Russia: Weekly Report  (29.05-04.06)

1. UAV attack on Moscow  

On Tuesday, May 30, several Russian media announced the sounds of explosions in the Moscow region, which many residents heard in the morning. Later, videos began to appear on the network with a UAV flying over elite villages near Moscow. After some time, it became known that several UAVs hit residential buildings in Russian capital.

Timeline:

• Emergency officials said that UAVs hit two residential buildings in Moscow: Profsoyuznaya Street and Atlasova Street in New Moscow.

• Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed a UAV attack on homes in Moscow. According to him, several buildings received “minor damage.”

• The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that eight aircraft-type UAVs had attacked Moscow in the morning. The department accused Ukraine of carrying out a “terrorist act” and also reported that “all enemy drones were hit.”

• Adviser to the head of the President’s Office of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that Ukraine is not directly related to the drone attacks on Moscow: “We are getting into the era of artificial intelligence, perhaps not all drones are ready to attack Ukraine and want to return to the creators and ask the questions “why are you sending us to Ukraine. On the other hand, it seems that drones clearly understand the consequences of what they do.”

• Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of PMC Wagner, criticised the military leadership of the Russian Federation after the UAV attack on Moscow: “Smelly creatures, what are you doing? You are cattle! Get your shit out of the offices you’ve been put in to defend this country. You are the Department of Defense. You didn’t do a damn thing to step on. So what the fuck do you allow these drones to fly to Moscow? The fact that they are flying to Rublyovka to your home, and hell with it! Let your houses burn. And what do ordinary people do when drones with explosives crash into their windows?” Prigozhin wrote, adding that “the people have the right to ask questions to these bastards.”

• Later, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, reacted to the UAV attack. He stated that this attack was “Kyiv’s response to Sunday’s effective strikes by the Russian military on one of the decision-making centres.” Peskov also noted that Putin began his working day “early” and received “direct information about the attack of drones in Moscow and the Moscow region”, in particular, “through the Ministry of Defense, through the relevant departments, from the mayor of Moscow, the governor of the Moscow region, Ministry of Emergency Situations.

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said, “The Kyiv authorities are using NATO weapons to attack social facilities and terrorist attacks against Russian civilians.” According to him, “the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation react as harshly as possible to the actions of Ukrainian militants.” Shoigu also noted that several large ammunition depots and the Patriot complex had recently been destroyed in Ukraine.

• The Russian Foreign Ministry said, “Russia reserves the right to take the most severe measures in response to the terrorist attacks of the ‘Kyiv regime’.”

• The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation put Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky, Deputy Chiefs of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Igor Kolesnik and Alexander Lokota, and Deputy Commander of the Ground Forces Andrei Grishchenko on the wanted list.

• The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, called for martial law in Russia to “use all combat resources.”

• US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the US is gathering information about the drone attack in Moscow but is not supporting Ukrainian attacks in Russia: “We’ve seen the news, and we’re still gathering information about what happened. Generally speaking, we do not support terrorist attacks inside Russia. We have been focused on providing Ukraine with the equipment and training they need to reclaim their sovereign territory, which is exactly what we have done.”

• Russian State Duma Deputy Andrey Gurulev said that drones could have been launched at Mo scow from Russian territory: “There is clear and definite information that the drones that attacked Moscow could most likely have been launched from Russian territory.”

• John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator at the White House National Security Council, said that the United States wants to avoid World War III against Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory.

Outcomes and outlook:

The Russian-Ukrainian war has already gone down in history as the first “war of drones”. Obviously, in the future, the use of unmanned vehicles will only increase – and by both sides of the confrontation.

At the same time, it is worth noting that it is not known for certain whether UAVs were used in the attack on Moscow by the Ukrainian side, as this is a complicated technical task. But the Russian side has already used this incident to raise the stakes in internal intrigues, especially among the military.

