Russia: Weekly Report (26.06 – 02.07)

1. The consequences of the “Justice March”

Even though the attempted rebellion by the Wagner PMC was stopped last Saturday (June 23), its consequences actively influenced the political processes in Russia throughout the week. Moreover, it can be stated with certainty that as of the end of the week, all the results of high-profile events related to the so-called “justice march” led by Yevgeny Prigozhin had not yet been demonstrated.

At the same time, to conduct a deeper analysis and determine possible trends for the near future, it is worth tracing a specific chronology of the main events, demonstrating both the moods and intentions of the Russian political leadership.

Timeline:

• On Monday, June 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported Sergei Shoigu’s visit to the command post of the “Western” group of troops in the combat zone. This was the first public appearance of Shoigu since the recent rebellion.

• The regime of the counter-terrorist operation was cancelled in Moscow, the Moscow and Voronezh regions.

• A video appeared on the web with a comment by Yevgeny Prigozhin during his departure from Rostov. When asked by a journalist about the results of the “Justice March,” Prigozhin replied: “It’s fine. Everyone was cheered up.”

• Oppositional Belarusian media reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin was seen at the Green Hotel City in Minsk.

• PMC Wagner centres resumed their work on accepting applications in several Russian cities.

• Sergei Lavrov said that Russian intelligence services are investigating the possible involvement of Western intelligence agencies in organising the Prigozhin rebellion.

• Russian opposition publications stated that camps had begun to be built in Belarus to accommodate “Wagnerites “. According to them, the first camp, designed for 8 thousand fighters, is being constructed in Osipovichi, Mogilev region (200 km from the border with Ukraine). Sometime later, this information was refuted by the Belarusian opposition media.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Prigozhin’s rebellion “demonstrated the fragility of the German regime.” Still, after a surprised remark by the German defence minister who was nearby, he quickly corrected himself and clarified what he meant by Russia.

• Late on June 26, Yevgeny Prigozhin published his first commentary. In it, the curator of the PMC “Wagner” repeated the version of the alleged strike on the rear camp of the PMC. He boasted that he had travelled a greater distance during the rebellion than the Russian army had since February 24, 2022. Again he repeated his accusations against the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. He said he agreed with Lukashenka’s proposal to leave for Belarus so that “blood would not be shed.”

• Former Putin aide Vladislav Surkov urged the Kremlin to abandon PMCs in the Russian Federation. In his opinion, such campaigns did not correspond to the political, administrative and military culture of Russia and arose “only during the Time of Troubles and the Civil War”: “If the law on PMCs is adopted, then no matter how good and thoughtful it is, no matter how clearly prescribed that PMCs are subordinate to the army command, are part of the army, and so on, such a law will still create a dangerous prospect of turning our country into some kind of Eurasian “tribal zone” in the future. We don’t need this.”

• On Monday evening, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov announced the Russian president’s address. There was also information that Alexander Lukashenko should speak in parallel with him. Putin’s appeal itself turned out to be very concise. In it, he hinted that Wagner PMC would not exist in its former form. Those who want to continue fighting must conclude a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. For the rest, there is an option of either being retired, or to go to Belarus. He also called the organisers of the rebellion traitors to the motherland and thanked the security forces for their quick and well-coordinated work. At the same time, Lukashenka’s address was postponed to the next day.

• After his address, Putin met with law enforcement agency representatives. The meeting was attended by Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Igor Krasnov, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, FSB director Alexander Bortnikov, head of the National Guard Viktor Zolotov, FSO director Dmitry Kochnev, head of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin, and head of the Kremlin administration Anton Vaino.

• CNN, citing its own sources, said that the United States and Western allies called Kyiv on the day of Prigozhin’s rebellion and asked them to refrain from strikes on Russia: “The fear was that Ukraine and the West would be seen as helping Prigozhin and threatening Russia’s sovereignty”.

• On Tuesday, June 27, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced preparations had begun for Wagner to transfer its heavy military equipment to the Russian army.

• The FSB said that the case of the rebellion between Prigozhin and Wagner had already been closed.

• Later, Putin made another statement. This time it was addressed to the heads of law enforcement agencies. In particular, he stated that they “virtually stopped the civil war.” At the same time, he said removing the combat units involved in Ukraine was unnecessary. Putin also said, “The people, the army, the people were not with the rebels.”

