On February 17-19, 2023, the 59th Annual Security Conference was held in Munich. This time it hosted participants from 150 countries, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Politburo member of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Wang Yi, US Vice President Kamala Harris, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and others.
The main topics discussed during the conference were Russia’s war against Ukraine and the political confrontation between the US and China. Also, within the framework of the conference, negotiations were held between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Karabakh. Two events dedicated to Ukraine also took place on the sidelines of the conference. Businessman Viktor Pinchuk organised both.
Speech of Volodymyr Zelenskiy
At the conference’s opening, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, was included. The main points of his speech:
– This panel is called “David on the Dnieper”. I see reasonable respect for Ukraine and everything that our people do in this. But this year, determination has been shown on different shores. And not only the Dnieper. Spree and Seine, Thames and Potomac, Vistula and Tiber: David now is us; this is a free world.
– I want to thank you for the powerful support and weapons. I am grateful to everyone who gives the Ukrainian David a sling, thanks to which the Russian Goliath has already staggered.
– Goliath has no chance. But, unfortunately, there is potential. Unfortunately, by trading with the world, he tries to buy himself time for aggression. Unfortunately, it can destroy many more lives. That’s why we must hurry. We need speed. The speed of our arrangements. The speed of supplies to strengthen our sling. The speed of decisions limits the Russian potential. Speed has no alternative.
– While we are now agreeing on how to strengthen our defence with modern tanks, the Kremlin is also thinking about how to strangle Moldova. While we are convinced that Ukraine needs modern combat aviation, the Kremlin has already convinced the Iranian regime.
– What awaits, for example, Libya, Mali or the Central African Republic while Moscow has power? What’s next for Syria? Nothing good. Like many other nations. And that means you will not be at peace. Goliath must lose. There is no alternative to this.
– The longer the discussion on EU enlargement, the more destruction the Kremlin brought into the “grey zone” between the EU and Russia. The louder it was said to wait before Ukraine was allowed to enter NATO’s “open” door, the more aggressive Russian policy became.
– Like a year ago, I propose to act immediately. But, unlike last year, now I have the most convincing argument – our achievements. Can we deter Russian strikes? Yes! Can we protect cities from Russian missiles? Undoubtedly. Can we free our land? There is 1891 proof of this. That is how many cities, towns and villages we liberated from Russian occupation. Can we return security in the Black Sea and food security to the world? The Black Sea Grain Initiative and the humanitarian initiative from Ukraine are compelling. Has the time come for Ukraine to be fully-fledged in Europe?
– There is no alternative to the Ukrainian victory. There is no alternative to Ukraine in the European Union. There is no alternative to Ukraine in NATO.
– It is necessary to liberate Ukraine and Europe. After all, if Russian weapons shoot at us, their sights are already aimed at our neighbours. Can Europe be a subject of compromise?
– Olaf, Emmanuelle, all our friends! I think you understand me.
– We, the united Davids, will defeat the Putins worldwide.
Zelensky also answered what would happen if Belarus joined the war: “This will be a big mistake for Lukashenka and Belarus. This will be a historic mistake. If this happens, we will be at war with Belarus.”
Speech of Andrii Yermak
On February 18, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, spoke at the panel discussion. Key points of the speech:
– It is in the interests of Ukraine and the whole world to build such a security mechanism that can prevent aggression or effectively punish it.
– Injustice is always based on impunity and profit. And that is why Ukraine is fighting not only for its survival and freedom – it pays the highest price for the new ethics to come out of the fire of war, which will form the basis of the post-war world order.
– This new ethic must provide for three points: 1) injustice must be unprofitable; injustice must be punished; 3) benefit should be determined only by fairness.
– the existing mechanisms have shown their failure to ensure security in Europe, and all the measures that have been applied since the beginning of the Russian invasion were exclusively reactive. Thus, it is in the interests of Ukraine and the whole world to build a mechanism capable of preventing aggression.
– We need security guarantees today.
– For us, the desire to become NATO members is evident, as this will be the highest guarantee of our security.
– Today, Ukraine is the best image maker of NATO because, with the help of the Alliance countries, it defeated the “second army of the world” and dispelled the myth about supposedly equal opportunities between Russia and NATO.
– We are not asking for anything excessive – we are asking only for what will allow us to win this war and prevent the spread of Russian aggression. This is our common goal – to win this war. Russia will not stop in Ukraine if Ukraine does not stop it.
