Russia: Weekly Report (19.06-25.06)

1. Vladimir Putin’s statements about the Russo-Ukrainian war

On Wednesday, June 21, Vladimir Putin met with Russian military university graduates. During the meeting, the Russian president also spoke to reporters. In particular, he answered a question about the situation in the war area on Ukrainian territory. It is noteworthy that once again his response incorporated information about the enormous losses of the Ukrainian side during the counter-offensive. In fact, the data he expressed radically diverged even from the official statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Key theses:

• Question: How do you generally assess the course of the [so-called] “special operation” at this moment, and what is the situation, considering the counter-offensive?”

• Putin: “I have already said, it is well known that the Ukrainian Armed Forces started a counter-offensive on June 4, using strategic reserves. Oddly enough, at the moment, we are seeing a certain pause. This is because the enemy suffers serious losses in personnel and equipment. As of yesterday evening, to be more precise, tonight, they are very significant: our men “pricked” 245 enemy tanks and approximately 678 armoured vehicles of various types. And I’m not talking about the personnel losses.”

• Putin: “Apparently, the enemy is now combining new units from brigades that have suffered serious losses. He is engaged in restoring combat capability. But, of course, he worries about the same large-scale losses in the future because this can lead not only to a loss of combat capability. And not only to a loss of offensive potential but also to a loss of combat capability of the army as a whole. There is something to think about.”

• Putin: “I just said, and I want to repeat it again: thanks to the courage and heroism of our soldiers, the readiness of commanders to repel any aggressive actions against Russia, it seems to me that the enemy has no chance. They understand this, which is why they have stood up now. However, certain elements of hostilities take place: shelling, reconnaissance in force, but, I repeat again, there are no active offensive operations yet.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Generally, Putin is characterised by the free manipulation of numbers. A certain bravado is also characteristic, especially during public speaking. In this case, we are dealing with how Putin presents the situation on the fronts. He is definitely not interested in the fact that this situation may fundamentally differ from what he imagines. It doesn’t matter to Putin. This is not the first of his performances of this kind and in a similar tone.

The fact that Putin spoke to graduates of military universities is indicative, and not only in terms of patriotic parting words.

Military education in Russia is the responsibility of Generals Popkov (status secretary of the Moscow Region, the FSB “watcher” for the ministry) and Goremykin (head of the Army’s Main Political Directorate). Popkov and Goremykin are an important tandem inside the Russian Armed Forces. We can highlight a serious gesture of Putin’s people towards the FSB’s part of the highest command. Moreover, it is also about a possible attempt of the secret services to strengthen control over the army.

It is noteworthy that such a “gesture” was made by Putin on the eve of Prigozhin’s “equality march”, during which the FSB played one of the most important roles in preventing the riot. Moreover, lately, Putin has signed several decrees strengthening the FSB, the FSO and the National Guard positions. Apparently, such a gesture could be, among other things, another demonstration of the imminent “crackdown” in the state administration system, where the security forces are regaining their dominant role.

2. Meeting with members of the Government

On Wednesday, June 21, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with members of the Russian Government. The meeting itself was held via video connection. The main topics for discussion were economic issues, including in the field of minerals, and the consequences of the disaster due to the breakthrough of the Kakhovka HPP. The primary speakers of the public part of the meeting were Minister of Transport Vitaly Savelyev and Minister of Emergency Situations Alexander Kurenkov. During the closed part, reports were heard from Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko, Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov, Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, General Director of the state corporation Rosatom Alexei Likhachev and others.

Key theses:

• Alexander Kurenkov (Minister of Emergency Situations): “As a result of the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, 23 settlements were flooded: the Novokakhovka urban district, the Alyoshkinsky and Golopristansky municipal districts of the Kherson Oblast. More than 23 thousand residential buildings and 152 socially important administrative and infrastructure facilities are in the flood area. The Nizhnedneprovsky National Natural Park territory and 12 cemeteries were also flooded.”

• Kurenkov: “Thanks to the joint actions of all forces, more than two thousand people, including 209 children, were saved. 121 people were hospitalised, and 41 were found dead. More than eight thousand people were promptly evacuated from flooded settlements, including 583 children and 291 people with disabilities.”

• Kurenkov: “As the water drains, we work on clearing the rubble. The territory is being specially treated, garbage is being removed, and the corpses of animals and birds are being disposed of. Departments of the Ministry of Defense and Rospotrebnadzor conduct biological and chemical studies of the environment.”

