Spoiler: during the so-called “SMO”, the Russian military destroyed 268 out of less than two hundred aircraft, 98 out of 47 Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, as well as 52 HIMARS MLRS out of 38 delivered to Ukraine and 2898 tanks out of 2800 possible. Having lost 90% of their air defence systems, the Ukrainian military is shooting down most of the missiles and drones that regularly attack Ukrainian cities and continue defending along the entire front line.
Since the first day of the full-scale invasion of the Russian occupation forces into the territory of Ukraine, both sides have been publishing daily reports on achievements, losses and the general situation along the entire front line. But, of course, in addition to the war on the battlefield, there is also a fierce war in the information space, which is often total propaganda without any logic.
Each side of the conflict has its official speakers and a number of “talking heads” who are most actively involved in introducing the necessary theses into public opinion. The official speaker of the Russian side is the well-known head of the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Russian Defense Ministry, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov.
For ten months of the three-day “SMO”, Konashenkov became a real hero of social networks, in which his statements were regularly ridiculed, which he made daily.
Ascolta decided to sum up the results of 2022 by counting all the “losses” of the Ukrainian side, announced by Igor Konashenkov from February 24 to December 31.
Warning: do not try this on your own and at home. The ruthlessness of the information voiced at briefings by the Russian Defense Ministry can cause serious harm to the psyche of the average reader.
Methodology: Recently, several publications have calculated Ukrainian losses declared by Russian propaganda. At the same time, each determined its methodology or sources of information from which the initial data were taken (the number of equipment in service, foreign supplies, etc.).
In our calculations, we decided to use the highest number of official sources in the defence departments of the Russian Federation. Such an approach will not allow us to accuse ourselves of bias or distortion of information. So, to understand the initial data on the number of certain types of military equipment in service with the Ukrainian army, we started from the information published in the monthly report and analytical magazine of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, “Foreign Military Review”. This magazine has existed since 1921 and is a very authoritative periodical among a narrow audience. Therefore, we dare to assume that similar data is used by the military leadership of the Russian Federation for planning operations. After all, the old Soviet principle (as old and Soviet as the military leadership of the Russian Federation) says: “everything that is written in the newspapers cannot be a lie.”
The 6th issue of the Foreign Military Review magazine for 2022 was partly devoted to the so-called “SMO”, or rather, the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine. This section states that “on the day the special operation began, more than 2,800 tanks, 8,215 armoured vehicles, 3,500 artillery systems, 348 MLRS units (300, 220, 122 mm), 230 aircraft (aircraft, helicopters, UAVs). By all parameters, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were the third largest army in Europe after Russia and Turkey.
In earlier releases (2018-2019), we found more specific numbers for individual types of weapons. They were taken as the basis for calculating the “losses” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, declared in regular briefings by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The mysterious “military facilities” on Ukrainian territory
From the very beginning of hostilities (that is, from February 24, 2022), Igor Konashenkov began to report on the defeat or liquidation of many military facilities that were destroyed daily and in fantastic quantities. Thus, as of February 25, 211 military facilities were destroyed without any clarification. By March 9, according to the Konashenkov, there were 2,800 such objects.
Since then, this number has continued to snowball. And only in early June he noticeably changed the focus in daily briefings, significantly reducing the number of references to mysterious “military facilities” and then wholly excluding them from his reports.
As of December 31, 2022, the number of destroyed Ukrainian “military facilities” amounted to 4964.
Military aviation and UAVs
On March 6, on the tenth day of the full-scale invasion of the Russian occupation forces into the territory of Ukraine, during a regular briefing by the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov said that almost all of Ukraine’s combat-ready aviation had been destroyed. At the same time, throughout 2022, in the same briefings, new information was communicated about Ukrainian aviation attacks on Russian facilities and the Russian military’s destruction of Ukrainian military aircraft.
At the end of May, the American edition of Foreign Policy announced that the countries of Eastern Europe were transferring Soviet Su-25 combat aircraft and Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine. The Russian media actively disseminated the same information.
Also, Poland has repeatedly declared its readiness to transfer MiG-29 combat aircrafts. True, in return, they wanted to get American F-16 fighters, which was categorically opposed in Washington. Later, Slovakia made a similar proposal, the government of which announced its readiness to sell 11 MiG-29s to Ukraine. By the end of 2022, aircraft deliveries have yet to be made.
According to information from open sources (including the abovementioned periodical), as of February 23, 2022, the Ukrainian Air Force had 23 Su-24 aircrafts, 31 Su-25 aircrafts, 34 Su-27 aircrafts, and 37 MiG-29 aircrafts. Also, 30 Mi-8 helicopters were on the balance sheet of the Ukrainian Air Force, and two more were transferred by Latvia after the start of hostilities.