According to Ascolta, Lieutenant General Andrei Demin, Commander of the Anti-Missile and Air Defense Forces and First Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, was dismissed at the end of May. Several groups of influence sought his resignation from the Russian Armed Forces. Therefore, it is quite possible that the drone attacks on Moscow at the end of May, just like the attacks on the Kremlin a few weeks earlier, are just decorations for the internal agenda, a desire to create an appropriate background that would allow for several personnel changes and redistribute spheres of authority and influence inside the army.

On the other hand, the very cautious reaction of the West is becoming more and more noticeable. Statements about the unwillingness to allow the outbreak of a third world war and the positions of individual states, demonstrating the unwillingness to use their weapons on Russia’s territory, indicate severe disagreements regarding the further development of the situation.

Shortly, we can expect a recurrence of such attacks on the territory of Russia, and at the same time, one should not deny serious risks for Ukraine.

2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with the President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki 

On Wednesday, May 31, Vladimir Putin met with the President of the State of Eritrea, Isaias Afevorka, in the Kremlin. According to the official statements of the parties, during the meeting, the development of economic relations between the states was discussed. It was also planned to sign intergovernmental agreements.

Key theses:

• Putin: “Of course, we must, first of all, pay attention to the development of trade and economic ties. But I would like to note that we have good prospects here in many areas, which we will discuss today.”

• Putin: “As you know, we are holding the second Russia-Africa summit this year. Dear Mr President, You are also invited to this event. I hope you have the opportunity.”

• Afevorki: “I believe that the global world order is on the verge of a radical transformation, and this requires objective assessments and mutual consultations on this issue, which is of the utmost importance and importance. The general assessments that we will come to, in turn, will play a key role in formulating the partnership programs that we are planning.”

• Afworkki: “The thoughtless ideology and unrestrained dominance actions that have been taken over the past 30 years to create a unipolar world order have led to numerous crises and massive destruction, and this is a serious barrier to the progress of mankind.”

• Afevorki: “I hope, I am convinced that the Russian Federation will play its part in this mission of all humanity on the path to solidarity and cooperation among free peoples. And in this vein, I want to wish you every success on this path.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Russia seeks to strengthen its presence not only on the African continent but especially in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea area. At one time, Eritrea, as part of Ethiopia, was part of the sphere of influence of the USSR; after self-determination and independence, Eritrea maintained political and trade relations with Russia. In particular, Russia supplied weapons to Eritrea during the conflict with Djibouti in the summer of 2008. Recently, relations between Russia and Eritrea have been developing. Nevertheless, Eritrea remains the poorest country in Africa, with many points of conflict in relations with its neighbours. Moreover, president Afwerki, who has been in power since 1993 (since the state gained independence), has turned the country into an almost buried state, with severe restrictions on the media and 10,000 imprisoned opponents of the regime. Such a policy pushes Afevorki to develop relations with countries such as Russia and China, where the attitude towards totalitarian regimes is more than loyal. That is why we can say that Afwerka’s visit is a continuation of the search for support for Eritrea in countries that have come into conflict with Western democracies, as well as a continuation of the expansion of the external interests of Russia and China on the African continent.

3. Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Burundi  

On Monday, May 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began his working visit to the African continent. During it, he visited Kenya, Burundi, Mozambique, and South Africa, where a summit of the heads of foreign affairs departments of the BRICS member states was held.

Timeline:

• On May 29, Lavrov visited the capital of Kenya, Neurobi. There he met with the President of the Republic, William Ruto, the Chairman of the National Assembly, Moses Wetangula, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kenya, Alfred Mutu.

• It is noted that during the visit, Lavrov and the Kenyan leaders substantively considered practical steps to expand the areas and increase the volume of joint business cooperation, including mutual trade, whose performance in 2022 approached $400 million. In this context, the priority was to complete the preparations for signing an agreement on establishing the Intergovernmental Russian-Kenyan Commission for Economic Cooperation, which will make it possible to give a systematic approach to joint work in this area. Furthermore, the potential was noted in the areas of geological exploration and mining, energy, telecommunications and cybersecurity, agricultural production and tourism.

• On May 30, Sergei Lavrov, for the first time in the history of diplomatic relations between the two states, visited the capital of Burundi, Bujumbura, where he met with President Evariste Ndayishimiye and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Development Cooperation of Burundi Albert Chingiro.

