unequivocally on the side of Kiev. The war has become a kind of catalyst for accelerated European integration of both Moldova and Ukraine. Both countries in 2022 simultaneously received the status of candidates to the EU, and in 2024 synchronously began negotiations with the EU on their accession to the organisation. Naturally, the main role in this belongs to the European Union, which has revised its approaches to EU enlargement and the speed at which the candidates pass the stages of rapprochement with the European union. However, one cannot but pay tribute to the Moldovan authorities who have done a tremendous job to convince European partners that the republic should be moved to a new level of co-operation. Tandem Sandu and ex-Foreign Minister Popescu have brilliantly coped with their task and convinced the European officials. Moldova recognises that if Sandu and Popescu had not worked in this direction, it is not certain that Moldova would have received candidate status and would have been admitted to the negotiations. And it is not only because the ruling pro-presidential party “Action and Solidarity” considers EU accession a strategic goal: President Sandu, for example, is sure that it can be realised by 2030. 

Eurointegration successes are important for the authorities in the context of domestic policy as well. The goal of the ruling party is to stay at the helm. The first step towards this is the victory of Maia Sandu in the presidential elections on 20 October. To make Ms Sandu’s association with European integration even stronger, this autumn it was decided to hold another referendum on the country’s accession to the EU, so that it would take place on the same day as the presidential election. Previously, the law prohibited combining national elections with a referendum. But the PAS party, which controls a majority in parliament, promptly voted in favour of the change, and it became possible to combine them. 

Sandu explained her desire to combine the two votes by the fact that the referendum on the choice of an external vector will determine the fate of the republic for years to come. “We want as many people as possible to come to the polling stations. We know from experience that presidential elections have the highest voter turnout,” the president argued. This referendum became a technological “chip” of Sandu’s team and is now inscribed on the banners of her election campaign. The plebescite will change little in terms of impact on the speed of rapprochement with the EU, but it will mobilise pro-European voters to go to the polls and vote for the main pro-European candidate, Maia Sandu. For her, this will be the third presidential election. The first attempt in 2016 was unsuccessful. She lost to Igor Dodon. And four years later, a “rematch” took place and in November 2020, Maia Sandu became the first woman president in the history of independent Moldova.

According to the Constitution, Moldova is a parliamentary republic in which the office of the president is largely representative. However, if the parliamentary majority is formed from a pro-presidential party, the office of the head of state acquires all necessary powers and opportunities to implement all possible reforms and a clear, targeted policy line. 

In the early parliamentary elections of 2021, Sandu’s PAS Action and Solidarity party achieved a phenomenal success with 52.8 per cent of the vote, and the president was given the tools she needed to implement reforms. It should be said that before the elections, many members of the pro-presidential Action and Solidarity party did not believe in an absolute victory. However, a “miracle” happened! For the first time in 30 years, one pro-European force gained full power in the country. And the PAS party owed its brilliant results, first of all, to President Sandu. At that time, many experts compared the convincing victory of the pro-presidential party with the victorious electoral march across Ukraine of the “Servant of the People” party in the early parliamentary elections in 2019. In both cases, the elections resulted in the formation of a mono-majority. 

After barely gaining power, President Sandu and her associates faced crises unprecedented for Moldova in 2022. First, the energy crisis, which was connected with the increase in the price of Russian gas supplied to the country. Following the increase in the price of gas, everything else began to rise in price. Then Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine began. Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe, had to take in 80,000 Ukrainian refugees almost overnight. Inflation went up sharply, the economy almost collapsed. Moldovans felt the consequences of the crisis when they received their gas bills: Thanks to EU assistance, the country was able to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas imports, but gas prices were at record highs. 

Many problems have also arisen with electricity, the main supplier of which is Ukraine. Due to Russia’s missile attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure in November 2022, Moldova was left almost completely without electricity for two days. In addition, the usual logistical chains broke down, and the cost of transporting goods – primarily agricultural products – skyrocketed. As a result, many local producers lost the opportunity to sell their products in such traditional markets as Russia and Belarus. Despite the fact that the authorities managed to avoid economic and social catastrophe amid unprecedented problems, they paid for everything that happened in the country with their reputation and rating, regardless of whether they made efforts to solve the problems or not.

Situationally and tactically, the authorities tried to respond to all these challenges and generally did well. It was much more difficult with the promised reforms, which the “yellows” (the colours of the Action and Solidarity party) had promised to implement quickly and effectively when they fought for power. First of all, it was promised to reform the justice system – an eternal object of criticism both inside the country and from Moldova’s foreign partners. Attempts to fix something in justice were clumsy and only caused scandals, making the authorities look incompetent. The removal of the former Prosecutor General, who later won a case against Moldova in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and non-transparent competitions for important positions in the law-enforcement system were a serious blow to the image of the government, which promised to build honest and transparent state institutions. 