Speech of Kamala Harris
The participants assessed the speech of US Vice President Kamala Harris as very weak and superficial. Characteristically, during the conference, Washington refused to propose any plan for Ukraine. Participants heard, in fact, nothing new. The status quo and the current plan (war of attenuation) remain. Otherwise, the US is determined to address trade and environmental risks.
The main theses of Kamala Harris:
– The US commitment to NATO´s Article 5 is rigorous.
– In the interests of global security, it is necessary to maintain a world order based on rules. We are concerned that Beijing has strengthened its relationship with Russia. This leads to the encouragement of aggression. The US will support Ukraine. And we will do it for as long as necessary.
– We have studied the data, and we know the legal procedures – the actions of the Russian army are a crime against humanity. This is our official position. The participants in the crimes will face the responsibility.
– Russian troops inflict systematic strikes on the civilian population.
– Kyiv survived. Russia is weakened. NATO is stronger than ever.
– I have no illusions about what lies ahead for us. There will be more dark days in Ukraine, the daily agony of war will continue, and the consequences of the war will be felt by countries near and far, from Africa to Southeast Asia and the Caribbean. But if Putin thinks he can wait for our retreat, he is gravely mistaken. Time is not on his side. And I am convinced that Ukraine will cope, that the United States and Europe will cope. Americans know well the meaning of independence. We believe in the fundamental importance of sovereignty and the rule of law. And we will always stand on the side of justice.
Speech of Josep Borrel
The speech of the head of the European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, seemed more meaningful.
The main points of his speech:
– NATO is a guarantee of the territorial integrity of Europe. So it was, so it is, and so it will be. But this is consistent with the possibility and necessity of European countries to build up their defence potential and act independently, if necessary.
– We have to change our procedural rules. This will change the size of Europe. You need adapted decision rules when you go from 27 members to 33. It will be a difficult job because even before the war, there were numerous problems in Ukraine. Ukraine must transform its structures, resist corruption and develop the economy – all this is now bombed. Ukraine is a member of the EU; it just needs to be institutionalised, they have to do the work, and we will help them and do the work on our part. Whether someone likes it or not.
– On Ukraine’s possible accession to the European Union: don’t expect it to happen overnight because you must meet all the requirements.
– Defense belongs to the competence of states, not the EU. The European Commission cannot force countries to increase defence budgets. Several countries will be categorically opposed to spending more on defence. We can only convince them.
– We need to keep in mind the discontent of Africa due to post-colonial reasons. Or in Latin America, there are also demonstrations of post-colonial sentiments. People remember what happened before, and emotions play an essential role, so we must show that we are defending universal values.
– The war highlighted the vulnerability of our partners in terms of social, economic and environmental challenges. They fear we are only focusing on Ukraine at the expense of our commitments in other areas. They accuse us of this, but we must reassure them that these accusations are unfair and will intensify our engagement and commitment to the rest of the world. We must prove that we are still a global entity and that our potential is not limited to our region.
– We forgot about classic wars. Then, we were engaged in expeditionary operations and technological blitzkriegs. Now we need to restore our potential, given that wars will be different and require different forces and means in the future. Our industry must comply with these requirements, as well as the procedures of the European Union. For example, it took ten months to coordinate 155-mm shells – this does not correspond to the trends of the times and the military situation we find ourselves in.
– I travel around the world, especially in the global south, and I see how strong the Russian narrative is, which wants to reduce the war in Ukraine to a conflict between the West and Russia, with many accusations of double standards. We must debunk this narrative and explain how Russia operates as an imperial power. President Macron announced a new colonial power. Yes, that’s how it is; let’s put it this way. This is the imperialist position of a powerful neighbour who wants to take control of someone who belongs to his political sphere.
– President Zelensky and other Ukrainians received a lot of applause yesterday. Less applause – more ammunition. We know that to win a mobile war, tanks are needed. Now there is a shortage of ammunition; it must be eliminated quickly, within weeks.
In March, Borrell will hold a meeting at which he will try to convince all the countries of the European Union to transfer all the ammunition they have to Ukraine. New purchases will take too long.