• In the course of the meetings and conversations that took place, a set of issues of further strengthening the traditionally friendly Russian-Burundian relations was discussed. At the same time, the invariable attitude of Moscow and Bujumbura to deepening political dialogue and building up cooperation in international affairs was confirmed. It was recognised as essential to continue closely coordinating the principled positions of the two countries in the UN and other multilateral platforms. A mutual focus was stated on intensifying joint work to increase trade volumes, promote investment cooperation, and expand humanitarian contacts, including training Burundian professional personnel in Russia.

• On May 31, Lavrov arrived in Maputo, the capital of Mozambique. There he also held working meetings with President of Mozambique Filipe Nyusi, Minister of Public Works, Housing and Water Resources Carlos Meschita, and Acting Co-Chairman of the Russian-Mozambican Intergovernmental Commission on Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Mozambique, Francis Gonçalves.

• It is noted that due to the visit, mutual interest was expressed in closer foreign policy coordination, expansion of trade, economic and investment cooperation, intensification of inter-parliamentary and humanitarian ties, and inter-party contacts. In addition, fruitful cooperation in the educational sphere was stated, including training qualified personnel for Mozambique in Russian universities.

• On June 1-2, Sergey Lavrov visited the Republic of South Africa, where the summit of foreign ministers of the BRICS member states was held. During it, Lavrov met with colleagues from India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

Key points from Sergey Lavrov’s speech at the BRICS summit:

• “The world is changing rapidly right in our eyes. The states of Asia, Africa and Latin America are strengthening their economic positions, demonstrating their desire and readiness to defend their sovereign national interests and play an equal role in global processes. As a result, the formation of a more just polycentric world order is accelerating. The unipolar way of life, “sharpened” to create privileges for one narrow group of countries by imposing on everyone else some rules and standards dictated by selfish interests and do not take into account the fundamental principles of international law, is becoming a thing of the past.

• “The manifestations of hegemonism and unilateralism that plague the Global South and East are still widespread. The West, through sanctions and financial blackmail, is persistently trying to influence the choice of an economic model and trading partners by sovereign states, limiting their opportunities.”

• “Against the background of the actions of the West, our countries, together with all the states of the global majority, must actively search for universal joint answers to the challenges of our time. I would single out attempts to undermine the foundations of collective, equal and indivisible security, regional conflicts, international terrorism, and transnational crime, including the criminal use of modern technologies. In this context, we welcome holding a separate session within the framework of the Ministerial Council in the format of “Friends of BRICS” with the invitation of like-minded states.”

Outcomes and outlook:

This visit should be considered a continuation of a series of visits by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry to African countries. Russia and China form a unique field of influence – the so-called Global South, which clearly opposes the United States and its policies today.

Kenya and Burundi are more swing states that have aligned themselves with the US on some issues but are critically interested in economic relations with China and Russia. For example, Kenya is one of the four African states (along with Liberia, Morocco and Tunisia) that took part in the meetings of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine. However, after the transition of power in Kenya at the end of 2022 and the coming to the presidency of William Ruto, who is less focused on Washington, the situation in the country’s foreign policy has changed. It was these moments that became decisive during the visit. African countries will be required to be close to the Russian-Chinese point of view, including on the Ukrainian issue.

Of course, current attempts to strengthen Chinese and Russian positions in Africa are openly ridiculed by many Western leaders (including a similar situation among Ukrainian politicians). But, at the same time, it should be considered that Africa is a serious resource base, control over which will have decisive positions shortly. In this case, it can be stated that France, Britain and the United States (countries that previously had a profound influence on African countries) are losing the fight for the continent.

4. Dmitry Medvedev’s statement to the UK  

On Wednesday, May 31, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, published a post on his Twitter account stating that any UK official could be considered a legitimate military target of Russia. So Medvedev commented on the words of British Foreign Secretary James Cleverley, who had previously said that Ukraine, in self-defence, has the right to use force outside its borders to undermine Russia’s ability to strike at Ukraine. Cleverly himself made this statement after the drone attack on Moscow.

