Russia for the week (01.07-07.07)

1. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan 

On Wednesday, July 3, Vladimir Putin arrived in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, to participate in a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As part of the event, the Russian president held separate talks with the leaders of the SCO member states, during which they discussed not only issues related to the organization’s activities. 

Meeting with the President of Mongolia, Uhnagiin Khurelsukh:

• Putin: “I am very pleased with our new meeting. This year we celebrate a significant date – 85 years of the victory in the battle on the Khalkhin-Gol River against the Japanese aggressors”.

• Putin: “It should be noted that last year we noted a slight decline in the volume of trade turnover, but this year we see a significant growth, and a good pace has been gained in the first half of this year”.

• Putin: “Relations in the humanitarian sphere continue to develop. I would like to note that the quota of Mongolian students to study in Russia is one of the largest – 620 people. We are ready to work on this further and increase it.

• Putin: “By the way, energy has been and remains one of the main areas of our cooperation. The work is well established, but we can also talk about expansion, I mean hydrocarbons and electricity, there is a lot to talk about.

• Putin: “Now the agreement between Mongolia and Eurasec is being finalized, and it seems to me that this will be another good step, which will not only strengthen the formal contractual and legal basis of our relations, but will also create real new opportunities for expanding our cooperation.”

• Hurelsukh: “I would like to express my gratitude and also congratulate you on your re-election as President of the Russian Federation, which is proof that the Russian people give you their full support and support your country’s development policy. Therefore, on behalf of myself and the Mongolian people, I once again congratulate you on your re-election. I think that this is the result of the fact that your policy is the right one”.

• Khurelsukh: “This year our cooperation is rich in various anniversaries: the 85th anniversary of the victory at Khalkhin-Gol, as well as the flagship of our bilateral cooperation, the joint-stock company “UBZhD” [“Ulan Bator Railway”] celebrates the 75th anniversary of its establishment [“Ulaanbaatar Railway”] celebrates the 75th anniversary of its establishment. We celebrate these anniversaries with great achievements”.

• Khurelsukh: “We have increasing transit traffic from Europe, Eurasian transit traffic directions, and increasing freight traffic from Europe to China. We think that this will be a good opportunity to increase the capacity of the UBZhD. Such a need is overdue, and one of the three economic trade corridors is the UBZhD. We need to build a parallel railroad and electrify our existing railroad”.

• Hurelsuch: “We are experiencing a big energy deficit. The economy is growing, the demand in the energy sector is also growing. My Chinese colleagues and I have built the Erdeneburen HPP, and this project is developing very actively. At our meeting in Beijing, I told you that it would be good to conduct a similar project with the Russian Federation, I am talking about the Egiin-Gol HPP project. Of course, we are aware of the environmental issues, and we are ready to solve them together with the Russian side.

Meeting with the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev:

• Putin: “I draw attention to the fact that on the key issue, namely trade and economic interaction, our relations are developing positively. Four billion-plus in trade turnover and 4.3-4.5 billion in direct Russian investments in Azerbaijan’s economy. The trend is good: in the first half of the year, I think, 13 percent growth, in general, everything is developing positively”.

• Putin: “I would like to mention our plans in the field of infrastructure, and of course, the famous North-South highway comes first here. I hope we will also say two words about it. There are opportunities in other areas as well, including energy and industrial cooperation.

• Putin: “I will also note the humanitarian component, I think the Days of Russian Culture in Azerbaijan have just ended. And I always note your personal special attention to the support of the Russian language, more than 300 schools in Azerbaijan work with the Russian language, teach young people, children the Russian language. This creates a good base, a prospect for maintaining and developing our relations in the future”.

• Aliyev: “It is gratifying that mutual settlements in national currencies are also growing: more than 70 percent of Azerbaijani exports to Russia and about 50 percent of Russian exports to Azerbaijan. So, what we talked about a few years ago is already being successfully realized”.