Another sensitive issue is the fight against corruption. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index for 2023, Moldova ranked 80th among 180 countries monitored, and some progress in the fight against corruption has been made. There have been no new “billion-dollar thefts” as in the times when the republic was controlled by oligarchs. But those who were involved in past scams, who built a vicious system in the prosecutor’s office and courts, who worked in it, who fabricated cases, were never punished. Many have not even been fired. And as President Sandu says, the deep-rooted corruption in the republic is still a threat to national security.  But to win an election it is not enough to state the problem, you need to show results. Therefore, in many respects, this explains the authorities’ focus on European integration, where Sandu’s successes are undeniable. 

All the more so because opinion polls show that the EU accession to Moldova is supported by 66 per cent of the country’s population, and Maia Sandu, whose name is firmly associated with the process of European integration, enjoys the support of 39.3 per cent of voters. This figure is twice as high as that of the nearest competitor – the leader of the Party of Socialists Igor Dodon. He is ready to be supported by 16.9 per cent of voters. But Dodon will not be Sandu’s rival. He has already officially announced that he will not take part in the presidential election, and his party will support former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoyangolo – the same one who was dubiously removed from office in 2021, and in 2023 won one case against Moldova in the ECHR and continues to sue the Moldovan authorities. 

Former officials went to the polls in droves

For many experts, the move by Socialist leader Igor Dodon not to run for president, but to support the candidacy of former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoyangolo came as a real surprise. For several reasons, this event became top news. Firstly, Maia Sandu had no opponents on the horizon who could create any intrigue or at least a hypothetical threat to her dominance in the political field. Secondly, Stoyangolo claims the status of a single candidate from the opposition. Thirdly, Stoyangolo’s nomination, as we have already noted, was supported by the largest opposition party, the Party of Socialists, and its leader Igor Dodon has surprised many with his political altruism – according to various polls, Dodon has the highest rating among opposition politicians. 

Moreover, Dodon appealed to all opposition forces to follow his example and proclaim Stoyangolo as a single opposition candidate. Dodon named a list of politicians on whose support he counts:  former president and Communist leader Vladimir Voronin, Our Party leader Renato Usatii, former prime minister and leader of the Party for the Development and Unification of Moldova (PDCM) Ion Cicu, Chisinau mayor and leader of the National Alternative Movement (MAN) party Ion Ceban, former Bashkan of Gagauzia Irina Vlah, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova Vlad Filat and former Interior Minister and ex-leader of the Dignity and Truth Platform (DA) Andrei Nastase. However, the meeting of opposition leaders announced by Dodon did not take place. Dodon’s plan was to create a “platform of support for the people’s candidate” for president, Alexandru Stoianoglo. But something went wrong. The reaction of some representatives of the opposition forces to Dodon’s proposals was clearly negative.

Thus, Andrei Nastase asked Dodon not to call him to such “political productions” anymore. “This is not a new scenario. This is an agreement according to which they should have supported a candidate without political fame, so that Maia Sandu would have a free path to a new mandate. Let him invite his allies from PAS and Maia Sandu,” said Năstase, who, by the way, had earlier announced his intention to run for president himself.

Former Prime Minister Ion Kiku has also already declared his intention to participate in the presidential race, and his position has not changed after Dodon’s proposal. “We do not comment in any way on the electoral actions of political players. We wish success to all opponents. Except for the person who usurped all the power in the country, of course. PDCM has the decisions of the national political council regarding our participation in the elections and referendum – we will adhere to them,” Kiku said.

For his part, the capital’s mayor, Ion Ceban, has already announced his non-participation in the presidential race and emphasised that his party will participate in the parliamentary elections to be held in Moldova in 2025. Our Party leader Renato Usatii, whom Dodon also invited to the meeting, did not attend. He explained that he could not discuss a single candidate with Dodon. Still, Igor Dodon’s broad gesture turned out to be uncharacteristic of the Moldovan political landscape. However, according to Stoiangolo himself, the issue of a single candidate is not yet closed. 

The authorities could not but react to the decision of the Party of Socialists, which in Moldova is regarded as a pro-Russian force, to support Stoyangolo. The main newsmaker was Maia Sandu herself: “The oligarchs and the Kremlin have agreed and found a candidate. Obviously, the Kremlin’s desire to bring thieves back to power in Moldova. Because the Kremlin knows that the thieves will sell out our country, and then the Kremlin can use it for its own purposes. We must stick together and be vigilant to prevent thieves and oligarchs from returning to power. We have a clear path, a serious mission – to bring order to the country, to increase the welfare of citizens, to continue to maintain peace, to build a justice system and a state that can provide a good life for every citizen,” Sandu emphasised. 

Many experts were surprised that the president paid such close attention to a candidate with low recognition. According to political-technological canons, the favourite usually ignores opponents with low ratings in order not to give him political weight, because bad PR is also PR.  However, the Moldovan authorities did not limit themselves to words. After Alexandru Stoiangolo announced that he was going into politics, the authorities “brought to the surface” old cases of abuse of office, initiated when he was Prosecutor General. However, persecution by the authorities may play to Stoyangolo’s advantage – nobody cancelled the halo of the victim.

