This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.
Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:
- The summer vacation season has officially begun in Russia, which is especially noticeable in the absence of important events and announcements. After a meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Putin went to Sochi, where he will spend his vacation. Several officials also arrived there anticipating a meeting with the president and possible appointments to high positions. According to unconfirmed information, the personnel issue with Alexei Dyumin should be resolved in Sochi soon, as well as a meeting with General Sergei Surovikin.
- Russia pays great attention to the lunar program to show that even under sanctions, it can implement large technological projects. The launch of the Luna-25 station for Russia is primarily a propaganda move: they try to strangle us, but we make a breakthrough and divide into space. Thus, it is instead a signal to the world community: to the allies – we are more vital than ever; to the enemies – we are developing, despite the sanctions.
- Recently, a whole campaign has been observed in the Russian Federation to destroy telegram channels independent of the Kremlin, which, according to the authorities, discredit the RF Armed Forces. In addition, it is through telegram channels that emigrant centres (opposition) operate, trying to convey their position to citizens. The authorities need to take total control of information flows – with an eye on the war and the approaching presidential elections. With this, the activation of the Security Council of the Russian Federation in resolving domestic political issues can be associated.
This digest examines the following issues that were most relevant for Russia during 07–13 of August:
1. Putin’s meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council;
2. Launch of the “Luna-25” space station;
3. Signing of a draft law on amending the articles “On the state of emergency” and “On martial law” by Putin;
4. Sergei Shoigu’s trip to Novaya Zemlya;
5. Telephone conversation of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China Wang Yi.
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- Putin’s meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council;
On Friday, August 11, Vladimir Putin held a meeting via videoconference with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council. Its primary topic was the issue of ensuring information security for the Russian Federation in modern conditions. The meeting was attended by Chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko, Speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Chief of Staff Anton Vaino, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, Minister of the Interior Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov and Special Representative President for Environmental Protection, Ecology and Transport Sergey Ivanov.
Outcomes and outlook:
The issue of “information security” in a war is usually understood as a system for introducing censorship and taking control of the media – primarily Telegram channels, which are the most effective means of delivering alternative information. Recently, a whole campaign has been observed in the Russian Federation to destroy telegram channels independent of the Kremlin, which, according to the authorities, discredit the Russian Armed Forces. In addition, it is through telegram channels that emigrant centres (opposition) operate, trying to convey their position to citizens. The authorities need to take total control of information flows – with an eye on the war and the approaching presidential elections.
It is also important to note that a week earlier, Putin held a meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council, the main topic of which was the internal security of Russia. In fact, we are witnessing a deepening in the internal political processes in the country, the main purpose of which is an attempt to neutralise internal threats against the backdrop of global challenges.
- Launch of the “Luna-25” space station
On Friday, August 11, the automatic interplanetary station Luna-25 was launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome. Its goal is to reach the South Pole of the Moon and conduct a series of studies on that part of the Earth’s satellite that is the least explored. The launch of this station was the first attempt in the modern history of Russia to conduct scientific research on the Moon. The station is on its way to the Moon and plans to reach the target on August 21. Even though the launch of the Luna-25 station was the first in the last 47 years, Yury Borisov, Director General of Roscosmos, said that the Luna-26 and Luna-27 projects will continue the lunar program after Luna-25 and Luna-28, the implementation of which is planned for the next 6 years.
Outcomes and outlook:
Russia pays great attention to the lunar program to show that even under sanctions, it can implement large technological projects. This is primarily a propaganda move for Russia: they are trying to strangle us, but we are making a breakthrough and dividing into space. Thus, it is a signal to the world community: to the allies – we are stronger than ever; to the enemies – we are developing, despite the sanctions.
In fact, Russia is trying to make up for all its failures, including in the so-called SMO, by demonstrating its space ambitions and capabilities. At the same time, it is very indicative that even the information support for the launch of the Luna-25 station was very low.
- Signing of a draft law on amending the articles “On the state of emergency” and “On martial law” by Putin
On Wednesday, August 9, Vladimir Putin files to the State Duma a draft law he signed regarding amendments to Article 37 of the Federal Law “On the State of Emergency” and Article 22 of the Federal Law “On Martial Law”. The proposed amendments relate to the abolition of the rule according to which Russia undertakes to notify the Council of Europe of the introduction/lifting of martial law in Russia or its individual subjects. At the same time, the final text of the draft law may be amended at the stage of its consideration by the State Duma.