• Aliyev: “We discussed the North-South project with you last time in Moscow. There have been positive developments since then, we will talk about it. We are determined to expand the infrastructure of the corridor on Azerbaijani territory, although it physically exists, but it does not correspond to the intentions of our partners and neighbors to maximize the use of this project”.

• Aliyev: “As you noted, in 2022 we signed a declaration of alliance, which is being successfully implemented and all points of the declaration are reflected in real life. We have been working together as allies for more than two years and have demonstrated good results. We will talk about it in detail today.

Meeting with Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan:

• Putin: “I would pay special attention to two areas. First of all, it is cooperation in energy and agribusiness. Our energy supplies to Pakistan have begun, and we are ready to increase them. At your request, Russia is also trying to contribute to Pakistan’s food security. We are increasing supplies of grain to the Pakistani market.

• Putin: “Our relations are friendly and have been developing for decades, and we are very happy about it. And I hope that our meeting today will also serve to further strengthen bilateral ties between Pakistan and Russia”.

• Sharif: “Mr. President, I am very happy that our bilateral relations are on the rise. We have seen this in recent years and we are very encouraged by it. I would like to work closely with you to further strengthen our relations. We have a lot to do and we can benefit from your experience”.

• Sharif: “Of course, we can strengthen our trade as well. At the moment the trade turnover is 1 billion dollars, and at my request you have kindly given us the opportunity to increase our energy cooperation. We have received oil supplies from your great country, we are very grateful for that. We should continue to follow this path”.

• Sharif: “If you remember, last time I told you that in the 50s, 60s, 70s we had barter trade. We imported a lot of machinery and products from the Soviet Union, exported textiles and leather to your country. And all this was done on barter terms. It seems to me that now it is time to overcome financial and banking problems and resume and expand our trade relations on barter terms. This would be very good for Pakistan. We could overcome many other problems.

Meeting with President Turkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan:

• Putin: “I would like to note that despite all the difficulties of the current moment in the world, the relations between Russia and Turkiye are developing progressively. We have noted a slight decline in trade turnover over the past few months, but it remains at a fairly high level – 55 billion dollars, if we count it in dollar equivalent”.

• Putin: “All our major projects are being implemented. In this sense, everything is on schedule, according to plan. There are no glitches. I would like to note that last year we probably saw a record number of our tourists in Turkiye – 6.3 million tourists from Russia visited Turkiye. I would like to thank you for the conditions that are created in Turkiye for the citizens of the Russian Federation”.

• Putin: “Of course, we continue to work actively on a number of important areas of international policy, we are in constant contact with you. Our ministries and agencies are constantly exchanging information and coordinating positions on key areas. We are working on the platforms of international organizations and within the framework of international associations. We are very glad to see you and meet you on one of them – on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization”.

• Erdoğan: “For a long time, my dear friend and I have not been able to meet, we had “telephone diplomacy”. But in the meantime, the relevant bodies were in constant contact with each other. This applies to our Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Treasury, the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. They have been in constant contact with their counterparts in Russia. Now we are here with you. This is a very important step.”

• Erdogan: “As for the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, we are building it together with you. We wish that we will be able to put it into operation as soon as possible. Following this, we have our contacts regarding the construction of a second nuclear power plant in Sinop. We can take serious steps, I believe there will be serious steps. Regarding this issue, I would like to note that our Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy continues contacts with its colleagues from Russia. As a result of these meetings, I would like to note that contacts continue between Botash and Gazprom on a sincere basis.”

Meeting with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping:

• Putin: “If we return to today’s event and tomorrow’s, I would like to recall that our countries were at the origins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001. With the expansion of the circle of participants, and tomorrow Belarus will become another full member of the organization, the organization has strengthened its role as one of the key pillars of a fair multipolar world order. We will certainly support China’s chairmanship in the SCO in 2024-2025.

• Putin: “It has been stated more than once with good reason that Russian-Chinese relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are experiencing the best period in their history. They are built on the principles of equality, mutual benefit and respect for each other’s sovereignty. Our cooperation is not directed against anyone. We are not creating any blocs or alliances. We are simply acting in the interests of our peoples.