According to the data announced by Igor Konashenkov at the briefings of the Russian Defense Ministry, from February 24 to December 31, 268 Ukrainian combat aircraft were destroyed, as well as 128 helicopters. Interestingly, according to open data, the total number of combat aircrafts of all types in service with the Ukrainian army (as of February 23, 2022) is 193 units.
Most often, the briefings did not indicate the models of the downed aircraft but only stated the total number of losses per day or a specific period. At the same time, it was indicated that the Russian military destroyed two An-26 transport aircrafts, seven Su-24 fighters, 16 Su-25 fighters, two Su-27 fighters and 14 MiG-29 fighters.
A similar situation is observed with helicopters. According to Konashenkov, 128 units were destroyed during the hostilities, of which 23 were Mi-8s, four were Mi-24s, and one was Mi-17s.
Recall, according to data from the official magazine of the Russian Defense Ministry, as of February 23, 2023, there were 230 aircraft (airplanes, helicopters, UAVs) in Ukraine.
As for UAVs, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, there are also more than enough of them in Ukraine. During the so-called “SMO”, Igor Konashenkov announced the annihilation of 1832 unmanned aerial vehicles, 92 of which were the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAV.
And if by the total number of UAVs, it can be assumed that we are talking about all types of drones that are actively used in the combat zone, then the situation with the well-known Turkish drones is much more interesting. According to official data, at the time of the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine was armed with 12 Bayraktar TB2 UAVs (4 systems). Also, according to the Turkish side, after December 24, Ukraine received another 35 UAVs (15 for free and 20 for half the cost).
Of course, it can be assumed that the number of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs received by Ukraine differs from the publicly announced figures; moreover, back in December 2021, the American edition of Bloomberg reported that Ukraine acquired more than ten Bayraktar TB2 UAVs from Turkey (this corresponds to official data – 12 UAVs). At the same time, in May 2022, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that they had destroyed about 90 Bayraktar TB2 UAVs in Ukraine.
It is important to note that during the entire production of Bayraktar TB2, about 300 units of this type of UAV were produced (official data as of May 2022). At the same time, this drone is in service with at least 13 states, including Azerbaijan, Qatar, Morocco, Pakistan, Poland, Tajikistan, Turkey and others. That is, it is hardly reasonable to say that almost a third of all Bayraktar TB2 UAVs produced in Ukraine were destroyed.
At the same time, even after the colossal losses announced in May, Russia continued to tirelessly destroy Turkish bayraktars in the Ukrainian sky, although in much smaller quantities. As of December 31, 2022, the last Bayraktar TB2 UAV was shot down at the end of September. At least, this was stated by Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov.
Western artillery: “favoured” targets of Russian propaganda
Since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, rocket artillery has been one of the most sought-after weapons used on both sides. According to various estimates, about 20 thousand artillery shells of various calibres can be fired daily. For this, several multiple-launch rocket systems are used, both in service with the Ukrainian army (mainly Soviet MLRS) and are actively provided by Western states (NATO-style MLRS).
Among the Western MLRS supplied to Ukraine, several of the most famous models are not inferior in their popularity to the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAVs. Firstly, we are talking about the American high-mobility artillery missile system HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System). This system can carry six MLRS rockets or one ATACMS operational-tactical ballistic missile. Both modifications are actively used in Ukraine and demonstrate high efficiency. The HIMARS is also interchangeable with the M270A1 MLRS, carrying half of its ammunition load. This system has also proven itself well in Ukraine.
According to official information, the first HIMARS MLRS arrived in Ukraine on June 23, 2022. At the end of November, the Pentagon published an official report which indicated that Ukraine should receive a total of 38 HIMARS systems, 20 of which are already actively used at the front. At the same time, according to Igor Konashenkov, 52 systems have already been “destroyed” by the Russian military.
In this case, it is important to clarify one fact: in his statements, Konashenkov repeatedly used the phrases “HIMARS launcher”, “HIMARS platoon” (may consist of 4 launchers) and “HIMARS battery” (may consist of 8 launchers). Of course, logically, such concepts are not used in the Armed Forces of Ukraine because of the small number of such weapons. But we must warn that in the calculations, we started from the classical measurements of these concepts.
Similar “exaggerations” are observed among other MLRS “destroyed” types by the Russian military. For example, out of about 200 Grad launchers that were in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (as of 2014), 239 were destroyed in 2022. Of the approximately 30 Uragan launchers, 36 were “destroyed”.