• Vitaly Savelyev (Minister of Transport): “The high cost and lengthy procedure for issuing paper transport documents prompted the Ministry of Transport to introduce electronic document management. Following your instruction, two federal laws and ten by-laws have been adopted. They establish the option of using electronic transportation documents. The necessary support in this matter was provided to us by Dmitry Nikolaevich Chernyshenko, for which we thank him in particular.”

• Savelyev: Speaking about the “Platon “system. This toll collection system, introduced in 2015, continues operating. During its operation, over 1.7 million vehicles weighing over 12 tons have been registered in the system, and more than 200 billion rubles have been transferred to the road fund. This year the fare is 2 rubles 84 kopecks per kilometre. In 2022 alone, 1,100 kilometres of roads in the country’s regions were repaired at the expense of the funds received.”

• Savelyev: “In April 2023, Russian Railways experimented on the simultaneous control of two unmanned high-speed trains, “Lastochka” in the general flow with other electric trains. The experiment took place on the Moscow Central Circle. It is planned that when automation is brought to the maximum level, one driver will be able to control four trains simultaneously.

• Savelyev: “Important digital solutions related to passengers have also been introduced in aviation transport. Despite the unprecedented refusal of a foreign software provider to provide services, in May 2022, Pobeda Airlines was transferred to the domestic ticket booking and transportation system within a day. On October 31, 2022, 100 per cent of Russian passenger airlines, including the national carrier Aeroflot, switched to domestic air ticket booking systems through the efforts of the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Digital Development and other structures. The system works stably; to date, more than 60 million tickets have been issued using domestic booking systems.”

• Savelyev: “I want to speak on the “Autonomous Navigation” offshore project. Its implementation in 2023 will ensure the operation of two autonomous ferries – Marshal Rokossovsky and General Chernyakhovsky. They will operate on a 550-mile route from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad to deliver cargo in the amount of 600 [thousand] tons per year for the internal consumption of the Kaliningrad region.”

• Savelyev: “In addition to solutions applied in the transport sector, we ensure the introduction of promising technologies, including artificial intelligence, machine vision technologies in barrier-free travel systems on toll roads, and in means for monitoring the condition of drivers. And the key one is the introduction of automobile drones to reduce the cost of transportation and increase their speed and safety. This technology is mostly in demand in transport and logistics centres and terminals.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Putin must show that he has his arm on the pulse of all processes. Each Russian layman should know that the real owner, the real head of government, is Putin himself, and Mishustin and others are just administrators. Such meetings are followed by personnel changes often. It is possible that we can expect them soon.

In addition, only the reports of Kurenkov and Savelyev were heard during the public part of the meeting. At the same time, the Minister of Emergency Situations spoke about successfully eliminating the consequences of the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP. The Minister of Transport tried to demonstrate the innovativeness and manufacturability of Russia’s infrastructure projects in every possible way.

Lastly, there were no typical statements about the stability of economic indicators or resilience under severe sanctions pressure. The closed part of the meeting took place less positively, which may also indicate the preparation of several reshuffles in the government.

3. Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council

On Thursday, June 22, Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting via videoconference with the Security Council’s permanent members. The meeting was attended by the Chairman of the Federation Council, Valentina Matvienko; Chairman of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin; Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev; Head of the Presidential Administration, Anton Vaino; Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin and Special Representative of the President for Environmental Protection, Ecology and Transport Sergei Ivanov. During the public part of the meeting, issues of interaction between the CSTO and the EAEU and the situation in the combat zone on the territory of Ukraine were discussed.

Key theses:

• Shoigu: “After almost 16 days of active hostilities, the enemy reduced its activity, having suffered significant losses. Currently, he is engaged in the regrouping and re-staffing of troops. Gathers from disparate parts of the battalions were those forces that could continue to lead the offensive. It’s in one direction.”

• Shoigu: “In other directions, of course, the enemy still has the strength to conduct further offensive operations; they remain, despite many losses both in equipment and personnel.”

• Shoigu: “Of course, preparations for further offensive actions are underway. From our side as well.”

• Patrushev: “Today, we have the following data. From June 4 to June 21, they destroyed: 246 tanks, including 13 western ones, 595 units of armoured combat vehicles and armoured vehicles (including 152 infantry fighting vehicles, of which 59 were western, 443 units of armoured combat vehicles, 279 guns field artillery and mortars (of which 48 units are Western). 42 multiple launch rocket systems, two anti-aircraft missile systems, ten units of tactical fighters, four helicopters, 264 unmanned aerial vehicles, and 424 units of automotive equipment”.