Speech of Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron said he supports Ukraine’s victory in the current war but does not want Russia “to be crushed.” In an interview with French journalists on the sidelines of the conference, Macron said: “I want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine, and I want Ukraine to be able to defend its position.” At the same time, he suggested that as a result of the conflict, neither side could gain an overwhelming advantage. “I am convinced that everything will not end militarily in the end,” said the French President. Macron added that, unlike some, he does not want the war to spread to the territory of Russia itself. Such people, as Macron said, “first of all want to crush Russia.” “This has never been the position of France – and never will be.”
Excerpts of Macron’s speech at the conference:
– When I hear talk about regime change in Russia, I always ask: what regime are we going to change? What guidance? Because in the last decade, there have been many attempts to change the regime, and they all failed. There is a specific regime; there are issues that concern him. There is a question of how to use this situation and allow offering Russia something sustainable long-term. What it will be is impossible to say because the primary task is to support Ukraine to ensure its ability to resist.
– If Europe wants to be able to defend itself, it must also arm itself.
– A year ago, I talked to Putin and almost believed him, as far as the Wagner PMC is concerned, that they do not belong to him. And now, they have officially entered the Russian army, a blunt instrument of the Russian Federation for committing crimes and sowing chaos.
– Now is not the time for dialogue with Russia.
Curiously, both Macron himself and many in Europe believe that the position of the President of France – the victory of Ukraine without the defeat of Russia – is a compromise. Even more interesting is that this is the only announced position that can be considered continental European. Other EU countries either do not have it at all and prefer to move in the general stream with more or less enthusiasm (by the way, Germany is one of them), or it is an exaggerated version of the American approach to the irreversible strategic defeat of Russia. Representatives of the latter group accuse Macron of conciliating with Putin.
Speech of Rishi Sunak
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was rather categorical. The main points of Sunak’s speech:
– The British prime minister said that London would be the first to supply Kyiv with “long-range weapons.”
– Turning to the European countries, Sunak urged not to consider the depletion of their arsenals as a problem because, in his opinion, they were intended to fight the Russian Federation.
“Now is the time to double down on military support for Ukraine.
– Putin is betting that we will lose our temper.
– Britain must prove that Putin is wrong.
– In March, the grain deal should be extended.
– The conflict in Ukraine has reached a turning point. Ukraine should receive military assistance for the counter-offensive. Time is of the essence. The conflict can be ended on Ukraine’s terms. The alternative to this would be worse. Why do we need military supplies if they are not helping to destroy Russian tanks now? This is what they were created for.
– Agreements and agreements of the Cold War era turned out to be untenable; they let Ukraine down. We need a new legal framework to keep the peace. After all, Russia, starting from Georgia and ending with Moldova, committed violations of the basic provisions of international law.
– This month, we are supplying as much military equipment to Ukraine as in 2022. This is because we must strengthen the security of Ukraine.
– Russia must pay for the restoration of Ukraine.
– We need a military strategy for Ukraine. Putin thinks the West is tired of helping Ukraine, but it’s not. So we will supply long-range ammunition and an air defence system.
Reuters stated that “British Prime Minister Sunak and US Vice President Harris agreed that Russia’s war against Ukraine is a ‘global war’.
On the sidelines of the Munich Conference, experts said that London, under Sunak, almost radically changed its position on military assistance to Ukraine. It is formulated as follows: the verbal series of British policy should remain radical, while practical steps should reduce the momentum. So, London refused to transfer fighters, the latest air defence systems and tanks to Kyiv. Britain will henceforth fully coordinate its military assistance with the US and the EU. Sunak himself takes the position that Britain needs to resolve the issue of removing risks from Brexit and gradually look for ways to return to Europe. In addition, Sunak is ready to work with Macron and Scholz to develop joint positions.
Speech of Jens Stoltenberg
The speech of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was memorable. His main theses:
– Since 2018, NATO has been preparing the Ukrainian army, so Ukraine has managed to survive (Russian media and officials from the Russian Foreign Ministry have already interpreted Stoltenberg’s words that NATO was systematically preparing Ukraine for war with Russia).
– Our position has not changed – Ukraine should become a member of NATO. Now the task is to preserve the sovereignty of Ukraine. We cannot allow Russia to break off pieces of European territory.
– The most important lesson of the war in Ukraine is that North America and Europe must show unity. We need NATO more than ever. Without NATO, security in Europe is impossible. This is not the time to go beyond the alliance but to expand and strengthen it.
– The Kremlin seeks to create a different Europe where Russia will control its neighbours. We also know that Beijing is watching this very closely to see what price Russia is paying and what reward it will receive for its aggression. What is happening in Europe today can happen in Asia.