In total, in 2022, in the briefings of the Russian Ministry of Defense, it was announced the destruction of 348 MLRS of various types. Furthermore, the same number of MLRS for the armament of the Ukrainian army is indicated in the 6th issue of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation bulletin, “Foreign Military Review” (June 2022). That is, now, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Ukraine has lost all its own MLRS and is fighting only those that Western partners supplied.
In addition to Western-style MLRS (Polish Crabs, German MARS II and Gepard, French Caesar), the American M777 howitzer is very popular among Russian propagandists. This howitzer can fire Excalibur-guided projectiles, the effective range of which, depending on the modification, exceeds 40 kilometres and has a possible circular deviation of 10 meters from the target. At the same time, initially, the United States supplied the M777 without special digital equipment for using Excalibur missiles. Still, in September 2022, it was decided to expand deliveries to include this type of missile. Later it became known about the supply of Excalibur missiles by Canada.
The first M777 howitzers were delivered to Ukraine on May 4, 2022. It is known from open sources that, in total, Ukraine received 142 such howitzers. At the same time, as of December 31, 2022, the Russian side announced the destruction of 63 items. Also, information about frequent breakdowns of these howitzers is regularly discussed in the Russian media, in connection with which there are allegedly practically no M777 workers left on the battlefield.
In addition to American howitzers, Russian troops are actively “destroying” Soviet counterparts, which are in service with the Ukrainian army. Among the howitzers most mentioned in the briefings of the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is worth highlighting the “Hyacinth-B”, “D-20” (“destroyed” by 68 more than is in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and “D-30” (“destroyed” by 18 more, what is in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine), as well as “Msta-B”. In total, Igor Konashenkov announced the destruction of 526 howitzers during the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The air defence system of Ukraine is entirely “annihilated”
Another myth that is actively used by Russian propaganda concerns Ukrainian air defence. In early March, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov said that the Russian military had destroyed 90% of Ukraine’s air defence, due to which Russia completely controls the sky.
From February 24 to December 31, 2022, the RF Ministry of Defense announced the elimination of 169 S-300 complexes in Ukraine. At the same time, as of February 24, according to information from open sources, the Ukrainian army was armed with 250 complexes.
True, in mid-July, Russian military experts, for some reason, rolled back and began to declare 80% of the destroyed air defence of Ukraine.
Such statements are heard regularly. For example, one of the latest appeared in mid-October. A Russian military expert said the Ukrainian air defence system is destroyed and can no longer withstand Russian missiles and drones. At the same time, despite regular massive attacks, the Ukrainian air defence forces are improving the statistics of downed missiles and UAVs every time. For example, in early January, all 84 Russian UAVs fired in Ukraine were shot down.
Although back in early March, Igor Konashenkov announced the destruction of 90% of all Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems, as of December 31, 2022, in the briefings of the Russian Defense Ministry, there were only 31 Buk air defence systems noted as “destroyed”, while, according to official information, the Ukrainian army is armed with 72 launchers. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, less than 50% were destroyed.
At the same time, Konashenkov reported on the destruction of 30 Ukrainian S-125 air defence systems, of which, according to open data, only eight are in service with the Ukrainian army.
There are only captured armoured vehicles left
According to the statements of the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian side also suffers colossal losses among armoured vehicles. First of all, we are talking about tanks, which, as of December 31, 2022, were “destroyed” even more than were at the disposal of the Ukrainian army before the start of the war – 2898 (according to open data, Ukraine had 1421 tanks, as of February 23 2022).
Of course, one can appeal to the fact that over the past ten months, the Ukrainian allies have also transferred tanks. Indeed, in open sources, there is information about 682 tanks received from Poland, Slovakia and other Western states. Moreover, another 552 tanks were captured by the Ukrainian military on the battlefield (again, according to official data). But even if you sum all these figures together, the number of tanks will turn out to be less than the one that the Russian military “destroyed”, according to Konashenkov.
There are other points worth remarking on:
- According to Konashenkov’s remarks, 602 “command posts” and “control posts” were destroyed in 10 months of hostilities in Ukraine. Unfortunately, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation does not provide additional explanations regarding these designations.
- In 2022, Igor Konashenkov announced three times that the “Kraken”, Ukrainian Armed Forces’ special forces unit, had been destroyed. At the same time, at the end of December, it became known that this unit took part in the liberation of a settlement in Luhansk Oblast.
Of course, wartime propaganda, especially the Russian one, is nothing new. As early as 1928, the British diplomat Lord Ponsonby wrote a book, “Lies in Time of War”, which outlined the basic principles of military propaganda.
The seventh principle of military propaganda says: “We have very little losses, the enemy is losing big. During the war, losses in manpower and equipment are called not actual, but guided by their benefit”.
Seems like someone in the Kremlin overdid the calculations a little in pursuing profit.