• Following Outin, the Head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, spoke in the Kremlin. He explained the rapid advance of the Wagner PMC in the direction of Moscow by “concentration of forces in the capital.” At the same time, he believes that the PMC would not be able to take the Russian capital. Zolotov also said that the rebellion was inspired by the West and “superimposed on Prigozhin’s ambitions.”

• Lukashenka said that Wagner PMC could start training or, at least, advising the Belarusian army: “If their commanders come to us and help us… Experience. Look, they’re on the front line, the assault squads. Tell us what’s important right now. They went through it. They will tell you about weapons: which worked well and which did not. And tactics, weapons, and how to attack and defend. It’s priceless. This is what we need to take from the Wagnerites.”

• Putin stated that PMC “Wagner” was fully funded from the budget of the Russian Federation. According to him, the PMC received more than 86 billion rubles from the state over the past year. In addition, Prigozhin’s company Concord received orders for food for the army for 80 billion rubles.

• Lukashenka confirmed that Prigozhin is already in Belarus: “Security guarantees, as Putin promised, have been provided. I see that Prigogine is already flying on this plane. Yes, indeed, he is in Belarus today. As promised, if you want to change corners with us for a while, we will help you. Naturally, at their expense.

• On Wednesday, June 28, information began to appear about the detention of General Sergei Surovikin, who allegedly knew about preparing for Prigozhin’s rebellion and even assisted him (Ascolta analyses this topic in a separate section).

• The adviser to the president of the Central African Republic said that the authorities of the Central African Republic are ready to accept any other Russian PMC if Wagner leaves: “If Moscow decides to withdraw them and send us Beethovens or Mozarts, and not Wagnerians, we will have them”.

• Toward evening, information appeared that Yevgeny Prigozhin was seen in his office on Vasilyevsky Island in St. Petersburg.

• On Thursday, June 29, The New York Times, citing its own sources, said that at the closed part of the meeting with media representatives, Putin said he was engaged in the economic component of cooperation between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry. The Russian president allegedly said he was looking into Prigozhin’s business contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.

• The Bell magazine reported that negotiations are already underway in Russia to sell Prigozhin’s media-holding Patriot. This holding includes the “troll factory”, the agencies “FAN”, “Economy Today”, “Politics Today”, “Nevsky News”, “People’s News”, and other publications.

• Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, said that Prigozhin refused to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry, after which he was told that it would be finished state funding of “Wagner” and PMCs would be removed from participation in the war against Ukraine.

• The New York Times has published new satellite images of a possible military base of PMC Wagner in Belarus near Osipovichi (Mogilev region).

• On Friday, June 30, several Russian sources said that Yevgeny Prigozhin had dissolved his Patriot media holding, which included some media outlets and a “troll factory”.

• The Wall Street Journal stated that hours after the Wagner rebellion began, CIA chief Bill Burns spoke with SVR director Sergei Naryshkin to convey that the United States was not involved.

• On Saturday, July 1, the commander of the joint forces, Lieutenant-General Sergei Naev, said that at present, the movement of Wagner PMC fighters to the territory of Belarus is not recorded: “Currently, as of today, not a single unit of the Wagner PMC not observed on the territory of Belarus. But we are aware of further developments in the situation, and our intelligence agencies are working to obtain information about this. If this happens, the military command will know about it.”

• On Sunday, July 2, Russian propagandist Dmitry Kiselev, on the air of Russia 1, stated that: “PMC Wagner, under contracts concluded with the state, received more than 858 billion rubles. It’s nearly a trillion. And in other contracts, Prigozhin’s Concord Holding provided services worth 845 billion rubles.”

Outcomes and outlook:

As Ascolta wrote earlier, the consequences of the “Prigozhin rebellion” have a delayed effect. Predictions about the imminent change of the military leadership of Russia, made by many analysts, did not come true. Putin has once again demonstrated that he does not give in to ultimatums and does not plan to make impulsive decisions.