• Putin: “Trade is growing. We noted this during my visit to the People’s Republic of China. And today we can state it once again. In the first half of this year, we have noted positive dynamics.

• Putin: “At present, joint efforts are aimed at the consistent implementation of the plan for the development of key areas of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation until 2030, approved following your visit to Moscow, distinguished Mr. Chairman, in March 2023.”

• Xi Jinping: “The agreements reached between us are now being fully implemented, and our multifaceted cooperation is steadily advancing along the course we have set out. In the face of a far from simple international situation and foreign environment, we need to maintain our commitment to friendship forever, work hard for the well-being of peoples, enhance the unique value of Sino-Russian relations, cultivate new drivers of cooperation, and make unremitting efforts to protect our legitimate rights and interests as well as the basic norms of international relations.”

• Xi Jinping: “Tomorrow’s summit in Astana will be the most important event of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization this year. I am ready to hold the most thorough conversation with you and our other colleagues on strengthening the SCO and cooperation in various areas, to promote the sustainable development of our organization in the interests of building a closer community of common destiny for the SCO”.

Meeting with the President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Jomart Tokayev:

• Tokayev: “As for bilateral cooperation, since your very important, one could say historic visit in November last year, it has been developing on an upward trajectory. I myself personally supervise the realization of the agreements reached and signed. The projects that were agreed upon during your visit are very important and, in fact, epitomize the strategic nature of cooperation between our states. Therefore, I have no doubts that they will be implemented, as they correspond to the interests of Kazakhstan and, of course, the Russian Federation”.

• Tokayev: “I would like to take this opportunity to invite you to make another visit to Kazakhstan in November this year, to combine it with your participation in the meeting of the Supreme Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. I believe that this is simply necessary in order to maintain the momentum of cooperation between our countries, and I hope to see you once again with a state visit in our country.

• Putin: “I would like to point out that Kazakhstan on the one hand and Russia on the other, we lead and chair a number of international organizations and hold forums. You are in SCO and CSTO, and Russia is in BRICS and CIS. So we will support and help each other.

• Putin: “I would like to express my gratitude to you for the invitation to pay a state visit to Kazakhstan. Of course, it is most rational to do it in connection with the CSTO summit. We will definitely do it, I am grateful to you for this invitation, it is certainly accepted”.

• Putin: “As for our bilateral relations, we are in constant contact with you. But still, I can’t help but note that trade turnover is growing, it has reached almost 30 billion dollars, more than 28 billion, it is a very solid figure. Russia remains one of the main trade and economic partners of Kazakhstan, with more than 17 percent of the trade turnover”.

Meeting with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Chief Executive of Iran:

• Putin: “At the beginning of this conversation, I would like to note that Iranian-Russian relations are truly friendly and constructive. I am confident that our relations will strengthen regardless of the outcome of the elections in your country. We wish the Iranian people a successful second round of elections”.

• Putin: “The free trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union and Iran will certainly contribute to further strengthening of our economic ties. The member states of the organization are considering Iran’s application for the status of an observer state in the Eurasian Economic Union. For our part, we support this.

• Putin: “Tourist flows are also becoming active. The number of tourists to Iran has increased by a quarter. I should also note that our approaches to key issues on the international agenda are virtually identical. We are united by our aspiration to create a multipolar world order, to observe all norms of international law, to preserve the central role of the UN. I would ask you to convey my wishes for good health and well-being to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mr. Khamenei”.

• Mokhber: The strategy of establishing very close, deep relations with the Russian Federation is one that has been developed by the spiritual leader of Iran, and he is constantly [overseeing] its implementation. First of all, I would like to convey to you the greetings and best wishes of the spiritual leader of Iran and express my gratitude for your diligence in promoting our work. I would also like to thank you for sending a high delegation to honor the memory of our martyred President.”

