By the end of the year, the Russian president is trying to pay more and more attention to the so-called “special military operation”, which was supposed to end on February 27, but will be extended indefinitely. But, of course, it was not 301 days of hostilities that became the reason for such a massive event, especially since earlier Putin managed to visit the headquarters of the united military branches, talk in the Kremlin with the so-called leaders of the so-called “republics”, and also, according to Peskov, visit the so-called “SMO”.
Today, during a collegium in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the results were summed up, and plans for the next year were announced. By forgoing the annual meeting with journalists and the yearly message, Putin has chosen to focus on the Ukrainian issue, demonstrating that this is currently most important to the Kremlin.
In essence, Putin’s message was a repetition of already well-known theses about NATO, the West, Russia’s invincibility and the new world order. But, at the same time, it is worth analyzing in detail individual statements that determine the future policy of the Kremlin, both concerning Ukraine and the West as a whole.
Putin’s key theses:
- “Information about NATO forces and armaments should be analyzed and used for the development of the Russian armed forces, as well as the vast experience gained by the units during the “special operation.”
- “In January, the “Admiral Gorshkov” ship will enter combat service with the latest Zircons.”
- Putin announced the need to develop and use drones in the army – they should be everywhere.
- “Officers and sergeants who gained experience during the “special operation” should be assigned to new positions as a matter of priority.”
- “Our servicemen must have everything at the highest level, including weapons, night vision devices, there can be no trifles on the battlefield, first-aid kits, uniforms, shoes – everything must be at a high level, modern and reliable.”
- Putin drew the attention of the Ministry of Defense that there are no restrictions on the financing of the army – the country provides everything that the military needs.
- “Russia has good experience developing underwater drones, and the industry can build air and ground drones.
- “Artificial intelligence technology should be used at all levels of decision-making.”
- “300,000 people have been recruited into the ranks of the armed forces, 150,000 of them are training at the training grounds, and this is a sufficient reserve for conducting an operation.”
- “After the collapse of the USSR, Russia wanted to become part of the “civilized” world, but we were not expected there.”
- “I still consider the Ukrainian nation as fraternal.”
- “We will not engage in the militarization of the country and the militarization of the economy.”
Based on the speech of the Russian president, several main conclusions can be drawn. First, even though Putin officially declared that Russia would not take a military footing, this process has been launched and partially implemented. Second, Russia is preparing to fight not only with Ukraine. Russia is preparing for new hotspots of unrest on its borders or with the participation of its main allies in Europe, Africa and Asia. Hence the mobilisation processes, which, according to some information, will be extended after the New Year holidays, and the expansion of military budgets, and work on the mistakes, leading to severe purges among the military leadership.
Secondly, Russia concluded the reform of the defence sector. Those processes that were launched back in 2007, as well as those technologies that were presented in 2017 (hypersonic and other types of missiles, new kinds of weapons, etc.), clearly have their effectiveness but need additional optimisation; first of all, human resources. Putin’s statement that officers and sergeants who gained experience during the so-called “special operation” should be assigned to new positions as a matter of priority is not only a motivation for the combat personnel but also a direct hint to the military leadership, which does not meet those requests and challenges which Russia is currently facing. Of course, this moment is perilous for Ukraine and the entire Western world. Russia has completely lost the information war and is increasingly demonstrating an inability to achieve its desired goals in Ukraine, but it does not intend to give up and is trying to learn from its mistakes.
Thirdly, Putin is betting on new types of weapons that can be used in the war against Ukraine. Thus, he not only reminds the world that it is too early to talk about the number of remaining missiles but also demonstrates that rumours about intentions to use nuclear weapons are still just rumours. Of course, there are reasons for reassurance, but obviously not for joy. Unfortunately for the Russian president, the territory of Ukraine continues to be a convenient testing ground for testing all possible types of weapons that have been developed in recent years.
Putin also emphasises the need to develop new technologies. In particular, various kinds of UAVs are clearly inferior to their world counterparts. The war against Ukraine demonstrated the backwardness of the Russian military-industrial complex in several areas, one of which is drones. Many scandals around the use of Iranian UAVs under the Russian brand obviously did not go unnoticed and forced us to look for a solution to this problem. Most likely, the Iranian-Russian Geraniums will soon turn into Russian drones and be gradually modernised, considering the combat experience gained.
In general, Putin’s speech can be wrapped to several main theses:
- In the upcoming years, the world will be restless, but Russia is ready for new wars. At what, how to start, and finish them, defending their interests.
- Russia has learned from its mistakes in the so-called “SMO” and will try to correct them shortly.
- Ukraine is still seen as a brotherly people but is now more profitable as a military testing ground for new types of weapons. But if anything, the West is to blame for everything.
According to Ascolta, Russia expects a severe escalation in relations between Belarus and Poland, which could lead to the emergence of a new hot spot in Eastern Europe. This issue became one of the key ones during Putin’s recent visit to Minsk and meeting with Lukashenka. Also, Serbia and Armenia are considered among the potential sources of unrest. In this case, Putin’s “militarization” is an attempt to demonstrate readiness for turbulent times and begin to form a conditional military bloc that claims leadership in the new conditions.
At the same time, it is important to pay attention to several statements by Sergei Shoigu. Instead, they are a reflection of the internal political situation in the country and also reflect the main goals of Moscow, including in Ukraine:
- “The priority task of the Russian Federation for 2023 is the continuation of the “special operation” until the “complete fulfilment of its goals”.
- “Because of the build-up of NATO forces, Russia needs to create a grouping of troops in the north-west of the country”.
- “It is necessary to create two strategic territorial associations of the armed forces – the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.”
- “It is necessary to form new divisions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and army corps in Donetsk and Lugansk.”
- “Step by step increase the age of conscription of citizens from 18 to 21 years, and raise the limit to 30 years”.
- “It is necessary to increase the size of the Russian army to 1.5 million people, including 670,000 contract soldiers.”
With his speech, Shoigu is trying in every possible way to shift the focus from the failures in the so-called “SMO”. At the same time, the main theses come down to the following: firstly, Russia will not abandon its plans for Ukraine and is ready to use all the necessary forces to achieve them. Secondly, Shoigu makes it clear to the West that Russia is prepared for a direct clash with NATO in case of further escalation and unwillingness to agree to Moscow’s terms.
At present, such statements (both Putin and Shoigu) are nothing more than an attempt to once again push through their negotiating position. But, if the answer does not follow, then soon, the world may face a more global threat that will concern not only Ukraine but also a significant part of Europe.
Shortly, one should follow the actions of both the United States and China, whose positions will be decisive for the security of Europe and Ukraine and for curbing Russia’s militaristic ambitions.