The main outcome of the events associated with the “Prigozhin rebellion” was that Putin showed that his word was above the law. The Prosecutor General’s Office opened a criminal case against Prigozhin. Still, Putin, by his decision, actually cancelled the actions of the Prosecutor General’s Office. This is also a signal to the world: any legislative norms in Russia (including constitutional ones) are not a problem but a matter of agreement personally with Putin. Thus, he makes it clear that in the future, even the option of excluding from the Constitution the mention of certain “new territories” within the Russian Federation can be considered if the West is inclined to constructive negotiations.

The quintessence was the words of Margarita Simonyan, who said: “If the president is faced with the choice of “bad” or “terrible”, then he has the right to act not according to the law but at his own discretion, and the law in such situations should not become an obstacle.”

More than a week after the mutiny itself, the theory of a Kremlin-planned and controlled mutiny, the main goal of which was to reform the system of Putin’s inner circle, is gaining ground.

Contrary to the statements of many analysts and experts about the weakening of Putin’s positions, we are pushed to comment: as a result of the rebellion, he strengthened his positions, and if even in mid-June, it was possible to hypothetically assume the possibility of a palace coup in Russia, then the “Prigozhin rebellion” became an action to preempt and open possible mechanisms of a hypothetical upheaval. Putin has secured himself as much as possible, and shortly, we should expect high-profile resignations and personnel changes in the power structure in Russia.

It is noteworthy that after the Prigozhin rebellion, the position of the conditional “war party”, which advocated the need to continue hostilities, almost completely disappeared from the information space. Just as Putin’s regular comments on the course of the Ukrainian counter-offensive with the constant voicing of colossal losses ceased.

In these circumstances, it can be assumed that against the background of the active phase of the informal negotiation process between Moscow and Washington, Putin is making a promise about his readiness to sit down at the negotiating table and determine the conditions for a new global stability. In this case, it is essential to note that we are not talking about negotiations around Ukraine. Global stability is determined by many factors that depend on the search for compromises and concessions from all sides.

At the same time, preparations for the continuation of the escalation are also becoming noticeable. Apparently, if agreements are not reached, Russia is ready to increase its pressure, including on Ukraine. The factor of setting up PMC Wagner camps on the territory of Belarus and the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons there are currently only elements of intimidation. Still, it is possible that in the future, this tool may pose a more fundamental threat.

In any case, we can assume that the second half of the summer (after the NATO summit in Vilnius) will be decisive in many respects. First of all, we are talking about strategic stability at the global level.

2. Putin’s meeting with the heads of law enforcement agencies and a speech for the units of the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSO

On Monday, June 26, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the participation of the heads of law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation, during which the results of the failed rebellion of PMC Wagner and Yevgeny Prigozhin were summed up. The meeting was attended by Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, Head of the Presidential Administration Anton Vaino, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, Minister of the Interior Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Federal Service of the National Guard Troops Viktor Zolotov, Director of the Federal security services Dmitry Kochnev and Chairman of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin. The meeting was held behind closed doors.

The very next day, Putin spoke to the personnel of the units of the Ministry of Defense, the Federal Service of National Guard Troops, the Federal Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Federal Security Service. In his address, the Russian president thanked the units for their prompt response and for ensuring law and order during the mutiny.

Key statements:

• “You defended the constitutional order, life, security and freedom of our citizens, saved our Motherland from upheavals, and actually stopped the civil war.”

• “Units of the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard, employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and special services ensured the reliable operation of the most important control centres, strategic, including defence, facilities, the security of border regions, the strength of the rear of our Armed Forces, all military formations that continued at that time to heroically fight on the front. We didn’t have to withdraw combat units from the [so-called] “Northern Military District” zone.”

• “Your determination and courage, as well as the consolidation of Russian society, played a huge, decisive role in stabilising the situation. The people drawn into the rebellion saw that the army and the people were not with them.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Putin’s speech was of a ritual nature. It was more of a gesture of gratitude to law enforcement officers who devoted themselves to the president. In this situation, Putin needed a “picture” for television that would demonstrate to the people that Putin is stronger than ever, that he is supported by the security forces, and that any rebellion or coup attempt has no prospects. It is also a signal to the West: we know about your plans, but we are ready to repel any attempts at rebellion.

Now, it can be stated that one of the results of Prigozhin’s rebellion was a significant reformatting of the system of law enforcement agencies. Moreover, it is important to note that the rebellion was not the reason but the logical conclusion of such reforms.