The deputy head of the Security Council motivated his statement about “legitimate purposes” by the fact that the UK can be qualified as a state at war with the Russian Federation within the framework of “generally recognised international law governing the conduct of modern warfare”:

“Today, Great Britain acts as an ally of Ukraine, providing it with military assistance in the form of equipment and specialists, that is, de facto waging an undeclared war against Russia. In such a case, any of its officials (both military and civilian officials contributing to the war) can be considered a legitimate military target.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Dmitry Medvedev continues his work to ensure that he will take the vacant position of Vladimir Zhirinovsky (after he died in 2022) in the minds of Russian citizens. Medvedev’s latest publications are distinguished by extreme intolerance towards Russia’s enemies and opponents, demanding a demonstration of force and forceful actions. The danger to the UK due to Medvedev’s posts remains basically zero (as well as the efficiency of these publications). Still, they clearly show that today in the minds of the Russian establishment, London looks eviler than Washington. In the near future, London will become the object of criticism and attacks from Russia.

It should be borne in mind that the presence of an external enemy in Russian society is decisive in many areas. The shift of this image from the US to the UK demonstrates severe changes in the geopolitical arena, which are already strong for many processes. The strengthening of non-public diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Washington reflects the parties’ readiness for a gradual thaw in relations, which is apparently aimed at a global de-escalation. At the same time, the isolation of Russia in the West will continue due to the moral position of London.

5. Combat operations on Russian territory  

On Thursday, July 1, Russian military Telegram channels began to actively disseminate information about an attempt to “break through the Armed Forces of Ukraine” near the village of Shebekino, Belgorod Region. It was also reported that a tank battle was going on in the area. In turn, the Governor of the Belgorod Region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, reported that Shebekino was again under fire at night, and air defences over Belgorod also went off. Later, the “Russian Volunteer Corps” announced that it was again “fighting” on the Russian territory.

Timeline:

• In the morning, the operational headquarters of the Belgorod region denied the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the area. At the same time, he said, “The sounds of battle are heard”: “The situation in the Shebekinsky urban district is difficult at the moment; shelling is underway, sounds of battle are heard. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are working, but there is no breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

• There have been reports of a mass exodus of residents from Shebekino village.

• The Russian Volunteer Corps claimed to be fighting on the outskirts of Shebekino: the villages of Novaya Tavolzhanka and Titovka, and published several videos of clashes in which the area could not be identified.

• Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that the shelling situation in the Belgorod region “cannot in any way influence the course of the so-called “Northern Military District” of the Russian Federation as a whole.”

• On May 2, it became known about the mass shelling of Shebekino. A video appeared on the network with burning and destroyed infrastructure facilities in the village.

• There are also shots of air defence work over the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. Later, local authorities announced the destruction of the UAV.

• On Sunday, May 4, members of the Russian Volunteer Corps recorded a video message to the Governor of the Belgorod Region with a proposal to meet in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka to exchange prisoners. In response, Vyacheslav Gladkov offered to meet on the territory of the village of Shebekino. As a result, no further communications took place.

Outcomes and outlook:

The events in the Belgorod region combine a number of factors that are gradually forming severe risks for the Kremlin. Firstly, even though a significant part of the news about the events in the settlements of the Belgorod region is outright fakes, the very facts of crossing the Russian border and conducting local hostilities on the territory of the Russian Federation once again indicate a severe crisis within the military bloc of the Russian Federation, which leads to the inability to protect own boundaries. This factor is a ticking time bomb and will have its consequences after some time. Firstly, we are talking about changes in public sentiment, which may negatively affect the results of the upcoming elections.

At the same time, with the help of organisations such as the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia legion, Ukraine is trying to demonstrate the existence of a severe underground in Russian society, which is ready to fight against the political regime with arms in hand. It is important to note that Russia does not have such tools and cannot offer a linear answer – conditional volunteer groups consisting of citizens of Ukraine. In the public plane, this is a significant indicator.