• Mokhber: “The spiritual leader said that our relations with the Russian Federation are so deep and unchanging that all changes in the government do not in any way impinge on these relations. It is obvious that the strategic relations between Iran and Russia violate the equations of world domination, and unilateralism has outlived its usefulness. We should especially thank the deceased President Raisi for his sincere efforts, thanks to which we were able to present a new version of Iran-Russia relations.”

Meeting with the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani:

• Putin: “Relations between Russia and Qatar are built on a very good basis, on a friendly basis. Of course, our trade turnover is small in absolute terms, but it has good growth prospects and good trends.

• Putin: “Investment cooperation continues on both sides. Our central banks are working. Dialogue is underway on Qatar’s possible connection to the North-South transport corridor. Humanitarian ties are developing.

• Putin: “I would also like to thank you for your efforts aimed at resolving humanitarian issues, issues that arise in the course of and in connection with the Ukrainian crisis. It is through your mediation that we have been able to return children from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides to their families.

• Putin: “In addition, we know that you are one of the most effective mediators in the crisis in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel. We are well aware that you are making very energetic efforts to agree on positions on the ceasefire and on the exchange of detainees. Your Highness, you know that Russia, for its part, is also making efforts to resolve this crisis situation, which, in our deep conviction, can be fundamentally resolved only if the relevant UN decisions are implemented. And above all it is connected with the need to create two states – both Israel and Palestine”.

• Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani: “Qatar’s investments in the Russian economy and projects in Russia reach about 13 billion dollars, and we intend to increase this figure. Yesterday we had dinner with you and I talked about the opportunities for investment in the Russian economy.

• Tamim Ben Hamad Al-Thani: “Mr. President, I also want to thank you, you have mentioned the humanitarian role played by Qatar. I want to assure you that we will continue to carry out this work. Thank you very much for the trust you have placed in us regarding the return of Russian and Ukrainian children to their families. Of course, we would like this crisis to be resolved, but in a way that would satisfy both sides.

• Tamim Ben Hamad Al-Thani: “You mentioned the crisis in Gaza, the war that is going on there now. As I said, we seek an end to this conflict through negotiations between the parties concerned. We want a cease-fire, a stop to the war. We would like to see arrested and detained persons, Israeli prisoners and representatives of other states return to their families.”

• Tamim Ben Hamad Al-Thani: “What is happening now is unacceptable. The destruction that we are now seeing in the Gaza Strip, the tens of thousands of children, women, just civilians who have died as a result of these events. A Palestinian State must be established within the 1967 borders. I know that the Russian Federation supports this position, so the first thing we seek is to end the war, and the second thing is to implement the international legal framework that is in place.”

Totals/Predictions:

Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan had a dual character. On the one hand, it was indeed a visit to the summit of the SCO heads of state; on the other hand, it was Putin’s new visit to Central Asia, which was preceded by a number of events in the region (the key one being the Kazakh foreign minister’s confession that Russia was hatching plans to occupy Kazakhstan’s northern regions). Moscow and Astana have many unclosed “gestalts”. President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly and defiantly taken a separate position on a number of issues, including the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia’s activities in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, and the prospects for the Baikonur Cosmodrome after the end of the Russian-Kazakhstani agreement on its operation. It was important for Putin to show that there are no serious problems for Russia in Central Asia and Kazakhstan in particular. 

Moreover, holding personal meetings with all the heads of SCO member states, although it was a formal event, once again demonstrated to the world community that Putin is not a pariah among the leaders of the Global South. Undoubtedly, such a “picture” is built on purpose and has very clear goals. The upcoming visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow should also be viewed in a similar vein. 

2. Participation of Vladimir Putin in the meeting of the Council of Heads of SCO Member States

In Astana, Vladimir Putin took part in a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states, as well as in a meeting in the SCO Plus format. The meeting was chaired by the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

At the beginning of the meeting, the leaders signed the decision to grant the Republic of Belarus the status of a SCO member state. Also, the Astana Declaration and a number of other documents were signed at the end of the meeting.