Earlier, Ascolta repeatedly drew attention to the introduction of several changes and the signing by Putin of some decrees that significantly strengthened the position of the FSB, the National Guard, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSO. In fact, now we have seen only a public statement of such amplifications.

It is important to note that throughout his time in power, Putin was afraid of a military coup. As a witness and direct participant in the events associated with General Rokhlin, Putin has always tried to build a complex system of relations in the military environment, levelling the ambitions of individual players. Based on this theory, it can be assumed that one of the goals of Prigozhin’s rebellion was to suppress a possible military coup, which the Russian special services learned about.

At the same time, it is essential to consider that Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov remain in their positions and, apparently, retain Putin’s trust. At the same time, the positions of the conditional “young generation” in the military are significantly reduced.

The fate of General Surovikin, recently nominated by many for senior positions in the Ministry of Defense, remains unspecified. Also, there is a partial reformatting of Russian groups’ actions on Ukraine’s territory.

In general, it can be stated that Putin continues to build an authoritarian state, relying entirely on power structures. The strengthening of the FSB, the National Guard and the FSO demonstrates that in Russia, the risk of internal shocks is significantly increasing, the factor of which has been partially levelled.

3. Putin’s visit to Dagestan

On Wednesday, June 28, Vladimir Putin paid a working visit to Derbent (Dagestan), where he participated in several events and met with the head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov.

Timeline:

• Putin visited the Naryn-Kala Citadel architectural and archaeological complex and the Derbent Juma Mosque, which are federal monuments and UNESCO World Heritage Sites.

• Via video, Putin held a meeting on tourism development, which was attended by the presidential representative in the North Caucasus Federal District, Yuri Chaika, the head of the Republic of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov and a Senator from the Republic of Dagestan Suleiman Kerimov, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Transport Vitaly Savelyev and others.

Key theses:

• Vladimir Putin: “We are in Dagestan, in one of the most ancient cities – which means “in one of” – in the most ancient city of Russia [Derbent]. Quite recently, the 2000th anniversary was celebrated. Still, in fact, of course, this is confirmed by archaeological excavations, which were carried out in Soviet times, in my opinion, since 1971; in fact, the first settlements appeared here five thousand years ago. Here is the oldest mosque in Russia; we were here today too.”

• Vladimir Putin: Many important decisions have already been made. Among the most significant, I would like to note concessional lending for the construction of hotels: only within the framework of this support measure, 87 new facilities with 25,000 rooms are being built.”

• Putin: “Another big, significant, auspicious task is large-scale projects to create year-round sea resorts designed to receive at least 10 million people yearly.”

• Vladimir Putin: Citizens of other countries also choose our resorts. All formalities should be as convenient as possible for them; we are interested in this: it is not only for them but for us, for the development of the tourism industry.”

• Reshetnikov: “Beach tourism has a great untapped potential. Jointly with Dagestan, we have developed the concept of the Caspian coastal cluster, and our colleagues presented it to you.”

• Reshetnikov: “Another promising area is gastro tourism, including everything related to viticulture. An important decision was made on a tax deduction whereby businesses that process grapes and produce spirits pay less excise duty, provided they reinvest in the industry.”

• Reshetnikov: “We anticipate that from July 1, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will launch electronic visas, including tourists from Iran and other Islamic countries, from Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. The cost of visas mustn’t increase.”

• Savelyev: “According to the results of 2022, the standard state of roads in the federal district is 72 per cent on federal highways, 65 per cent on regional roads, and 57 per cent on the local road network. The backbone network of highways of the federal district is more than 5,600 kilometres, of which we will bring 73 per cent into the standard by the end of the year.”

• Savelyev: “Aviation infrastructure. We are actively developing it. In December 2020, as already noted, the apron reconstruction for eight places in the parking lot for aircraft was completed at the airfield complex of Mineralnye Vody Airport.”

• Melikov: “In recent years, there has been a steady growth in the tourist flow in the Republic of Dagestan. Over the past year, the flow of tourists to the republic amounted to more than 1.5 million people, 44 per cent more than in 2021.”

• Kerimov: “In general, the most important thing that we have achieved today both in Derbent and Dagestan is that people have become kinder, more hospitable, they are happy, that is, there is real happiness on people’s faces. If earlier in Derbent street lights did not work and people did not go out when it gets dark, today, on the contrary, this is the time … tourists who come to the city.