At the same time, the presence of hostilities on the territory of Russia raises serious concerns in the West, which not only refuses to support such actions publicly but also openly opposes the use of its weapons for such actions. Therefore, it should not be ruled out that anti-war rhetoric will intensify in the West shortly, calling for a peaceful settlement of the situation.

At the same time, further development of the situation in the Belgorod region may lead to the introduction of martial law on the territory of Russia, in which, apparently, part of both the military and political authorities of the Russian Federation is also interested. It is worth noting that several legislative changes have recently been introduced in Russia that strengthen the position of the military leadership under martial law.

6. Meeting of the heads of security agencies and special services of the CIS member states in Minsk 

On Thursday, June 1, Minsk hosted the 52nd meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services of the CIS Member States, which representatives of the special services of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan attended. It is noteworthy that Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the FSB, and Sergey Naryshkin, Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, came from Russia to the meeting. Furthermore, despite some statements about the critical state of health of Alexander Lukashenko (who personally participated in the meeting), during the meeting with the heads of the special services, he looked quite cheerful and made several statements.

Key points from Alexander Lukashenko’s speech: 

• “This is not the first time I have met with specialists and leaders (both within the CSTO and the EAEU, and so on); naturally, on the eve of any event, you always think about the main thing. The main thing is that all members of the CIS take our advice very seriously. And the fact that all the heads of security agencies have arrived in Belarus shows that you see what is happening around our borders, our Commonwealth, and you understand what can happen.”

• “I totally agree with President Putin when he says that we did not start this war. It didn’t even start in 2014. It started well before 2014. We saw everything that happened here: the “brown” coup that took place, and what Ukraine is being led to. We saw who was at the forefront.”

• “Imagine if they started to mock US citizens in Mexico, Americans? That Mexico would no longer exist.”

• “Everything was leading up to this. Probably the only mistake we made was that we did not resolve this issue in 2014-2015 when Ukraine had neither an army nor readiness … Everyone wanted to resolve it somehow peacefully. And during this time, they created combat-ready armed forces.”

• “No one needs us, except for the post-Soviet space that exists today after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In fact, we speak the same language; we have a single economy, common markets, industrial cooperation, and so on. To create this, there will not be enough time in our lives or our children’s. And why break? Why break this common market?

• “The military-political situation around our Commonwealth is becoming increasingly aggravated, and it will become aggravated. And we need to understand that the big players around us – Russia, Belarus, the Central Asian states – will slowly try to pull us apart. And in a good way and in a bad way. We guys shouldn’t let that happen. This is my ironclad point of view. I already feel it in my gut; after all, I have been working as President for several years. We see the growing militarisation of the countries of the NATO bloc and an unprecedented concentration of troops near our common territory, the incitement of religious, armed conflicts.”

“One of the key threats today is the information and psychological impact, the dissemination of deliberately false, fake information. The purpose of such actions is to undermine the authority of our states in the international arena. And not only this. Dangerous, aggressive actions are sometimes summed up under fakes. Take the drone attacks on the Russian Federation. What does it mean militarily? Almost nothing. But to substitute it for fakes – it seems, and it passes, and here, somewhere else, they begin to discuss it. Therefore, information-psychological warfare is the basis, and everything is summed up under it: the economy, scientific and technical cooperation, the Internet, and even armed provocations.

• “Intelligence information, including through the channels of our partnerships between the special services, indicates that the listed threats will only grow in the foreseeable future,” the Belarusian leader stated. – If one of us thinks we can sit out quietly and wait – it is hollow expectation. An eloquent example of this is the recent events in Kazakhstan. There is an internal element, as always. It just doesn’t happen out of nowhere. There is always some internal element. There are forces interested in destabilisation, a return to power, or something else. But then, around this internal element, foreign intelligence services quickly create a whole bunch of these elements that contribute to destabilising the situation in our republics. But the example of Kazakhstan is that we all rallied then. And, it seems, they didn’t do anything but only saw our determination – they retreated.”

• “As for Belarus, I can note that in Poland, Lithuania, and, unfortunately, in Ukraine, members of illegal armed groups are being trained, and attempts are being made to create dormant extremist cells directly in the country. Recent evidence bears this out.”