“Some are worried that our support for Ukraine could escalate. Let me tell you: there are no options without risks, but the most significant risk is that Putin will win. If Putin wins in Ukraine, his signal to other authoritarian leaders will be that they can use force to get their way.
Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev reacted to Stoltenberg’s words: “Well, how did they screw up there in NATO. Stoltenberg said that the risk of a Russian victory is much higher than the risk of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. I translate into understandable Russian: the risk of starting a third world war is significantly less than the risk of our country winning. Freaks. They hate and fear.”
At the same time, Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO denied Ukraine cluster munitions. “NATO did not recommend or supply these types of weapons. We supply artillery and other weapons, but not cluster bombs,” Stoltenberg said. However, the fact is that the representative of the Ukrainian delegation, Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov, publicly demanded that NATO and the conference participants provide Ukraine with phosphorus weapons and cluster bombs. Moreover, these types of weapons are prohibited by international conventions.
“Ukraine demands everything. I consider this demand (on cluster bombs and phosphorus munitions) a mistake… However, just because they demand something does not mean that it needs to be implemented,” commented Anton Hofreiter, head of the Bundestag committee on European affairs, commenting on Ukraine’s demands.
Speech of Anthony Blinken
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made several statements during the conference:
– The United States established the facts of the commission of crimes against humanity by Russia.
– Biden’s speech in Warsaw will be more significant than Putin’s speech in Moscow.
– Putin mistakenly believes that NATO wants to commit aggression against Russia; it never will be. On the contrary, to his credit, Putin has helped strengthen NATO since 2014.
– We have no doubts about the victory and success of Ukraine.
– All communications between Russia with the world are cut off. There may come a time when Putin realises he is on the wrong track.
Speech of Ursula von der Leyen
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is urgently considering allowing EU countries to come together to purchase weapons to send to Ukraine, as they did when buying COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic. “The time has come to speed up production,” said President Ursula von der Leyen.
She also stated that the EU and the US began to develop sanctions against Russia in December 2021.
On the sidelines of the conference, Mrs von der Leyen met with the Klitschko brothers and Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki.
Speeches of Russian opposition
The speech of representatives of the Russian opposition in Munich was sensational (albeit at additional events on the sidelines of the conference).
Garry Kasparov called Ukraine’s victory in the war a necessary pre-condition for any positive changes in Russian society. In his opinion, the Russian people need to understand that Russia is losing. He called the return of the annexed Crimea to Ukraine the key to such an understanding. “Crimea is the basis of Putin’s mythology,” Kasparov said, calling on Western countries to contribute in every possible way to the Ukrainian victory.
According to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the West should not be afraid of the escalation of hostilities. On the contrary, he believes de-escalation and a truce on the Kremlin’s terms would be unacceptable. “This means that the thief would have managed to get away with the loot,” Khodorkovsky said. He considers the weakening of presidential power and the principle of separation and balance of powers to be the key to a successful democratic future for Russia.
“It is impossible to change Russia today within the framework of existing legislation since it is a dictatorship. Therefore, any change will be a revolution, going beyond the current legislation. However, civil war is another matter and should be avoided,” Khodorkovsky said.
Zhanna Nemtsova drew attention to the fact that many in Russia do not know the details about the war in Ukraine and are not interested in them. Therefore, she considered it essential to educate the Russians, resorting to rational and emotional arguments. Irina Shcherbakova supported her. She stressed that the West should not be afraid of chaos in the event of the collapse of the current Russian government. In her opinion, such fears are fueled by the Kremlin itself and must be overcomed.
Other statements regarding the Russian invasion to Ukraine
Estonian Prime Minister Kaia Kallas is considered one of the most likely candidates for the post of NATO Secretary General after Jens Stoltenberg leaves his post in October 2023: “The only guarantee of security for Ukraine is NATO membership. We are now in NATO, and therefore we are not going through such terrible times as the Ukrainians.”
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed China’s initiative on the Ukraine settlement plan, saying, “As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China should use its influence to ensure world peace.”
Baerbock said she told the Chinese representative on Friday “that a just peace is not about rewarding the aggressor, but about protecting international law and those who have been attacked.”
The same message was conveyed to China by French and Italian diplomats.