• Patrushev: “In terms of personnel, I think that more scattered information is coming here, but I can say that it is more than 13 thousand.”

• Shoigu: “As for the supplied and planned supply of military equipment [for Ukraine]. In total, if we talk about tanks, it is planned to deliver 250 tanks in 2023, including about 120 Leopards, 31 Abrams tanks and the remnants they collect worldwide; these are 95 T-72 tanks. Here are the delivery plans. That is, here we also see that, in fact, everything that was developed by the Soviet Union at one time and in the countries of the former socialist camp, this resource is practically exhausted, as well as the resource that Ukraine had.”

• Shoigu: “Taking into account the losses just announced by Nikolai Platonovich and those that occurred before, we now understand that the amount [of the arms – ed.] that will be delivered in 2023 and that has already been delivered will affect the course of hostilities essentially. Keeping in mind that the vast majority of armoured vehicles and armoured combat vehicles belong to the previous generation, which has, on the one hand, weak protection classes and does not show the effectiveness that modern technologies do, we don’t see any threats here. Moreover, we are actively creating reserves regarding equipment and personnel.”

• Shoigu: “Following your instructions, I can report that, speaking about the formation of reserves under the contract, this morning, 114 thousand people have been recruited. This is under a direct contract, plus 52 thousand are volunteers. On the volunteers, I know that you have paid our attention to getting people ready.”

• Shoigu: “In addition, we form reserves as part of the army corps, the army. Plus, five regiments in the 1st and 20th tank armies. Everything is going according to the plan: in fact, by the end of June, we will complete the formation of a reserve army, and soon, we will complete the formation of an army corps. Five regiments are also formed by more than 60 per cent. In this case, I’m talking about both personnel and technology.

• Shoigu: “On average, to make a complete impression: we have 1336 people on a contract per day – on average every day. In fact, we receive every essence of the regiment. Plus, Vladimir Vladimirovich, in respect of technology: on average, we receive 112 units every day. This applies to both modernised equipment and new equipment, so here we have gained serious momentum, and we do not see any risks of disrupting the formation of a reserve.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Meetings of the Security Council of the Russian Federation are one of the most essential tools for implementing Putin’s powers. This is where the most significant decisions are made. And by the echoes in the media, one can judge the trends for the near future.

Obviously, Putin sets tasks of a defensive, not offensive, nature, although with the possibility of launching a counterattack in case the Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine attempt to attack the occupying forces’ positions. But with the formation of a reserve army, Russian troops can go on a new full-scale offensive, especially if the Ukrainian Armed Forces counter-offensive slows down or fails.

It is important to note that despite a large number of participants in the Security Council’s meeting and the announced reports, only a few excerpts from Sergei Shoigu’s and Nikolai Patrushev’s reports were heard during the public part. In general, public statements focused mainly on the loss of Western equipment and the actual stoppage of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Evidently, such statements were focused entirely on the West. Given the existence of a non-public negotiation process between Moscow and Washington (mainly at the level of intelligence services and third countries intermediaries), it can be assumed that now, the Kremlin’s strategy is to gradually return to the conditions of the negotiations as of the beginning of 2022. In them, dominant factors were the neutral status of Ukraine, the non-expansion of NATO and the recognition of the world’s multipolarity system. If, however, such a strategy is really implemented, we can talk about strengthening the “peace party” positions in Russia. Otherwise, Russia is demonstrating its readiness for a significant conflict escalation.

4. “Justice March” of Evgeny Prigozhin

On Friday, June 23, the curator of PMC “Wagner” announced a missile strike by the Russian Defense Ministry on the rear camp of PMC “Wagner” and published a video about the aftermath of the strike. Prigozhin blamed Sergei Shoigu for what was happening and announced that he and the PMC fighters were starting a “Justice March” toward Moscow. He declared the change of the military leadership of the Russian Federation, as well as a change in the situation at the front, as his primary goal. The next day, Wagner PMC fighters seized the building of the southern military district in Rostov-on-Don. Also, a convoy of vehicles headed towards Moscow. By evening, information appeared that the President of Belarus had negotiated with Prigozhin and persuaded him to stop the “march”. By nightfall, the Wagner PMC fighters returned to their rear camps.

Timeline:

• On Friday, June 23, Wagner PMC reported a strike on their rear camp and published a video of its consequences. Fires were visible, the groan of the wounded was heard, and there was presumed dead. But the actual moment of impact is not on video.

• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that “all the messages and video frames distributed on social networks on behalf of Yevgeny Prigozhin” about the alleged “strike by the Russian Ministry of Defense on the PMC “Wagner” “rear camps” do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation.

• Prigozhin claimed he was taking 25,000 people somewhere to figure out “why there is chaos in the country.”

• Prigozhin said that Shoigu personally arrived in Rostov to give the order to strike at the Wagner rear camps.

• Prigozhin said that his actions are “not a military coup, but a march of justice, and they do not interfere with the troops in any way.”

• Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Putin was informed about the situation around Prigozhin.

• The FSB of Russia initiated a criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion.

• On the night of June 24, the border of the self-proclaimed “DPR” and the Rostov region was blocked.

• General Sergei Surovikin and Deputy Chief of the GRU of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, recorded video messages to Prigozhin urging him to stop anti-state actions and resolve all issues peacefully.

• The most essential Moscow objects were taken under advanced security, and security measures in the capital were strengthened.

• All officers of the National Guard of the Central District arrived at the units on alert. The police officers were also alerted.

• On the morning of June 24, Yevgeny Prigozhin published a new video message in which he stated that, together with a PMC, he entered Rostov-on-Don, where the headquarters of a group of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine are located.

• The Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation reported to Putin about initiating a criminal case in connection with an attempt by Prigozhin to arrange an armed rebellion.

• Later, Prigozhin broadcasted a new statement stating that the Chief of the General Staff, Gerasimov, allegedly commanded to bomb columns with “Wagnerites” from aircraft.

• Moscow Mayor Sobyanin announced the holding of “anti-terrorist measures” in the capital of the Russian Federation in connection with the rebellion of Prigozhin.

• A video of Prigozhin appeared on the network, allegedly at the headquarters of the Southern Military District. In the video, he is talking to Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Alekseev. Prigozhin said they shot down three helicopters and that “we will shoot down everyone.”

• In St. Petersburg, the security forces entered the Wagner Center and the hotel and restaurant, which belong to Prigozhin.

• Former Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky called on Russians to help Prigozhin. According to him, if Prigozhin goes to Moscow, it is necessary “to prevent him from stopping by helping with gasoline and solarium, to convince those sent to stop him that we now have a common enemy.” Khodorkovsky also urged his supporters from Russia to “arm” as Prigozhin’s rebellion was “a unique opportunity.”

• Dmitry Rogozin accused Prigozhin of “assisting the enemy.” In war, you need to shove your political ambitions up your ass and support the front with all your might. Any attempt to weaken it is nothing but aiding the enemy.”

• Vladimir Putin addressed Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “march of justice”: “Today Russia is waging a hard fight for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their masters. The entire war machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the life and safety of our people, for the right to be and remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history.” Also, Putin condemned the actions of Prigozhin and called on the power structures of the Russian Federation to eliminate the threat.

• Prigozhin refused Putin’s demands to surrender: “We are not going to confess.”

• During a telephone conversation between the leaders of Turkey and Russia, Erdogan told Putin that Turkey is ready to contribute to resolving the situation in Russia.

• US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed the armed insurgency in Russia with G7 allies and the top EU diplomat. According to a US State Department spokesman, Blinken “stressed that support for Ukraine will not change” and that the US “will continue to work closely with allies and partners as the situation continues to evolve.”

• Iran called the attempted armed rebellion an internal affair of Russia and expressed support for the rule of law in the country.

• Putin signed a law on the possibility of conscripted conscripts to serve under a contract, except for those who have committed serious crimes.

• The Russian Foreign Ministry warned Western countries against any hints of the possible use of the internal Russian situation to achieve their Russophobic goals.

• Dmitry Medvedev described the participation of “foreign specialists” in the current military mutiny as “quite probable”.

• Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced Monday a non-working day “to minimise risks.”

• After lunch, information appeared that the Wagner convoy was 200 kilometres from Moscow.

• Sometime later, the press service of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, stated that during the day, negotiations were held between him and Prigozhin. As a result, they managed to convince the curator of the Wagner PMC to stop the “march” and deploy the fighters. The press service also stated that following the results of the negotiations, there is a draft of an acceptable solution to the situation with the Wagner PMC, with security guarantees for its fighters.