The Socialists’ left-wing colleagues, the Communists, initially initially announced that they would not support Stoyangolo as a single opposition candidate. Party of Communists (PCMR) leader Vladimir Voronin said his political force would back former Prime Minister Vasily Tarlev in the presidential election. “We worked together for eight years. I was president and he was prime minister. I know him well and he knows everything well. He has not forgotten what a prime minister and a president should do. I will support him not only in the election campaign, but also as president,” Vladimir Voronin promised. The PCRM leader also said that he met with former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo, who is running as an independent candidate with the support of the Party of Socialists. Vladimir Voronin believes that he has “no chances”.

But it seems that now “there are no chances” for Vasile Tarlev either. The Central Election Commission of Moldova cancelled its decision on the registration of the initiative group to collect signatures in support of candidate Tarlev. The CEC stated that Tarlev declared himself an independent candidate, and his team used logos and banners of the Future of Moldova party, of which he is the head, to collect signatures. In addition, as the CEC notes, the contracts for the production of campaign products of independent candidate Vasile Tarlev are also concluded on behalf of the party. In a word, it seems that Tarlev is left out of the election campaign. 

This is not Tarlev’s first unsuccessful attempt to run for president. In 2016, he also “stumbled” at the stage of collecting signatures, only then his initiative group failed to collect the required number of signatures. Vasile Tarlev was prime minister for a record seven years under President Vladimir Voronin. Tarlev’s return to big politics is linked by some Moldovan media to the fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor. Thus, the political party “Renaissance”, which Tarlev used to lead, in 2012 came under Shor’s control and is now a part of the block of the near-Shor’s party “Victory”. Tarlev himself, according to the Moldovan online resource Newsmaker.md, travelled frequently to Moscow, where he was surrounded by people close to Shor and participated in political events. In the winter of this year, the former prime minister headed the party “Our Budjak”, after which it was renamed into “The Future of Moldova”. However, even as the leader of the party, he decided to go to the elections not on behalf of the party, but as an “independent”. We already know how it ended.

According to NM, Tarlev’s name was discussed in Moscow on a list of those who could be a pro-Russian candidate supported by Shor. The list also allegedly included former Moldovan president and Communist leader Vladimir Voronin. But the 83-year-old Voronin later said he was not interested in the presidency. Tarlev denies any links with Shor and says that he was indeed in Moscow, but on other issues. It should be said that the expert community in Moldova was sceptical about Vasil Tarlev’s chances of becoming president, predicting a “ceiling” of 3%.  We will soon find out who the Communists will support. It is not excluded that after the failure with Tarlev, they will now “merge” in a single impulse with the Socialists around the candidacy of Stoiangolo.

It is worth noting that quite a large number of high-ranking ex-officials will take part in the presidential election as candidates. Among them are several ex-prime ministers. Apart from the already mentioned Vasiliy Tarlev – Ion Kiku.

The Party of Development and Unification of Moldova (PROM) nominated him for the presidency. In addition, PROM decided to boycott the referendum on Moldova’s accession to the EU. “This referendum, whatever its result, does not affect or contribute to the process of European integration. You know that what matters most for European integration is the rule of law, reform of justice, observance of democratic standards. However, we are doing badly in this area. I am talking about a real situation, not a declarative one. That is why this referendum will do nothing in terms of European integration,” the politician said. Besides, according to Kicu, the party does not like the fact that the presidential election and the referendum will be held on the same day. The politician regarded this decision of the authorities as a “tactic for the sake of gaining electoral advantages” for President Maia Sandu, who is running for a second term. “This is a dangerous precedent that lowers the threshold for approving constitutional referendums. Because if the constitution is changed in this way, where is the guarantee that others will not come and change it through the same procedure but on more dangerous and serious issues,” he added.

“We are boycotting the referendum as a process, as a campaign. Therefore, we are not participating, we are not promoting this referendum. But by explaining to people the risks and disadvantages of this referendum for the country, it turns out that we are encouraging people to boycott the vote,” Kiku emphasised.

The former prime minister emphasised that despite the boycott of the referendum on Moldova’s European integration, his party remains committed to this vector of the country’s development. “This referendum has nothing to do with European integration. It does not affect the further process of European integration, we will still have to go through the procedures of negotiations, the approval of each EU member. Also, we will have to hold another referendum on EU membership. That is why there is no contradiction between our signature to the Pact for Europe, which demonstrates a clear intention to promote the country’s real integration into the European Union, and the boycott, which, I repeat, is purely for electoral purposes,” Kiku concluded.