Main aspects of the Astana Declaration:

• “Tectonic shifts are taking place in world politics, economy and other spheres of international relations. A more equitable and multipolar world order is emerging, opportunities for the development of states and the realization of mutually beneficial and equitable international cooperation are expanding. At the same time, the use of force is increasing, international law is being systematically violated, geopolitical confrontation and conflicts are growing, and risks to stability in the world and the SCO region are multiplying”.

• “Member States noted that in order to strengthen the credibility and effectiveness of the UN, it is important to ensure the representation of developing countries through comprehensive UN reform.”

• “Member States reiterate that the unilateral and unrestricted build-up of global missile defense systems by individual countries or groups of States has a negative impact on international security and stability. They consider unacceptable attempts to ensure their own security at the expense of the security of other States”.

• “Member States emphasize that double standards are unacceptable in the fight against terrorism. Terrorism in any form or manifestation cannot be justified, condoning and harboring terrorists must be strongly condemned by the entire world community. They consider the use of information space by terrorists to spread extremist ideology, including among young people, to be a serious threat”.

• “Member States welcomed the Resolution adopted annually by the UN General Assembly on ‘Combating the glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism and other practices that contribute to fuelling contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance’.”

• “The Member States that are parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of July 1, 1968, advocate strict compliance with the provisions of the Treaty, the comprehensive and balanced promotion of all the goals and principles enshrined therein, the strengthening of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, the continuation of the nuclear disarmament process, and the promotion of equal mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy.”

Key talking points from Putin’s speech:

• “Russia attaches great importance to partnership cooperation within the SCO. We are pleased to note that this interaction continues to develop steadily on the principles of equal rights, consideration of each other’s interests, respect for cultural and civilizational diversity, and the search for collegial solutions to pressing security issues”.

• “The agreed approaches of the SCO countries to key aspects of the global and regional agenda are reflected in the Astana Declaration submitted for approval at the summit. It further highlights the commitment of all SCO participants to the formation of a just multipolar world order based on the central role of the United Nations, international law and the aspirations of sovereign States to a mutually beneficial partnership”.

• “Close economic ties bring obvious dividends to all participants. The facts speak for themselves: for example, the average GDP growth of our member countries last year was more than five percent, industrial production – 4.5 percent, while the inflation rate was only 2.4 percent. At the same time, Russia’s trade turnover with the SCO states increased by a quarter.

• “It goes without saying that one of the priority tasks in the SCO’s activities has been and remains the maintenance of security in its member States and along the perimeter of its external borders. This is precisely the purpose of the decisions being taken today to transform the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure into a universal center to respond to the entire range of security threats and to establish an anti-drug center in Dushanbe. The three-year program of cooperation in this area, which we are approving, will also contribute to the fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism.

• “The multipolar world has become a reality. The circle of states that advocate a just world order and are ready to vigorously defend their legitimate rights and protect traditional values is growing. New centers of power and economic growth are emerging and strengthening. We are convinced that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, along with the BRICS, are the main pillars of the emerging new world order. It is these organizations that act as a powerful engine of global development and the establishment of true multipolarity.

• “By the way, in a similar vein is Russia’s proposal to create a new architecture of cooperation, indivisible security and development in Eurasia to replace the outdated Eurocentric and Euro-Atlantic models, which gave unilateral advantages only to individual states. The result of such a world order is well known: a growing number of crises around the world, one of which, of course, is the Ukrainian crisis.

• “Russia has always advocated and still advocates a peaceful, political and diplomatic resolution of the situation in Ukraine, the crisis that has arisen as a result of the absolutely unceremonious policy of the United States of America led by its satellites. We have repeatedly put forward specific proposals in this regard. I recall that in mid-June we presented another option for a settlement, which – if the Ukrainian side and, most importantly, its Western sponsors were prepared to accept it – would make it possible to literally cease hostilities immediately, immediately, save human lives and begin negotiations.