• After the meeting on tourism, Putin held a working meeting with the head of the Republic of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, during which the situation in the region was discussed.

• At the end of all the planned events, Putin met and talked with local residents. The video, actively circulating on the Internet, has a frame in which the Russian president hugs the residents of Derbent and kisses a girl.

Outcomes and outlook:

This trip opens a series of Putin’s election tours. Dagestan is one of the most inconsistent and disadvantaged republics within the Russian Federation. That is why Putin decided to show he is ready to travel to “parquet” events (for example, in St. Petersburg) and the most difficult regions.

In addition, a trip to Dagestan signals to the entire Caucasus that the central authorities remember the region and do not hand it over to the head of Chechnya, Kadyrov (with whom the Dagestan elites have complicated relations). Interestingly, Putin’s visit to Dagestan coincided with a wave of informational stuffing about Kadyrov’s allegedly fatal illness, some of which were also distributed through a network of telegram channels controlled by the central authorities. Many saw this as a severe message to Kadyrov about reducing his political appetites. At the same time, it is essential to note that Putin’s meeting with Kadyrov took place in the Kremlin on the eve of his visit to Dagestan.

Less important is that Putin’s visit to Derbent coincided with the beginning of one of the main Muslim holidays, Eid al-Adha. It is important to consider that at the end of May, the Russian president took several complementary steps towards Patriarch Kirill, including handing over Rublev’s Trinity icon to the Russian Orthodox Church. Now he is defiantly playing on another, no less important electoral field, trying to increase his ratings in the Islamic world.

4. “Detention” for Surovikin

On Wednesday, June 28, active rumours began to spread about the detention of General Sergei Surovikin, commander of the combined group of Russian troops in Ukraine. He was accused of aiding Prigozhin in preparing for a rebellion in Russia. This information was confirmed by several Western media. In Russia, such rumours were denied. At the same time, as of July 2, no reliable information about Surovikin had been provided.

Timeline:

• On June 28, several sources announced Sergei Surovikin’s arrest and placement in the Lefortovo detention centre.

• The New York Times claimed that Surovikin knew of Prigozhin’s plans to stage a mutiny.

• Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov denied The New York Times’ statement: “Now there will be a lot of various speculations, gossip and so on around these events. I think this is one of those examples.”

• Information began to spread massively in the Ukrainian media that, together with Surovikin, his deputy, Colonel-General Andrei Yudin, was detained.

• Sometime later, Andrei Yudin denied his arrest in a commentary to the Russian media. He stated that he was on vacation, but Surovikin did not know where he was.”

• Russian Journalist Aleksey Venediktov said that Surovikin and his family did not get in touch for three days: “Army General Surovikin has not been in contact with his family for three days. His guards are not responding either. I have only such facts.”

• Already on June 29, Venediktov announced that Surovikin was not in prison, and his deputy Andrei Yudin would be dismissed immediately after his vacation. He later added that Yudin had already been fired.

• Edition Financial The Times, citing its sources, stated that Surovikin is now being “under pressure” because of his friendship with Prigozhin.

• Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov did not directly answer the question of journalists about the whereabouts of Surovikin: “I recommend that you contact the Ministry of Defense. This is the prerogative of the ministry. Here we are talking about the fact that he (Putin) is the supreme commander-in-chief, and he works with the minister of defence, with the chief of the General Staff. As for the structural divisions within the ministry, I ask you to contact the ministry.”

• Edition Financial The Times, citing three sources, said General Surovikin had been detained.

• One of the Russian Telegram channels, referring to communication with Surovikin’s daughter, stated that no one had arrested the general and everything was fine with him. According to his daughter, “everyone is at their jobs.”

• Bloomberg also announced the detention of General Surovikin. According to the publication’s sources, the military prosecutor’s office interrogated him for several days. Also, in the material of the publication, it is noted that Surovikin is in “one place” but not in prison.

• Aleksey Melnikov, executive secretary of the Public Monitoring Commission of the PMC of Moscow, said that General Sergei Surovikin was not kept in any of the pre-trial detention centres in Russia: “They ask: “Is it true that Surovikin is in a pre-trial detention centre? I answer: neither in Lefortovo nor in other pre-trial detention centres. I don’t want to comment on the nonsense about the “underground pre-trial detention centre in Serebryany Bor.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Considering the enormous authority of General Surovikin in the army and Russian society, it is not so easy to neutralise him. Moreover, there is practically no one to replace him.