On the other hand, another former prime minister, Liberal Democratic Party leader Vlad Filat, who earlier announced his intention to run for president, will not participate in the election. The PLDM claims that the government has blocked the execution of the judgement of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) against Filat. And this makes it impossible for him to participate in the election race. “These actions are a direct attack on the constitutional rights of citizens, including the right to elect and be elected, which undermines the fundamental values of democracy,” the party said in a statement. Recall, Filat was Prime Minister of Moldova from 2009 to 2013. In October 2015, Filat was stripped of his parliamentary immunity. At the same time, he resigned as chairman of the LDPM. In 2016, Filat was sentenced to nine years in prison for benefiting from influence and passive corruption, and was released from prison on parole on 3 December 2019. The court also overturned the decision to strip Filat of the Order of the Republic and the five-year ban on holding certain positions. In August 2020, Filat became the leader of the PLDM again.

Another high-ranking ex-official, former deputy prime minister and ex-minister of internal affairs of Moldova, former head of the Dignity and Truth Platform (DA) party Andrei Nastase has also declared his presidential ambitions. This is his second run for the presidential election. In 2020, he already participated in the presidential race and won 3.26 per cent of the votes. In the first round of the election, he made an unexpected request to Sandu – to withdraw his candidacy in his favour. Sandu refused, but promised to withdraw her candidacy only after Nastase’s victory in the first round. According to some Moldovan experts, Sandu’s decision not to support Nastase was the first crack in their relationship, which finally broke down after she proposed Natalia Gavrilica as prime minister instead of him. After that, Nastase turned into a fierce critic of the incumbent president. He positions himself as an independent candidate: “I am going as an independent candidate, but not independent from my people,” the politician emphasised. Today, the former interior minister has become a real master of epatage and performance art.  

Nastase and his supporters recently held a press conference in front of the presidential administration building, where he spoke about his visit to the United States and his participation in the National Convention of the Republican Party, which nominated Donald Trump as its candidate for the presidency of the United States. Later, his team entered the presidential administration building to present Sandu with the book “Letters to Trump”, which compiles personal letters to Donald Trump from world leaders, celebrities, athletes and businessmen. According to Nastase, if Sandu reads it, he will learn “what real democracy should look like.” He was stopped at the entrance of the building by security officers who did not allow him to proceed further. Nastase eventually asked them to hand the book to Sandu.

On 5 August, Năstase decided to have a public debate with Maia Sandu. He set up two podiums outside the presidential administration building and proposed a debate in a “European and Western spirit”. “I invite you here, Maia. We need to have a debate in a European and Western spirit. Our citizens deserve a president who is not afraid of debates and does not hide from the people. Citizens have the right to know what the president has done for them during the four years of his term,” Andrei Nastase said, accusing Maia Sandu of “poverty”, “emigration of the population” and other problems. 

The former minister proposed to the president to hold the debate on 12 August. Coming to the presidential administration on that day, Nastase again set up two podiums for electoral debates. From the very beginning of his speech, Nastase was booed by activists. As Nestase’s speech was drowned out by the activists’ shouts, he did not finish it and left the podium. “I think we should write a letter to Mrs Sandu. If this is what democracy looks like, it’s a disaster. I will pause and invite her to a debate elsewhere,” Năstase said. Later, Andrei Nastase published online his speech, which he failed to deliver in front of the president’s office. In the message, the politician asks the president and the parliamentary majority to convene an extraordinary session of parliament to implement the results of a referendum held five years ago on the initiative of the Democratic Party, where more than 73 per cent of citizens expressed their wish to reduce the number of deputies from 101 to 61.  

And on 24 August, Andrei Nastase announced the creation of an initiative group and promised to become a president who “will be committed to the country and its citizens”.

Basil Boly’s failed attempts

In April this year, fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor gathered his supporters in Moscow to create an opposition bloc with the high-profile name “Victory”. The Moldovan opposition chose the luxurious Moscow hotel The Carlton in the very centre of the Russian capital for their meeting. The forum at The Carlton was called “Congress of Moldovan politicians and representatives of the Moldovan public”. The description of the event, sent out in advance by the organisers, stated that the hotel would bring together politicians and members of the public “supporting Moldova’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)” and “opposing integration with the European Union”. 

At the congress, Mr Shor announced the creation of the political bloc “Victory” by the parties “Renaissance”, “Chance”, “Alternative Force for the Salvation of Moldova” and the Victorie (“Victory”) party. “Friends, today a truly historic event took place in Moscow: the “Victory” bloc was created. It united opposition figures and people who are not indifferent to Moldova’s destiny,” Ilan Shor proclaimed. Of the four listed parties, two – “Renaissance” and “Chance” – are closely linked to Mr Shor. As for “Alternative Force for the Salvation of Moldova” and Victorie, these political formations were created and registered relatively recently: the first – in 2022, and the second – at the beginning of this year. These parties have not yet proved themselves, have no political weight and do not even appear in opinion polls. 