Baerbock’s speech has already become a joke and a meme. In particular, she said: “If Putin does not turn his policy around 360 degrees, then there is no way to ensure the security of Ukraine on a long-term basis under his rule.” Multiple commentators reminded Madame Minister that in the case of a 360-degree turn, a person would be at the starting point and not at the opposite end.
SPD co-chairman Lars Klingbeil said, “Europe must increase its geopolitical importance in the world.”
Olaf Scholz stated there is no unity within Germany regarding sanctions against the Russian Federation and the supply of weapons to Kyiv.
Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki, during his speech at the Munich Security Conference, proposed to provide Ukraine with “exclusive conditions” for joining the EU. According to him, this will require an appropriate format for discussing this issue.
“If I could override the normal entry path, my answer is yes. We cannot allow this country to negotiate as an ordinary EU candidate,” he said. Morawiecki noted that he wants to achieve accelerated admission of Ukraine to the European Union, adding that the country should become part of the EU and NATO as soon as possible. He stressed that it is necessary to create a new, special process specifically for Kyiv. #munich23
Petro Poroshenko said at the Munich Conference: “For us, the main effect of the sanctions is how much Russia will lose in 2023 import revenue. Therefore, the priority is sanctions against the supply of Russian liquefied gas from the Yamal field and restrictions on transportation, including a list of icebreaking classes of gas carriers. Joint agreed decisions could cut Russian exports by almost $60 billion.”
Latvian President Egils Levits spoke: “Individual countries have the right to establish an international court against an aggressor; international law is flexible here and does not require a UN decision.” Estonian Prime Minister Kaia Kallas supported him: “No leader in the world should have immunity and can be prosecuted for crimes at the will of the international community.”
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace: “Problems have become apparent here. There is a political solution, it is true, but many countries are finding that their armies do not have serviceable tanks to supply. So the politicians sent their troops to the warehouses, and they had to declare that their tanks were either out of order or not repaired for deliveries to Ukraine. Or that it will take some time to improve the guns or the power plant.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also spoke about this. He commented that it would be difficult for the Western allies to collect two battalions of Leopard 2 tanks to send to Ukraine, as promised.
According to Wallace, NATO countries have painfully realised that their armies have weakened significantly over the past 30 years.
“There are numbers on how many tanks each country has. But there is a reality that tells us that very few of them are serviceable. For example, we didn’t even take 14 Challenger tanks for Ukraine from the warehouses where they were stored; they were taken off combat duty.”
According to the minister, the political decision was made, but the reality check came. This applies to tanks, ammunition, and other equipment. Finally, the tanks will be delivered to Ukraine, but it will take more time.
“We have to give the other partners a little more time. We must be honest in this regard. Tanks are not a miracle weapon for immediate victory in a war. But, of course, they are more effective than Russian tanks. But apart from that, the green light for the Challenger or Leopard was an extremely important signal for Ukraine,” the minister said.
Polish MEP Radosław Sikorski (former foreign minister and speaker of the Polish Sejm, one of the most pro-American Polish politicians): “As for European defence, I have already lost my voice, asking the question in the European Parliament: “What should happen on the periphery of Europe, to take defence seriously?” Now we at least have a budget – the Peace Fund, from which we buy weapons for Ukraine. Poland is almost doubling its defence spending, but this is unfair. Poland will defend the more prosperous countries in the West and spend much less on defence.
Sikorsky’s political opponent, Polish President Andrzej Duda: “In general, the situation between our (Polish and Ukrainian) societies and nations is now unprecedented in the context of recent centuries. I believe that we will all get through this difficult time. That the Ukrainians will endure it and defeat the Russians.”
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin: “Russia must pay a high price for attacking Ukraine. All 400 billion frozen Russian money should be spent on (rebuilding) Ukraine. The price for Russia for this attack must be high. If it is such that they will master, then a new attack will follow. Russia must lose this war.”
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: “I am a child of the Cold War … Ukraine must prevail in this war.”
The newly elected Czech president, NATO general Petr Pavel, who is due to take office in March, was very cautious: “If Russia collapses, then we may have more problems; we will have no one to negotiate disarmament with.” Therefore, he believes that the West should be more restrained in its desire to defeat Russia to avoid undesirable scenarios for such a defeat.
Finnish President Sauli Niinistö: “We must remember that the military component is number one in Russian society, in their economy, industry, everywhere. I assume that they constantly evaluate the situation with the war in Ukraine by their military success, and this is the only thing that worries them. I’m afraid this will continue in the future.”
Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk: “We frankly say that Ukraine’s victory depends not only on the quality of assistance but also on the speed of transfer of the necessary weapons.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen: “We must be able to help Ukraine; we must win this war. They will never win it by themselves; we must win it together… We must do more, we must act faster, but at the same time, we must not forget about Moldova and Georgia.”
NATO Assistant Secretary General Camille Grand: “There is a solid sense of unity in ideas and views of the West in Munich, a growing and open feeling that the war is becoming existential not only for Ukraine and Russia but also for Europe.”
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said: “The Gulf Cooperation Council has a unified position on the conflict in Ukraine; we vote in unison regarding the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the invasion. However, we continue to have an open dialogue with Russia, as all of us in the GCC believe it is necessary to keep the channels of communication open.”
Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson on resources for the reconstruction of Ukraine: “We have several hundred billion dollars of frozen Russian assets. It is necessary to see how much money is available, to determine the legal conditions for using these funds for the restoration of Ukraine and other purposes. This practical issue needs to be addressed now and will have long-term consequences.”
Based on the statements of Finnish President Sauli Niinistö at the Munich Conference, the country adhered to joining NATO at the same time as Sweden. Still, it is ready to join alone if this is not possible. Finland’s defence minister told AP on the sidelines of the Munich Conference that his country was prepared to join NATO without Sweden.
Meeting in “G7 + Ukraine” format
On the initiative of Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa, a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the G7 countries and Ukraine took place on the sidelines of the conference. As the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, stated, “We talked about everything necessary for the victory of Ukraine in 2023. There will be rapid arms deliveries and new sanctions. Russia must understand that we will not tire of counteracting its aggression.”
The G7 ministers of foreign affairs agreed to maintain and strengthen sanctions against Russia and call on third parties to stop supporting Russia. This corresponded with the position of Borrell, who complained that Western countries failed to persuade the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America to join the anti-Putin coalition.
The G7 countries supported the position of Kuleba, who stated that Ukraine would not go for a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Russia: “We should now only fight with Russia,” Kuleba said.
The issue of confrontation between China and the United States
Issues of relations between China and the US and China and the EU were placed in a separate block. China was represented at the conference by one of the most influential members of the Xi Jinping team, a member of the Politburo in charge of international policy issues, and (until the end of 2022) former Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
During the conference, the Head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made several statements:
– Taiwan has never been a state and will never become a sovereign state. This is the state of affairs today; this is the status quo. It is not China that wants to change it, but the secessionist forces in Taiwan. Taiwan must abide by the basic principles of the Chinese order – this is a condition for maintaining peace. We hope to respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and will not use double standards here.
– We don’t think it’s acceptable; it’s a demarche. So many balloons have been launched into our atmosphere; what now to shoot down everything with rockets? This does not show the strength of America but rather the opposite. We urge the United States not to take such steps and to eliminate the negative consequences of the measures taken to improve our relations. Why make such a sensation?
– The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be ensured. Power politics is a path to instability that significantly damages the cause of peace. Interference in other countries internal affairs under any pretext violates the fundamental norms of international relations.
– Any violation of the principle of one China on the issue of Taiwan and an attempt to create two Chinas or China and Taiwan is all a violation of the territorial integrity and poses a real threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. As for Ukraine, China’s position is to support peace talks.
China will prepare a position paper on a political settlement of the conflict in Ukraine by the end of February, said Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee.
“China and the EU should ‘return bilateral ties to pre-epidemic levels as soon as possible,’” Wang Yi told his EU counterpart Josep Borrell during a February 18 meeting.
“Both sides must remain open and cooperate, resist disengagement, and work together to maintain the stability of global production and supply chains,” Wang Yi said.
During the meeting with Anthony Blinken, Wang Yi maintained strict communication with his American colleague. “As a great power, the United States should promote a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis and not add fuel to the fire and look for opportunities to take advantage of itself,” Wang Yi said.
Blinken was not indebted: “It is pretty clear that there are things that China cannot and should not do to interfere (with the actions of the West). By that, we mean providing Russia with military equipment (..) or systematically circumventing the sanctions (of the West) that are intended to put pressure on Russia to end this aggression… And we made it clear to our Chinese colleagues all the time after that, that they would consider any provision of military assistance or evasion of sanctions as a severe problem for themselves and for many other countries of the world.