• “As has already been emphasized, as the authority and influence of the SCO strengthens, other states and international organizations are becoming increasingly interested in its activities. Many of them are eager to establish an equal dialogue with our organization and become involved in its work. And, naturally, we must carefully consider the entire solid portfolio of applications from those who wish to cooperate with us in one capacity or another.

Putin’s speech at the SCO Plus meeting:

• “I think that the interest in the work of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is primarily due to the fact that the basic values and ideals of our association – a commitment to pursuing a sovereign and independent policy and, at the same time, a desire to seek collective solutions to problems together with other countries – are shared by many in the world.”

• “It is obvious to everyone that the SCO today is one of the largest and most authoritative regional organizations. As our Chairman has already said, its member states are home to almost half of the world’s population, create about a quarter of the world’s gross domestic product, concentrate a powerful intellectual and technological potential, and a significant part of the world’s natural resources”.

• “The world is becoming truly multipolar. And more and more states are ready to defend their legitimate rights and interests in the most resolute manner. New centers of power are emerging, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is emerging as one of them”.

• “Russia, as we know, has never refused and is now ready to continue peace talks. It is Ukraine that has abandoned the negotiations, and it has done so publicly and on direct orders from London and, there is no doubt about it, from Washington as well, as Ukrainian officials have said directly and openly”.

• “The Istanbul agreements – thanks for this to the President of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan, who took part in this work as a mediator – have not gone anywhere, they were initialed by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, which means that, apparently, they were quite satisfactory to Ukraine. These agreements, the Istanbul agreements, remain on the table and can be used as a basis for the continuation of these negotiations”.

Also, following his visit to Astana, Vladimir Putin held a traditional press conference, during which he once again voiced a number of theses on geopolitical issues.

Key Abstracts:

• “The SCO is a useful organization. Let me remind you that it was created for the final settlement of all issues after the collapse of the Soviet Union, border issues with the People’s Republic of China, which remained unresolved in Soviet times between the new sovereign states and China. And gradually this organization began to gain momentum, and in today’s world it has certainly become very much in demand, because it is obviously one of the independent centers of the new multipolar world. And this is what has become attractive for the participants of the organization and for those who would like to maintain constant contacts with this organization at various levels – both as guests and as observers. As you can see, the desire to join the organization is growing. It has become really powerful, in fact, of a global nature – almost half of the world’s population is represented by the countries that are members of this organization”.

• “First, as far as Ukraine is concerned. It is possible to address the Rada, of course, but in the conditions of usurpation of power by the ruling top brass in Ukraine, it is pointless. Because the majority of the Rada is subordinate to this so-called ruling elite, which I said. Because it is illegally in power and does not even apply to the constitutional court for confirmation of its powers. Because, as I said, in 2015, the Supreme Court of Ukraine has already decided that the term of presidency in Ukraine is limited to five years, and there is no reason to extend presidential powers in accordance with the constitution of Ukraine. All powers should go to the Rada, but it does not assume these powers. Therefore, it is possible to appeal, of course, but based on the practical situation, based on what is happening in real life, it is more or less pointless”.

• “As for the Union State: it is developing, we remember all the goals and objectives that were set in the original documents. We are, in fact, following this path”.

• “When our troops were standing near Kiev, we received an offer and even an insistent request from our Western partners to cease fire, to cease hostilities in order for certain things to be done on the Ukrainian side. And we did that. There was such an episode, we did it. The Ukrainian side did not cease hostilities. And then we were told that the Ukrainian official authorities cannot control all their armed formations because there are supposedly some that do not obey the central authorities. This is what we were told, I have not added or subtracted anything here”.

• “We were asked to withdraw our troops from Kyiv in order to create conditions for the final conclusion of a peace agreement. We did this and again faced deception: all the agreements reached in Istanbul were thrown into the trash. This has happened repeatedly. That is why we simply cannot just declare a ceasefire now in the hope that the other side will take some positive steps. This is the first thing.”