The Moldovan authorities responded to the congress of Ilan Shor’s supporters with sharp criticism. “The whole country saw the traitors of the Motherland in Moscow. I think we can clearly say that an organised criminal bloc called Victory was created in Moscow. They created it near the Kremlin so that it would be clear who they work for and serve. However, not everyone is on the stage. Some are still hiding in Chisinau behind various parties. In the coming years, we must get rid of them,” Andrei Spinu, Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development of the Moldovan government, wrote on Facebook. Acting Prosecutor General of Moldova Ion Munteanu saw signs of state treason in the creation of the opposition bloc “Victory-Victoria. According to Mr Munteau, the creation of the bloc “tends to threaten the security of the state”. The prosecutor’s office is investigating the actions of several politicians involved in the creation of the bloc. “The prosecutor’s office, investigative bodies and state security bodies are following all actions that take place with the participation of our politicians in Moscow and in due time each action will be qualified. The criminal component of “treason” is also being considered,” the local portal ZDG quoted the prosecutor as saying.

It has become a kind of good tradition to organise congresses of Moldovan oppositionists in Moscow. However, there is nothing surprising in this, given the personal circumstances of the movement’s main ideologist, the Moldovan businessman and leader of the now liquidated Shor party, Ilan Shor, who was sentenced in his home country to 15 years’ imprisonment in a case involving the withdrawal of $1 billion from the banking system. He has not appeared in Moldova since 2019. The first congress of the opposition under the leadership of Ilan Shor was held on 21 April, where it was announced the creation of the pre-election bloc “Victory”. On 9 June, the second congress was held in Moscow, and on 16 August, the “Victory” bloc held its third congress – already with the participation of presidential candidate Vasile Boli. 

Vasile Bolia is an MP, former member of the Party of Socialists and currently one of the frontmen of the Renaissance party. A year ago he ran for mayor of Chisinau. He joined the Renaissance Party, as well as several other ex-socialists, after the socialists supported one candidate and Bolya and several colleagues supported another candidate in the 2023 elections for the Bashkan of Gagauzia. But their candidate Victor Petrov lost in the first round, after which Boley, together with deputy Alexandru Sukhodolski (a socialist at the time), flew to Israel to meet with Ilan Shor, a politician convicted in Moldova for 15 years. Bolya has consistently favoured a “strong friendship” with Russia. At one of the parliamentary sessions he wore a T-shirt with the Putin Team inscribed on it. In his election programme, Bolia promises to restore relations with Russia and turn Moldova towards Eurasian integration. 

The congress of the “Shorovtsy” once again epatapised Moldova. It was held in Moscow on Poklonnaya Hill in the Museum of the Great Patriotic War. Participants and guests were shown a video clip of the leader of the bloc, fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, Bashkan of Gagauzia Eugenia Gutsul and presidential candidate Vasile Bolia laying flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at the Kremlin wall. After laying flowers, the trio jumped into a retro car – of course, a Pobeda – and headed for Poklonnaya Hill. The trio on the screen got out of the car, stepped on the red carpet and under the solemn music moved to the hall where the action took place. Vasily Bolya immediately took the stage: “This is the history of our country, not LGBT marches”. Behind him is a mosaic of black and white photographs of famous personalities from the war years and the Soviet period. 

Then the Bashkan of Gagauzia, Eugenia Gutsul, took the floor. She called the Moldovan leadership – Maia Sandu, Dorin Recean and Igor Grosu – foreign agents. This is the status the Kremlin has devised for all its critics, limiting their rights. But Gutsul said that in Moscow, unlike Moldova, she can breathe freely. She said Moldova’s president, prime minister, and parliament speaker are strangling the Moldovan economy. They are finally destroying democracy, and all those who are dissatisfied are called enemies of the people,” Gutsul said. According to her, the country needs a new leader, namely Vasile Bolia. Then Ilan Shor himself took the stage. According to him, what is happening in Moldova is “collapse, loss and horror”. “We have lost everything we had. If you wake up in the morning and look out the window, you will see a school, a kindergarten, a hospital that our grandparents once built. All this has been destroyed and nothing new has been built,” Shor said. In addition to Moldovan politicians, Russian politicians were also active at the congress and, as expected, sent “arrows of anger” at Maia Sandu. Some experts, summarising the congress, ironically called the event Shor’s “victory”. 

Despite the pompous presentation, the “output” from the congress turned out to be “zero”. The CEC of Moldova rejected the application of the opposition Pobeda bloc to participate in the presidential election and the referendum on the country’s integration into the EU.  According to the CEC decision, it is impossible to register a bloc with a name similar to that of another party. In this case, the name of the block “Victory – Victorie” is similar to the name of the party that is a member of this block – Victorie. CEC member Vadim Filippov stated that the Victorie party is part of the bloc and, therefore, is not an electoral competitor of the bloc. CEC vice-chairman Pavel Postica explained that in the future the party could withdraw from the bloc and become such an electoral competitor. The ruling also drew attention to the fact that the unconstitutional party “Shor” had already joined the bloc, and its leader Ilan Shor was sentenced to 15 years in Moldova. 