Most likely, now we are talking about the temporary neutralisation of Surovikin and about reshuffles in the army, which could lead to the neutralisation of the “Surovikin factor”. Apparently, some formal post awaits him with maximum control over his actions and figure.

At the same time, one should not exclude the factor of a purposeful game in the information field, behind which more serious reshuffles are hidden in the military leadership of the Russian Federation. We will likely be able to learn about the further fate of Surovikin in the coming days.

5. Telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi

On Friday, June 30, a telephone conversation occurred between Russia and India’s leaders. According to the Kremlin, the talk was initiated by the Indian side. It is also noted that in connection with the events of June 24, Narendra Modi expressed understanding and support for the decisive actions of the Russian leadership to protect law and order and ensure stability in the country and the security of its citizens.

Key statements:

• When discussing issues of bilateral cooperation, the importance of further consistent implementation of major joint projects in various areas was noted. A significant increase in trade in 2022 and in the first quarter of this year was stated with satisfaction.

• Particular attention is paid to the interaction between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the G20. India currently holds the chairmanship and the BRICS format. Also, Narendra Modi informed about his international contacts, including during his recent visit to Washington.

• The situation around Ukraine was touched upon. The President of Russia assessed the current state of affairs in the special military operation zone, emphasising Kyiv’s absolute refusal to take political and diplomatic steps to resolve the conflict.

Outcomes and outlook:

Narendra Modi remains true to himself and plays double and even triple play. He is interested in maintaining relations with the United States, which he recently visited, and with Russia, with which India has strong economic and political ties.

Obviously, the current conversation was connected with two events: Modi informed Putin about his negotiations with Joe Biden, as well as about the results of the meeting in Copenhagen, where Western countries tried to convince the countries of the “Global South” (including India) of the advisability of developing a common position on the question of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

At the same time, one should not expect India to strongly support one of the parties soon. Apparently, it is Modi who will demonstrate demonstrative neutrality and readiness for communication with all participants in the conflict shortly.

6. Article by Dmitry Medvedev

On Sunday, July 2, Rossiyskaya Gazeta published a new article by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, entitled “The Age of Confrontation.” In this article, Medvedev, in his usual form, once again announced the threat of nuclear war and the need to prevent it by signing new “Helsinki agreements”.

Key statements:

• “In the West, they have once again raised white noise and continue to pour accusations against Russia with all their might. Everyone is trying – from senile patients with severe Russophobia in the US Senate to unstable old people in the White House.

• “The authorities in Russia have convincingly proved their strength and stability, and the country’s people have demonstrated their readiness to rally around Supreme Commander Vladimir Putin to defend the Motherland.”

• “The tectonic fault that has formed in understanding the future in different parts of the world will only worsen. The fight will be very long.”

• “Russia is in isolation.” Not at all. Political contacts with Asia, Africa and Latin America are developing very actively. Their markets are open, and their companies are working with us with might and main, despite the sanctions. The end of the era of the almighty dollar loomed. The transition to national and digital currencies is on the agenda.”

• “The Russian economy is falling apart.” In no way. Production growth is much higher than in Europe. Even Reuters admitted that in April 2023, activity in the manufacturing sector in Russia showed growth for the 12th month in a row. At the same time, our inflation is significantly lower than in many Western countries.”

• “Russia wanted to contain NATO, and the alliance expanded to include Sweden and Finland.” This is a pure lie. We have never tried to contain NATO. This is not in our power and capabilities, and these two Scandinavian countries were already associated with the alliance. We have always asked only one thing – to consider our concerns and not invite the former parts of our country to NATO. Especially those with whom we have territorial disputes. Therefore, our goal is simple – to eliminate the threat of Ukraine’s membership in NATO.”

• “What is happening now in Ukraine and the Donbas is not just a “regional conflict”, but something completely different. This is a total confrontation between the conditional collective West and the rest of the world. It is caused by the diametrical opposition of views on the further development of humanity. On one side are Western countries unwilling to admit that the world has changed radically and lost its dominance. The hybrid war they are now waging with us is their last chance to maintain a favourable status quo for themselves, not to lose their weakened power and influence.”