Blinken also said in an interview with CBS that Washington has information about the supply of non-lethal products by China for the needs of the Russian army and reason to believe that Beijing may also supply lethal weapons and/or ammunition. “We are watching this very closely. So far, we have seen Chinese companies – and in China, of course, there is no real distinction between private companies and the state – and these companies, as we have seen, provide non-lethal support to Russia for use in Ukraine. And we have concerns, based on the information we have, that they are considering providing lethal support as well. So we have made it very clear to them that this will create a serious problem for us and our relationship with China,” Blinken said.
According to him, American intelligence has reason to doubt the sincerity of the words of the head of the office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China, Wang Yi, at the Munich Security Conference that Beijing is also preparing some peace plan to end the war in Ukraine.
Chinese harshness is explained by the fact that Beijing failed to push through Washington in a “ball” attack. The tone of the White House concerning China has not changed; Pentagon officials and Kevin McCarthy are also going to go to Taiwan.
So it is interesting how Beijing will now try to take revenge on the United States on the Ukrainian track. Xi Jinping’s “road map” for Ukraine should surprise; otherwise, by March, when the official rotations in the leadership take place in the CPC, Chairman Xi and Wang Yi will have nothing to present to the party as his achievements.
Moldovian issue
The Moldovan issue aroused particular interest. In recent weeks, attention has been riveted on Moldova, especially against the backdrop of statements by the Ukrainian authorities about alleged documents confirming Russia’s intentions to organise a coup in this country.
During the conference, Moldovan President Maia Sandu said: “We lack the support of the inhabitants to obtain consent to join NATO. This is the result of Russian propaganda. Therefore, the question of changing the status of neutrality does not arise now. But we need to strengthen our security.
“Russia is waging a cyber war with us. We need help in the fight against propaganda and disinformation,” Sandu said. At the same time, she admitted: “There is no direct military threat to Moldova; Ukraine ensures our security.”
The Prime Minister of Denmark expressed a “profound” phrase: “In Moldova, most of the population supports Russia. Moldova needs to be helped with energy resources. We need to develop it.”
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu on the sidelines of the Munich conference on Friday, February 17, said that the US was deeply concerned about Russia’s attempts to destabilise the situation in Moldova. “We strongly support Moldova, its security, its independence, its territorial integrity and the significant reforms that the president and government are undertaking,” the US Secretary of State said.
An attempt to negotiate the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict
On February 17, within the framework of the Munich Security Conference, a meeting was held between President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, mediated by Anthony Blinken.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said before the meeting: “We believe Azerbaijan and Armenia have a truly historic opportunity to establish lasting peace after more than 30 years of conflict. The parties have again focused on the peace process, including through direct negotiations, with the EU and us. The United States stands ready to do whatever it takes to support this effort, whether directly with our friends, in a trilateral format like this, or with other international partners.”
The meeting lasted almost an hour and a half. Upon its completion, it was felt that several issues had moved forward.
Ilham Aliyev himself commented on the meeting:
▪ The meeting went well; many issues were discussed, including the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The main point is that the peace agreement should be organised based on international norms and principles. Therefore, it is unacceptable to have any provision in Karabakh.
▪ Three days ago, we received new responses to our proposals from Armenia. We are studying them. At first glance, there is progress in Armenia’s position, but this is not enough.
▪ If we are discussing border delimitation, checkpoints should be established both at both ends of the Zangezur corridor and at the border between the Lachin region and Armenia.
Nikol Pashinyan: “The tripartite document signed by the President of Azerbaijan mentions exactly Nagorno-Karabakh, and the same document says that there is a Lachin corridor, which should work without interruption.”
Aliyev also said: “We have several platforms to discuss normalising relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. One of them is the so-called Brussels format. During the meeting with the President of the Council of the European Union, Charles Michel, we reaffirmed our commitment to the process. Today, during a trilateral summit hosted by Secretary Blinken, we also discussed the Brussels Process as a trilateral format. And I think there is a common understanding that this is only a tripartite format, including the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Russian political scientist Andrey Suzdaltsev (representative of Sergey Karaganov’s team) wrote: “Armenia is moving away from Russia. Russia withdraws from Transcaucasia. Azerbaijan and Turkey remain the winners.”