The appeal filed by a political force against the CEC decision was deemed inadmissible by the Supreme Court of Justice, which upheld the CEC decision. A sad fate also awaited Vasil Bolu. After the CEC refused to register the “Victory” bloc, Vasil Bolia could not run for this political force and submitted documents for registration of the initiative group as an independent candidate. However, this did not help him and the CEC hurt Bola again. It refused to register Bola’s initiative group, motivating its decision by the fact that the candidate was promoted by the “Victory” bloc, headed by Ilan Shor. Bola himself claims that since 25 August he has had nothing to do with the “Victory” bloc and has complied with all the provisions of the law. According to him, the current government is afraid of competition and of him personally. Thus, after Tarlev, who, however, was indirectly linked to the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, another of his protégés, Vasil Bolia, dropped out of the presidential race.

However, as Moldovan experts point out, Bolia is not the only candidate in Shor’s “pocket”; former prosecutor Victoria Furtune announced her desire to run for president. Furtune recorded a video in which she talks about it allegedly in Tiraspol. At the same time, she called Transnistria “the future front line”. It is worth mentioning that it is impossible to film of such quality without the approval of the local Ministry of State Security (MGB), whose decisions are most often coordinated with Moscow. According to the NM online resource, Furtune has close ties with Ilan Shor, who enjoys her support and resources.

Renato Usatogo’s dreams

Another colourful character of Moldovan politics, the ex-mayor of Balti, Renato Usatii, also dreams of the presidential chair. The National Council of the political party “Our Party” has nominated its leader as a candidate for the presidential elections. He did not hide his presidential ambitions back in 2023, when, in the midst of the local elections, he said: “I will go to the presidential elections with a project. The number one promise that will have to be fulfilled: to do what Maya did not do. I will demand not only lustration, but also a reboot of the state through the adoption of a new Constitution.” 

He started his journey into politics when he was an adviser to Prime Minister Vlad Filat, who was convicted of corruption in 2016 and sentenced to 9 years in prison.  In April 2014, Usatii was elected head of the People’s Republican Party (PRP), which later renamed itself “Our Party” (Partidul Nostru). The new political force announced its intention to go to the parliamentary elections in November of the same year. The start was difficult. The Ministry of Justice refused for various reasons to register Usatii’s political projects – the PPR, Our Party, and the PARUS party (Partido Renato Usatii). Probably because the aspiring public politician began to “chop the truth”: he openly stated that the republic’s leadership was corrupt and that budget money was being transferred offshore. It was believed that the new political force was opposing both Vlad – Plahotniuc and Filat, whom he started as an adviser and against whom he later testified.  

In foreign policy, neither the European Union (which both Vlads favoured) nor the Customs Union (which was advocated by socialist President Dodon) was declared. Ministry of Justice officials responded by openly suspecting Usatii of falsifying 30% of PARUS members and “illegal use of external funding”. The Ministry of Internal Affairs launched an investigation. Accusations about Usatii’s ties with criminals appeared in the press. Usatii denied these accusations, but for the sake of safety decided to fly from Chisinau to Moscow. Renato Usatii and his party went to the polls under the slogans “Strength in Truth” and “Moldova without Corruption”, and according to opinion polls, the new force would have passed the parliament with confidence. After the elections in February 2015, Usatomu was allowed to re-establish the People’s Republican Party, rename it “Our Party” and register it. The famous politician “took revenge” in the election of the mayor of Balti, the “northern capital” of Moldova. Usatii won with a landslide 74 per cent of the vote. 

Two years later, in 2017, Our Party nominees were leading municipalities throughout the north of the republic and in the south, in the Gagauz autonomy. While Chisinau and the centre of the republic were generally pro-Western and pro-Romanian, Moldova’s north and south were oriented towards Russia and Eurasian cooperation. Once in power, Usatii continued to position himself as an opponent of the Chisinau elite. When the then ruling Democratic Party intended to make oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc prime minister, Our Party activists took to the streets. It was a now strange-looking alliance with Dodon’s pro-Russian Socialists and supporters of the pro-Western Dignity and Truth coalition against Plahotniuc. In February 2018, Usatii resigned as mayor of Balti because the state chancellery did not authorise a referendum of confidence in the city’s head. In November 2019, after another political crisis and the “overthrow” of Plahotniuc, Usatii officially became the mayor of Balti for the second time, winning in the first round with 61.93% of votes.

In the country’s 2020 presidential election, the politician won 16.9 per cent of the popular vote. He came third behind the nominee of the right-liberal PAS party, Maia Sandu, and incumbent President Igor Dodon. Despite the differences in political views, in the second round Usatii supported Sandu, who was elected president of the country not without his help. It is also known that in the run-up to Sandu’s inauguration, Renato Usatii took part in the actions of Dodon’s opponents. Usatii is remembered for his controversial statements on foreign policy. For example, he promised to build a replica of the Great Wall of China on the border with Romania and to “close the US Embassy and open a karaoke club in its place”. During the two and a half years of Russia’s war against Ukraine, many Moldovan parties that previously called for co-operation with Russia have become supporters of European integration. Among them is Renato Usatii’s Nasha Party, which has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. In November 2023, Usatii asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to strip him of his Russian citizenship. According to the politician’s admission, he cooperated with Russia in 2018 and even secretly obtained citizenship for himself and his parents. But now he is ready to surrender his Russian passport. 