Outcomes and outlook:

Earlier, Ascolta continually announced attempts to implement the idea of creating a single intelligence community on the territory of the CIS member states (following the example of the Western “Five Eyes”). However, such meetings only confirm the intensive work on implementing such a project.

Moreover, it is essential to note that the CIS members are currently facing some challenges that require closer cooperation and joint response. We are talking not only about the factor of Ukraine but also about possible events in Belarus, the escalation of the situation in the Caucasus, as well as the presence of many external threats in the states of Central Asia.

In the near future, we should expect a number of public statements about attempts to carry out coup d’état, intensify the fight against opposition forces, and introduce new legislative norms that strengthen the powers of the special services.

7. Signing by Putin of the legislation on strengthening the martial law 

On Tuesday, May 29, Vladimir Putin signed a law on tightening some rules that apply during martial law. In particular, it provides for the following innovations:

Military personnel will be given additional powers in territories where martial law has been introduced. For example, they can arrest people for 30 days if they refuse to comply with the requirements of the military.

The authorities can forcibly relocate residents from areas where martial law has been introduced to areas where such a situation has not been established.

The draft law’s authors were the chairmen of the committees of the State Duma and the Federation Council on legislation Pavel Krasheninnikov and Andrey Klishas, as well as a number of other parliamentarians.

Outcomes and outlook:

The new version of the law “On martial law in the Russian Federation” comes into force on June 9, 2023. It is possible that by this time, an attempt to expand martial law to the regions of the Russian Federation bordering Ukraine Ukraine may be carried out (at present, the martial law regime operates throughout the territory of the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine).

It is important to note that such changes could majorly impact the upcoming elections (both the single voting day and the 2024 presidential election). This is because the Ministry of Defense and the FSB of Russia get the opportunity to influence the electoral processes at all levels of government within the territory of whose jurisdiction martial law has been introduced.

Suppose martial law is soon or subsequently introduced throughout Russia, as Ascolta’s sources have repeatedly stated. In that case, the security forces of the Russian Federation will have total control over the election campaigns’ conduction. Such an approach completely eliminates any opposition activity and reduces opportunities for external influence. It is likely that the effectiveness of the new changes to the law “on martial law” can be tested in the fall, and if it shows a positive result, then martial law will be introduced closer to the presidential election.

8. Anthony Blinken’s statements about relations with Russia

On Friday, June 2, during his visit to Helsinki, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken delivered a keynote speech on the security situation in Europe. In particular, Blinken made several statements about US-Russian relations.

Key theses:

• Blinken called Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine a “complete strategic failure”, saying that Moscow had destroyed its credibility for years to come.

• “Many were convinced that the Russian army is the second in the world. And many believed it. Now we see that it is second… in Ukraine.”

• Blinken also dismissed calls for a ceasefire as long as Russia controls the territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine: “This legitimises the Russian seizure of territory. This will reward the aggressor and punish the victim.”

• “The United States is not an enemy of Russia, and Washington does not pursue the goal of destroying this country.”

• “We do not have a goal to overthrow the government of the Russian Federation; we never had such a goal. The Russians must decide for themselves what their future will be.”

• “A secure and prosperous Russia is in America’s interest.”

Outcomes and outlook:

In fact, with his statement, Blinken demonstrates a new US strategy in relations with Russia. Speaking about the lack of goals to ruin or destroy Russia, he sends another message to the Russian oligarchs that Washington considers Russia and Putin as separate factors and, having got rid of the latter, representatives of Russian big business can retain their assets and take part in the formation of a new Russia, which Blinken describes as “safe and prosperous”.

This message was critically received in the Kremlin and later was reflected in several public statements. At the same time, it became clear that several oligarchs are seriously dependent on their assets in the West.

In this case, one should expect an intensification of the internal struggle, which increasingly exposes the stumbling blocks and demonstrates the fragmentation of the opposing camps. We can conclude that the United States is gradually changing its strategy and counting on a long-term struggle against Russia and its current political leadership.