• “On the other side is Russia and the global East and South. Their population is almost two-thirds of the globe. These countries continue to gain strength, gradually overcoming the economic and political consequences of the colonial past. They stand for the equal development of all states. Without senior and junior partners. Without cynical division into historically developed and underdeveloped countries. On “genuine democracies” and “authoritarian regimes”, from the point of view of the West, of course.”

• “The tectonic fault that has formed in understanding the future in different parts of the world will only worsen. You don’t have to be a visionary to understand that the confrontation phase will be long.”

• “Most likely, there will simply be no winners. After all, it is impossible to consider a victory in a world in which nuclear winter has come, million-plus cities lie in ruins, and no electricity due to the transcendent electromagnetic impulse. Many people died from the shock wave, light radiation, penetrating radiation and radioactive contamination. Where terrible epidemics and famine reign.”

• “And here I will note one thing that politicians of all stripes do not like to admit: such an Apocalypse is not only possible but also quite probable. Why? There are at least two reasons. First. The world is in a much worse confrontation than during the Caribbean crisis because our opponents have decided to defeat the largest nuclear power – Russia. They are, no doubt, down-and-out jerks, but that’s just the way it is. And the second reason is quite prosaic – nuclear weapons have already been used by whom and where, which means there is no taboo!”

• “The second way to resolve this total contradiction is to search for the most difficult compromises over a long period of time. Formation of a new respectful world order, which will be based on the balance of interests of all countries. Moreover, this is not the notorious “rule-based order”, which can cause nothing but a gag reflex in any country independent of the United States. Yes, we will have to communicate a lot, endure, show restraint, leave negotiations and return to them again. Still, ultimately, we will create international contours of an equal and secure world of the 21st century. This will likely take years, possibly decades. But it’s definitely better than ditching it all together on the day of the Apocalypse.”

• “Indeed, we are ready to look for reasonable compromises, as the President of Russia has repeatedly said. They are possible but with the understanding of several fundamental points.”

• “Despite the hard-won results of the total confrontation, it is necessary to consolidate in a new document like the Helsinki Act, which ended the well-known Conference of 1975.”

• “It is likely that a careful reassembly of the UN and other international organisations will be required. It is possible only with full respect for the rights of the Security Council’s permanent members. Otherwise, it will turn out to be completely ineffective. And then the UN will sink into oblivion as an institution that has not lived up to the hopes of free peoples.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Another portion of intimidation and blackmail from Dmitry Medvedev, like his previous articles, has an explicit addressee and is published with specific goals. As Ascolta mentioned earlier, the negotiation process between Moscow and Washington is gradually reaching the public level, which requires the formation of understandable explanations for domestic consumption. Although, it should not be ruled out that the article is addressed primarily to Western elites and is like an “invitation to discussion.”

Medvedev’s new article is different in several ways. First, it directly points to the possibility and necessity of the negotiations, which will de-escalate the threat of nuclear war and construct a new world order.

Secondly, he is clearly trying to justify the expansion of NATO, calling it not a threat to Russia but a natural process that does not harm Russia. According to his vision, the only red line in this process is only the possible membership of Ukraine in NATO. The factor of Finland and Sweden is automatically taken out of brackets.

Thirdly, attention is focused directly on the “Helsinki Accords” – the revision of the existing state borders and the definition of new “realities” recognised internationally.

Fourthly, the effectiveness of the work of the United Nations is called into question (but not completely excluded). In fact, Medvedev considers China’s position, which opposes the liquidation of the UN and says that the current system needs to be reformed to increase its efficiency.

Thus, we can talk about the public formation of Russia’s demands, with which it is ready to sit down at the negotiating table: the non-bloc status of Ukraine, the recognition of new territorial realities, the reform of the UN and the signing of a new treaty on nuclear arms control (with the involvement of all representatives of the nuclear club in the treaty).

It is worth noting that the information, repeatedly voiced by Ascolta, that Russia will consider the war’s end in Ukraine only from the angle of a “big peace treaty” with the West is confirmed.

It is interesting that Medvedev, who until recently acted as a bogeyman and an outright “hawk”, is trying to produce a constructive agenda in his article. This may be evidence of a change of mood in the Russian leadership.