According to Igor Dodon, chairman of the Party of Socialists, “Renato Usatii will play the role of a Trojan horse in the upcoming Moldovan presidential election: PAS has two candidates in this election – Maia Sandu and Renato Usatii,” infotag.md reports. “All PAS TV channels show Renato Usatii every night. He is there trying to flirt with something, that I am against Maia Sandu. No! He’s already prepared a bouquet of yellow roses, like four years ago. He’s a Trojan horse against the opposition. Sandu’s task is to go to the second round exactly with Usatii, because only with him she can win,” the former Moldovan president believes.

Renato Usatii himself is trying to make the adoption of a new Constitution the “highlight” of his election campaign. “Exactly 30 years ago, the first Constitution of Moldova was adopted. Since then, the basic law of the state has been changed many times, and the changes were almost always opportunistic. As the power changed, so did the constitution. Like in an old Soviet comedy. In fact, it is not funny,” Usatii said.

The leader of “Our Party” believes that the adoption of the new Constitution will make it possible “to preserve the viability of the Moldovan state and lay a solid foundation for its further sustainable and long-term development”. “I am consistently in favour of the nationwide elaboration and adoption of the new Constitution. And I am ready, in the interests of the state and with full responsibility before the people, to go towards the realisation of this goal. The new Constitution is not just a new law, it is a pledge of the future of our country and its citizens,” Renato Usatii emphasised. Moreover, Usatii advocates holding a referendum to find out whether the Moldovan citizens support the idea of holding early parliamentary elections. According to him, only early parliamentary elections will “save Moldova” and determine “the right course of our country”.

Ex-bashkan and “Moldovan Sobchak”

The former Bashkan of the Gagauz autonomy, Irina Vlah, also announced her desire to run for president. She started her career as a lawyer in the tax inspectorate of the town of Ceadir-Lunga, and later became head of the legal department of the Executive Committee of Gagauzia. She served two terms as head of Gagauzia, the last of which ended in 2023. According to the legislation in force, Irina Vlah could not run for this position for the third time.  After that, she announced that she was going into big politics. However, the former head of Gagauzia was already an actor of national politics. 

Vlah was a member of the Moldovan Parliament for ten years, from 2005 to 2015. She was elected on the lists of the Party of Communists (PCRM) and, accordingly, represented the parliamentary majority until 2009. In 2014, she left the Communist faction, accusing them of co-operating with pro-European parties, and in 2015 she left the PCRM altogether. In the bashkan elections, she has already run as an independent candidate, though with strong support from the Party of Socialists (PSRM). In 2015, Vlah won with the slogan: “It is in our power to be together with Russia”. At that time, she was actively supported by the PSRM, and despite the fact that she positioned herself as an independent candidate, she appeared on billboards with Socialist leaders Igor Dodon and Zinaida Grecianii. In the presidential election, Vlah supported Dodon.

But then something changed. The Bashkan began actively learning Romanian and spoke of the European Union as the “cradle of democracy”. Some experts believed that from the moment Vlah “spoke Romanian” and actively demonstrated it, it became clear that the Bashkan was aiming for Republican politics. Running for a second term, Vlah changed her rhetoric, replacing friendship with Russia with “Gagauzia is open 360 degrees”, i.e. the vector changed and became directed not only to Russia, but also to other partners. It is worth mentioning that in the early parliamentary elections in the summer of 2021, Vlah did not speak in favour of the Socialists, who were in a bloc with the PCRM. 

Another important stage in Vlach’s metamorphosis is the war in Ukraine. After Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, it began to avoid topics related to Russia. However, despite the fact that about 100,000 Gagauz live in the Odessa region, the authorities of the autonomy never once spoke out about the situation in Ukraine or showed any concern for the Gagauz living there. At the same time, speaking with a special address on the first day of the war, Vlach did not call Russia the aggressor, but only said that this is a great tragedy and in this war “there will be no winners and losers”.

Iryna Vlakh actively opposes the actions of the current government. As an ex-officio member of the government, she has repeatedly criticised the cabinet and Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilica.  Vlakh has an almost open confrontation with President Maia Sandu. For example, the bashkan was not invited to the inauguration of the president, and their first full-fledged working meeting took place after a year of Sandu’s presidency.

After Irina Vlah left the post of the Bashkan of Gagauzia, she was busy promoting herself: she wrote an autobiographical book and actively managed social networks. Almost every day she posts videos on her page, in which she answers questions sent to her and speaks on general political topics. The videos are mostly in Romanian. Besides Facebook, they appear on Instagram and TikTok, with TikTok gaining tens of thousands of views. In addition, Irina Vlach has travelled extensively around the country, with a clear focus on education. In the districts, she visited local schools, and in Chisinau she held meetings at universities, including the Creanga Pedagogical University and the Moldovan State University.