• “We cannot allow that after the ceasefire the enemy will use this ceasefire to improve its situation, to arm itself, to complete its army through forced mobilization and to be ready to continue the armed conflict. We need to ensure that the opposing side agrees to take steps that are irreversible and acceptable to the Russian Federation”.

• “We have always been in favor of negotiations, you know it well, we have never given up on them. The only question is that it seems to me unlikely that the conflict will be finally ended with the help of mediators and only through them. First of all, because it is unlikely that a mediator will be authorized to sign final documents. And what is more, not even to sign final documents, but to bring even final documents to signing. The fundamental issue here is not only the competence of these mediators, but also their authority. Who can authorize a mediator in such a way that could put a final end to this confrontation? I believe that this is unlikely.

• “As far as deployment is concerned, – if you remember, if not, I will remind you – I said that we declare a moratorium on the possible future deployment of our respective systems until these missile systems appear in some region of the world. If U.S.-made medium-range and shorter-range missiles appear somewhere, then we reserve the right to act in a mirror-like manner. Everything remains as we said it would.

Totals/Predictions:

For Putin (as well as for Xi Jinping) it is important to show the effectiveness of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as the main instrument of influence on the Eurasian continent. For Putin, the ideal is to turn the SCO into a kind of counterweight to NATO. However, most members of the organization are not ready for this. The inclusion of Belarus in the SCO is a great success for Putin, but for Lukashenko it is primarily new opportunities for political maneuvering. At least, Lukashenko felt more free from his earlier commitments, which can be felt in the personnel reshuffle in Belarus on the eve of the SCO summit. 

It is also important that at the Astana summit, China and India agreed to begin the process of normalizing relations on border delimitation issues. It is quite possible that during the summit a number of issues related to the war in Ukraine were also discussed, as not all SCO members support Russia in its desire to continue escalation. But obviously, we will see the main consequences of the summit in the near future – in terms of specific events.

Totals/Predictions:

3. Talks between Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban

On Friday, July 5, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Moscow on a working visit and held a meeting with Vladimir Putin. The Hungarian delegation also included Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and advisers to the prime minister. From the Russian side, the meeting is attended by Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. As is known, earlier this week Viktor Orbán also visited Ukraine, where he held a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “I understand that this time you have come not only as our long-standing partner, but also as President of the Council of the European Union. I hope we will have an opportunity to exchange views on building bilateral relations in this difficult situation and, of course, to talk about the prospects for the development of the biggest European crisis, I mean in the Ukrainian direction.

• Putin: “I know that very recently, I think on July 2, you were in Kiev and have come here to discuss all the nuances of the situation that has developed on the Kiev direction, on the Ukrainian direction. I am at your disposal.

• Putin: “You are probably aware of my speech to the Foreign Ministry leadership recently in Moscow. It outlined our positions on a possible peaceful settlement. And of course, I am ready to discuss this with you, to talk about some of the nuances. I trust that you will also familiarize me with your position and that of your European partners.

• Orban: “As you mentioned, Hungary has held the rotating presidency of the EU Council since July 1. Before our last meeting, this was even before the war, this was in February 2022. This is exactly what distinguishes these two meetings between us.”

• Orbán: “I am very grateful to you that even under such difficult circumstances you have agreed to receive me. I have to tell you that the number of countries that can talk to both sides of the conflict is rapidly decreasing. Soon Hungary will probably be the only country in Europe that will be able to talk to everyone. I would like to use this opportunity to discuss a number of important issues with you. I would also like to know your position on a number of important issues for Europe.

The leaders of Hungary and Russia also held a joint press conference following the talks, during which they voiced a broader vision on a number of issues. As in the case of the visit to Ukraine, the main goal of the talks was to discuss peace initiatives and cessation of hostilities.