Experts are almost unanimous in their opinion: “The United States managed to become an effective mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while Russia turned out to be much weaker in this status. Instead of the long “peace summits” and meetings organised by Moscow, the United States Secretary of State Blinken in Munich held a single meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev, at which the leaders of Baku and Yerevan were able to quite successfully resolve most of the contentious issues.
Miscellaneous
The leader of the Belarusian opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya at the Munich Conference: “Belarus must withdraw from the CSTO and the Union State with the Russian Federation.”
US Secretary of State Blinken, during a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, expressed gratitude to him for Serbia’s support of Ukraine and also discussed issues of normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
Next winter will be harder for the EU than this one due to the “gas crisis,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, who is attending the Munich Security Conference. Therefore, Birol considers it necessary to create a “new master plan for European industry.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in Munich that Iran is selling lethal weapons to 50 countries and working to destroy Israel directly and through terrorist groups. Gallant also urged the international community to take urgent and swift steps to stop Iran’s arms deals and create an effective punishment mechanism, highlighting the threat of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The Soros’ letter
During the Munich Security Conference, billionaire George Soros said that Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia would lead to the collapse of the latter as an empire.
Until last October, he said, Ukraine was winning on the battlefield, but then Russia, with the help of Iran, began using drones and bombing critical infrastructure with missiles, which forced Kyiv to take a defensive stance.
Soros believes that the Russian army is in a desperate situation, has bad commanders, is poorly equipped and demoralised, and therefore Russian President Vladimir Putin began to actively use Wagner PMC terrorists, which brought some success to the Kremlin.
“Putin ordered Prigozhin to achieve victory by the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. He is trying to surround the Ukrainian defenders of the city of Bakhmut, where he has numerical superiority. Perhaps he will succeed, but I consider this unlikely because the Ukrainian army is putting up strong resistance, and as soon as Ukraine can use the promised weapons, everything will change,” the billionaire emphasised.
In his opinion, Ukraine has a window of opportunity in the spring to carry out a counter-offensive with the help of Western weapons – this offensive by Ukrainian soldiers should decide the fate of a full-scale invasion.
“The countries of the former USSR are looking forward to the defeat of the Russians in Ukraine because they want to defend their independence. This means that a Ukrainian victory will lead to the collapse of the empire. Russia will no longer pose a threat to Europe and the world,” he concluded.
Soros also said that US and Ukrainian presidents Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky agreed at a December 22nd meeting that the only way to end the current conflict is to win it. However, Biden warned Zelensky that there are limits to what he can do for Kyiv, the businessman claims.
Also, during the conference, the message of Soros, “Global warming. Hot Wars. Closed Society”, was actively discussed. In it, he urged the participants of the conference and world leaders to return to the environmental agenda – in particular, to spend billions of dollars on the creation of artificial clouds in Antarctica.
Results
The results of the Munich Conference are already being actively discussed in the media.
Les Echos: A dialogue of the deaf took place in Munich. The willingness of NATO members to step up their military support for Ukraine worries the countries of the Global South, who favour a speedy resolution of the conflict. China takes advantage of this and promises a peace proposal in the coming days.
NYT: Munich’s consensus is that an era of intense and insidious great power rivalry is looming. The war unites the West in Ukraine, but it faces a belligerent Russia, a confrontational China, and a global South. The conversations on the stage of the Munich conference and in the bar are mainly about Ukraine. The potential duration of the war (long), the sustainability of Western unity (significant), the speed of delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukrainian forces (inadequate), and Mr Putin’s mindset (stubbornness) are analysed but do not clarify the issue for a year ahead. “I guess that in a year we will be about where we are now,” Stephen M. Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, said of the war. A European war involving nuclear power has given rise to a new era that does not yet have a name. There is a growing concern in Europe about next year’s US presidential election and the changes in US policy that it could bring about. Tirana Hassan, executive director of Human Rights Watch, says the West’s current inconsistency in applying international rules undermines Western support for the war in Ukraine. One of the themes of the Munich conference was the West’s realisation that in Africa, India, South America and elsewhere, attitudes towards war are much more ambiguous or even hostile to the narrative of Putin’s unprovoked brutality.
Timothy Garton Ash, British historian and professor of European studies at Oxford University: “The West is more united, but we are far from the rest of the countries.”
In general, following the results of the Munich Conference, we have heard the voice of the collective West. There are three more significant events ahead – Biden’s speech in Poland, Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly and China’s initiatives to resolve the situation in Ukraine. By the end of February, the puzzles may finally come together.