• Prigozhin confirmed the agreement with Lukashenkoto stop the rebellion. He said he was deploying PMC Wagner and taking them to the rear camps: “The moment has come when blood can be shed. Realising all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood can be shed on one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan.

• Lukashenkoand Putin held telephone conversations, and the President of Belarus was informed about the results of negotiations with the leadership of Wagner PMC.

• Later, it became known that under the terms of the negotiations, the criminal case against Prigozhin would be closed, and the Wagner PMC fighters would receive legal immunity. Prigozhin himself will leave for the territory of Belarus.

• In its June 25 edition, the Italian “La Repubblica” stated that NATO representatives contacted the Russian Ministry of Defense because of the situation with the Prigozhin rebellion: “The Alliance wanted to make sure that what happened did not lead to a nuclear incident. Among other things, the West immediately decided to make it clear that it had nothing to do with the actions of Yevgeny Prigozhin.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Currently, any reflections on the consequences of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “Justice march” can be only hypothetical. The reaction of internal and external players demonstrated that the rebellion’s attempt caught everyone by surprise: neither Russian officials nor Western intelligence agencies had reliable information about what was happening. Further attempts to demonstrate the contrary proved to be too sloppy.

At the same time, it is too early to talk about the ultimate beneficiaries of such an action. One should not rule out a wholly controlled process by the Kremlin, just as one should not discard the option of an attempt by Putin’s inner circle to repeat historical events by removing the “tsar”. Earlier, Ascolta published a detailed analysis of the main versions of what is happening in Russia.

However, the number of fatalities is an important factor (according to officials, 13 people died due to the mutiny: 11 pilots and 2 crew members), indicating that any existing plan is out of control and could lead to unexpected consequences.

Shortly, it is worth actively monitoring possible reshuffles both in the political environment and in Putin’s inner circle, many of whose members prefer to remain in the shadows. Apparently, the so-called “Kremlin towers” are falling into an internal crisis, the results of which are difficult to predict.

Also, further Prigozhin’s actions will be an equally important factor. In terms of public perception, he is clearly the loser. At the same time, it is still too early to talk about his final withdrawal. An important point: in the entire recent history of Moscow City Court, only one person has been arrested on charges of “Armed rebellion” (Article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). It was the legendary ex-colonel of the GRU of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Kvachkov. Now, Prigozhin becomes the first against whom all charges can be dropped. He did not become independent, just as he could not prepare for such a rebellion without interacting with specific entities. The main question is just who exactly authorised such actions.

It is also important to pay attention to the reaction of China, which differs markedly from the statements of the West. The local media took the rebellion more calmly, noting the Russian security forces’ high level of control over the situation. Putin’s statement was highlighted as “tough” and “unshakable”. In fact, it can be noted that China was satisfied with the quick resolution of the situation. Its political leadership apparently disagrees with the thesis of the Western media about Putin’s weakness.

At the same time, it is important to note that any further actions and personnel decisions will not be instantaneous. Putin is not known for being quick to respond to such challenges. We can also talk about a premature bet on Alexei Dyumin as the new Minister of Defense. Definitely, there will be personnel changes, but they will last for at least several months. Then the first results of the failed rebellion will be visible.

No less important is the fact that, with the help of the rebellion, Russia carried out a partial regrouping of troops, which, although it took place in full view, at the same time remained unnoticed by most observers. This factor may be a serious threat to Ukraine. Moreover, the further fate of Wagner PMC remains unclear, which, according to preliminary forecasts, may open another front on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border or even form a zone of increased threat on the border with Poland.

5. Visit of Denis Manturov to Turkey

On Saturday, June 24, against the backdrop of events around the “equality march” of Yevgeny Prigozhin, information appeared that the Deputy Prime Minister of the government, the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov, hastily left the territory of Russia and headed for Turkey. This information was denied in the department headed by Manturov, although he did not make any statements. Later, Ascolta sources confirmed that Manturov was in Turkey, although he went there on a scheduled working visit.

Outcomes and outlook:

Manturov’s visit was planned within the framework of preliminary agreements on military-technical cooperation between the Russian Federation and Turkey. According to Ascolta, Denis Manturov, among other things, met with Bayraktar family members.

Given that both countries are interested in developing relations in the military-technical sector, the scope of this cooperation might is not yet very clear. In addition, Manturov’s visit (Sergey Chemezov’s man and one of the potential candidates for the post of head of the government of the Russian Federation) showed to Putin’s entourage that everything was going according to plan and Prigozhin’s rebellion did not stop the political and economic life of the country.