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “I note that Russia and Hungary continue to cooperate in a number of areas, primarily in the energy sector. The key principles are healthy pragmatism and mutual benefit.

• Putin: “Work continues on the flagship joint expansion project of the Paks nuclear power plant. The commissioning of the fifth and sixth units will more than double the capacity of this plant. This will improve the energy supply of the Hungarian economy, supplying industrial enterprises and households with inexpensive and clean energy. Only the most advanced engineering and technological solutions are used in the construction of the new units, physical safety and environmental requirements are fully ensured”.

• Putin: “Undoubtedly, there was a fairly thorough, direct and honest exchange of views on topical international issues, including the Ukrainian conflict. We also talked about possible ways of resolving it.

• Putin: “As far as Russia is concerned, I have repeatedly said that we have always been and remain open to discussing a political and diplomatic settlement. However, on the opposing side we hear of an unwillingness to resolve the issue in this way. And Ukraine’s sponsors continue to try to use this country and its people as a battering ram, a victim in the confrontation with Russia.”

• Putin: “As we see the state of affairs, including in the light of what we heard today from Mr. Prime Minister, Kiev is still not ready to give up the idea of waging ‘war to the victorious end’.”

• Putin: “In my opinion, the Kiev regime does not allow the very idea of a cessation of hostilities because in this case the pretext for extending martial law disappears. And if the martial law has to be lifted, it means that the elections, which were not held on time, will have to be held. But the chances of the Ukrainian rulers, who have lost their ratings and legitimacy, to win them are close to zero.

• Putin: “And our peace initiative was outlined quite recently at my meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Its realization, as we believe, would make it possible to stop hostilities and start negotiations. And this should not just be a truce or a temporary ceasefire, not some kind of pause that the Kiev regime could use to recover its losses, regroup and rearm. Russia is in favor of a full and final end to the conflict. The conditions for that, as I said, were set out in my speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We are talking about the complete withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops from the [self-proclaimed] “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics” and from the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. There are other conditions. But this is a subject for fairly detailed consideration in the course of possible joint work”.

• Orbán: “Today I met with the President of Russia for the 11th time. The peculiarity of this meeting is that it is being held at a time of war, at a time when Europe badly needs peace. For Europe, peace is the most important thing. We consider the fight for peace to be the main task of our European Presidency for the next six months.

• Orbán: “I told Mr. President that the greatest development of Europe happened precisely in the decades of peace. Now we in Europe have been living in the shadow of war for two and a half years. This is causing enormous difficulties in Europe. We cannot feel safe, we see pictures of destruction and suffering. This war has already started to affect economic growth and our competitiveness.”

• Orban: “In general, as I told Mr. President, Europe needs peace. Over the last two and a half years, we have realized that without diplomacy, without communication channels, we will not achieve peace. Peace will not come by itself, we have to work for it.

• Orbán: “I was discussing with Mr. President today just how to achieve peace. I wanted to know what is the shortest way to end the war. I wanted to hear and I heard Mr. President’s opinion on three important issues: what he thinks about the current peace initiatives, what he thinks also about the ceasefire and peace talks, in what sequence they can be conducted, and the third thing I was interested in was the vision of Europe after the war. I am grateful to Mr. President for an open and honest conversation”.

Totals/Predictions:

Viktor Orbán’s arrival in Moscow immediately after his visit to Ukraine is symbolic: Orbán, as the leader of the EU presidency, decided to try his hand at mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Orban uses his unofficial status as “Trump’s personal friend,” which is quite a powerful argument in the current situation of uncertainty in the U.S. Democratic camp. 

Following talks with Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, Orban said the sides were far from resolving the conflict and predicted a severe escalation of hostilities in the coming months. According to some reports, Orban was frustrated that Putin is unwilling to hear about compromises and speaks the language of ultimatums. The same situation was observed with the Ukrainian president, who refused to discuss a ceasefire. With Orban’s next visits to China and the United States, he intends to step up his diplomatic activity and make serious progress toward peace in Ukraine.