In 2023, she tried to become a unifier of the Moldovan opposition, of course around her person. She announced the creation of the public association “Platform Moldova”. Where she held one or two round tables with the help of local political technologists, but the platform’s activity was limited to that. Preparing her project of restarting the national policy, keeping pro-European rhetoric, Vlah continued to fly to Moscow, about what she does not like to inform journalists Today her main pre-election “chips” are: neutrality, peace and security. She believes that incumbent President Maia Sandu and the Action and Solidarity Party, which supports her, have created a threat of Moldova being dragged into war. Vlah said that as president she would become a guarantor of peace. According to polls, the majority of Moldovans want peace and do not want to see Moldova involved in any geopolitical confrontation. Therefore, Vlah is trying to tightly “ride” this information flow, making Sandu the head of the war party.  Vlah’s early start, tours around the country, and blogging brought her the first results. According to the latest opinion polls, 4 per cent of voters are ready to vote for the future independent candidate Irina Vlakh, which is not so bad for a campaign stratum.

Natalia Morari, a well-known Moldovan journalist, also decided to run for president. She posted a video on her YouTube channel in which she explained her decision by her desire to bring about changes in the country. Mrs Morari will run her campaign under the slogan “Change here and now”. “We have lost hope, we have lost confidence. But we can become a country that everyone will talk about with admiration. We need to focus on solving internal problems, we can no longer afford to wait for decades, listening to empty promises about the distant future,” said Ms Morar.

She is 40 years old. She is sometimes called “the Moldovan Sobchak”. Morar started her journalistic career in Russia, where she graduated from the sociology department of Moscow State University in 2007. She started working for The New Times magazine, but in late 2007 she was banned from entering Russia. The ban was lifted only in 2012.

In Moldova, Natalia Morari was long known as the “organiser of the 7 April 2009 riots”, when the opposition protested against President Voronin. She did not admit her guilt and claimed that she only took part in a peaceful action. The charges against her were later dropped. Morari became an active journalist. Since 2010, she worked for the Moldovan TV channel Publika TV, then for TV7 and TV8, where she was one of the founders.

In 2021, Natalia Morari resigned from the board of TV8, explaining that it was the result of “pressure” from the Information and Security Service (SIS). Morari said that the ISS was blackmailing her with information about her personal life and announced that the father of her child was a businessman with a controversial reputation, Veaceslav Platon, who was later declared wanted in Moldova. The information about Morar’s relationship with Platon caused a scandal, as it turned out that she had done an interview with him while she was already in a relationship. As a result, her programme on TV8 was finally closed down, and Morar became one of the first and few examples of the professional and political community she belonged to. After that, Morar briefly worked with the N4 TV channel, but her programme there was closed down for “image reasons”. Morari then moved to Youtube, where she hosts the programmes Morari Live and Takaya Moral, where she harshly criticises the current government of Sandu and PAS, whom she claims she almost “brought to power”, but now she is severely disappointed. 

Today, many people in Moldova are perplexed: why does Morari need this? It is no secret that Natalia has long been linked to Veaceslav Platon, who continues to support her financially, paying for expensive advertising on Facebook. Moreover, Platon himself promotes posts that talk about the uselessness of the 20 October referendum, that its results will not affect EU accession. About the fact that the government is ready to accept all EU demands. The posts also claim that the central authorities are putting pressure on Gagauzia and exaggerating the risk of a Russian attack on Moldova, allegedly in pursuit of their political goals. The two of them and Shor have spent about €136 thousand on Facebook promotion over the past three months – more than €73 thousand spent by Shor and €63 thousand by Platon. 

As we have already noted, the businessman is wanted in Moldova – he is accused of corruption and fraud. In addition, Vyacheslav Platon, who now lives in the UK, was sentenced in absentia in 2023 by the Tverskoy Court of Moscow to 20 years in a strict regime colony for illegally withdrawing foreign currency funds from Russia in the amount of more than 126 billion rubles. In addition, his sister is imprisoned in Moscow. Therefore, Russia has enough opportunities to keep him on the hook and make him play by its rules. Therefore, as a number of experts point out, Moscow is behind Platon, and Moscow is behind Morar. And this tandem, criticising Sandu, will try to “bite off” a piece of her pro-European electorate. 

However, there is another, let’s say, conspiracy version of Morar’s participation in the presidential election. 

The well-known journalist is called to partially “deflect suspicion” from another candidate, Aliaksandr Stoianoglo. Both Stoyanoglo and Morar are accused of links with Platon. Therefore, Morar’s participation in the race seems to demonstrate that she, not Stoyanoglo, is “Platon’s true candidate”. Natalia Morar’s chances are small, but her financial resources are large. And this makes her a notable, if not electorally, then certainly in the media, figure, capable of presenting more than one surprise. 

In the meantime, the CEC is registering initiative groups to collect signatures, then it will be time to register candidates, and after 20 September the campaign will begin, so to speak, a contest of images and meanings. So, we have two months of exciting and intriguing struggle for the presidential seat ahead of us.