It is noteworthy that on August 8, Vladimir Putin signed a decree appointing Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Grushko as the president’s representative during the consideration by the chambers of the Federal Assembly of the draft federal constitutional law “On Amendments to Article 37 of the Federal Constitutional Law “On the State of Emergency” and Article 22 of the Federal Constitutional Law “On Martial Law”.
Outcomes and outlook:
The laws are more of a ritual nature – Russia wants to show that it is completely dissociating itself from the Council of Europe and its earlier commitments. This may be followed by other bills that will lead to a confrontation with the CE, such as restoring the death penalty. Moreover, as evidenced by sociological data, this is supported by the majority of Russians.
At the same time, it is important to pay attention to the Kremlin’s general trend towards the global abolition of the legislative framework relating to legal relations with international structures. This trend is part of Russia’s general concept of the so-called turn towards Asia, which has been defiantly carried out recently. Also, no less defiantly, they try to cover precisely those aspects of military affairs, strategic security and nuclear weapons. Such a tool is used as an element of intimidation and escalation.
- Sergei Shoigu’s trip to Novaya Zemlya
On Saturday, August 12, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the test site on the island of Novaya Zemlya, where 132 tests of atmospheric, underground, underwater, surface, and ground explosions of nuclear weapons were carried out between 1954 and 1990. Together with Shoigu, the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev visited Novaya Zemlya. During the visit, a helicopter overflight of the test site ,and a visit to the Arctic garrisons of the Northern Fleet were made. Also, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation noted that “currently, the main tasks of the test site on Novaya Zemlya, are the preparation and testing of promising models of weapons and military equipment.”
Outcomes and outlook:
Shoigu’s visit to Novaya Zemlya can be regarded as an indicator of a truce between the Minister of Defense himself and the Kovalchuk-Kiriyenko group that was previously in confrontation with him. The Kovalchuks and Kiriyenkos believed they were in complete control of the nuclear issue in Russia, and they were very jealous of any attempts by the military to get into this area without their knowledge. The fact that Shoigu appeared on Novaya Zemlya (primarily a Russian nuclear test site) accompanied by Likhachev (Kiriyenko’s man) is significant. Russia may conduct a new nuclear weapons test shortly, which will be an element of new pressure on world public opinion.
- Telephone conversation of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China Wang Yi
On Monday, August 7, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov had a telephone conversation with Wang Yi, a Politburo of the CPC Central Committee member and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PRC of the Republic of China.
The official press release notes that the parties highly appreciated the progressive development of Russian-Chinese relations, which demonstrate stability and positive dynamics in the context of general geopolitical instability on the planet. Particular attention was paid to the bilateral agenda for implementing the agreements reached at the highest political level. During the conversation, a general rejection of the aggressive policy of the Western bloc towards Russia and China and attempts to restrain their development through sanctions and other illegitimate methods were noted. A positive assessment was given to the constructive dialogue and the high level of interaction between Moscow and Beijing within the framework of the UN, BRICS, SCO, the G20 and other international structures. It is also noted that several “hot” regional topics were touched upon, including Ukraine.
Outcomes and outlook:
The conversation between Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi is the first conversation since the return of the Chinese foreign minister to his post. First of all, this is a “synchronisation of watches” before the BRICS summit, as well as a discussion of the new reality that has emerged recently (events in Africa, Russia’s withdrawal from the “grain deal”, etc.).
It is important to note that the conversation occurred immediately after the global meeting organised by Ukraine in Saudi Arabia. Earlier, China agreed to participate in the event, to which Russia was not invited. In fact, Wang Yi’s call can demonstrate the Chinese side’s commitment to the previously agreed plan to develop a common strategy with Russia. It is vital that this conversation took place against the backdrop of rumours about the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Beijing. In early September, a telephone conversation between Xi Jinping and Putin is expected, which must also demonstrate the absence of conflicts.
At the same time, Moscow and Beijing still have many questions, which each party will try in every possible way to replay the situation in its favour. First, we can talk about further strengthening positions on the African continent, where both states are in the position of competitors.
